“We will feel the pressure on our skin”

28/11/2006 Interview by Rafael TEIMURAZYAN

See also: Should become a factor

– You mentioned that it’s necessary to create such factors, which in the aspect of Azerbaijan, would put that country’s opportunity to get Karabagh back in jeopardy. You suggest populating the territories, which are under the control of Karabagh. Won’t this create new tension and barriers?

-Mass population automatically creates a new factor for the conflict resolution. It becomes a great humanitarian problem. Imagine if these territories were populated by one million people. This already means that based on the population, Azerbaijan will have a serious problem, just like the one in the Middle East. In that case it will have to make serious compromises. It won’t blame us of being aggressive any more. These territories would become an anti-Azerbaijani front. Population will mean that these territories are necessary for the people, who live there. Indeed the reduction of territories (not only among Armenians) creates a high level of migration. Where are the Armenians who migrated from Azerbaijan? Armenia, the historical homeland, is empty. Hardly anyone lives there. Even the ones, who lived there, have gradually left over the period of ten years. And finally the fact that these territories are not populated doesn’t create a mild attitude for Armenians among different international organizations. I ensure you that after the population of those territories, all the resolutions will be milder regarding the conflict resolution on behalf of Armenians. We should understand that only one factor can fix our problem of waiting. That is the demography. We should realize that the Karabagh issue must be revised in the course of 30, 50, 60 years.

– It’s not hard to assume that the mass population of Armenians in those territories will instigate the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations even more. How will we respond to such reaction on the part of Azerbaijan?

– In the world, in particular in our region, countries must understand that if one state is weak it will have to recede to its neighbor. Azerbaijan’s possible attack on us doesn’t depend on such actions. I’m not calling for military confrontation. Not at all. I’d only like to mention that we either accept serious compromises during negotiations or should do something about it because time is not on our side. A great evidence of that is the gradual roughening of the Azerbaijani attitude. This means that Azerbaijan is now stronger than us.

– Don’t you think that the government knows that time is not on our side?

– I don’t think so. Armenian authorities think that they have become professionals in the Karabagh conflict. They think they are smarter than Aliyev and that’s why they are going to win.

– In that case what do we get out of prolonging the negotiations?

– The authorities think that since their power lasts longer the people will benefit from it.
 
– People speak a lot assuming that if Armenia and Karabagh were democratic countries, the attitude of the international community would positively change because nobody would wish to annex the democratic Karabagh with undemocratic Azerbaijan. Can the democracy level in Armenia and Karabagh be linked with the factors that you mentioned?

– There is some truth here. However the reason why we want Armenia and Karabagh to be democratic is not the fact of changing the opinion of the international community about us. Democracy won’t ever become an automatic factor for us. The purpose why we need democracy is that the Armenian would consider Armenia his/her fatherland. The Armenians need to realize that we have justice in business, politics, social and cultural matters so that they start to invest more in Armenia and make it flourish… That’s the reason why we need democracy.

– You mentioned earlier that gradually Armenian-Turkish relationships are deteriorating. What do you mean by that?

– I notice that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict may gradually convert into an Armenian-Turkish conflict. Turkey is a neighboring country and Armenians should take that into account. I think that we’ll make a great historical mistake by connecting the Armenian Genocide with the issue of Turkish EU membership. The thing is that we should use any appropriate moment to establish normal relations with Turkey. Turkey wants to become a member of EU. This is profitable for both Turkey and I strongly believe Europe as well because this way Europe will be able to solve its labor issues. Employment has gone down by 2-3 times in the labor market of Europe, The reason is not that the economy has grown; the reason is that new labor resources don’t help the economy. That’s why Europe needs Turkey. Another issue is that Europe is not ready to carry the burden of Turkey’s comparably undeveloped economy. I understand that my opinion is going to oppose the opinion of most of Armenians, who wish that Turkey suffers. At present it turns out that the benefit of Turkey is to go towards the West. In general the developing countries either go West or East (here we see Armenia). North and South are excluded (the sea). And now Europe is trying to hinder the integration of Turkey into Europe. Here they use the Armenian Genocide Issue as well. I believe that it would be better if we said that the Armenian Genocide worries us a lot but we don’t want it to become an obstacle for Turkey’s integration to Europe. The real benefit of Armenia is to see Turkey become an EU member as soon as possible. What I’m saying right now is no secret. If I’m not mistaken the country’s President has once mentioned in the Council of Europe summit that Armenia doesn’t want to see the Genocide issue an obstacle for Turkey-EU relations, however the history afterwards showed that we let Europe use the Genocide factor as an obstacle in hindering Turkey’s European integration. I remember the Congress of Verona of 1822 and the raising of the Eastern Issue. Only Armenians focused on that and this ended with the Armenian Genocide in the late 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. We should learn from history. If Turkey doesn’t go to the West we’ll be the ones to suffer. Turkey will turn to the East, strengthen its Eastern policy. The Europeans will sooner or later establish friendly ties with Turkey. We are struggling to make sure our Genocide is recognized, however it has nothing to do with Turkey’s EU membership. Otherwise we will become a solicitor in the EU-Turkey relations and forget that our neighbor is Turkey, not Europe. The people, who insist that EU must consider the Genocide issue before letting Turkey join the EU, must be considered traitors. We will benefit a lot if Turkey becomes an EU member. Today’s Turkey is not what it used to be ten years ago. Ten years ago there was no hostility against Armenia. Now there is. Let’s not forget that it’s a great Islamic state. By using us, Europe closes Turkey’s way to the West. It means that by helping Europe we are making it harder for us, by instigating that Turkey turns to our direction. This is foolish. Armenia must actively help Turkey become an EU member because it will give us a chance to have relations with Turkey. The Genocide Issue must be solved with Turkey.

– And one last question. A lot is said about the fact that the states of the region should be included in a single security system, for which Armenia must join the NATO. In what security structure do you see Armenia?

– I strongly believe that at this moment the Southern Caucasus cannot be a real partner for either NATO or HAPK. I am sure that in the event of a new conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan the member states of the HAPK will not mediate. At present the geopolitical situation in the world is developing in a way, which makes Europe think that it would be wiser if the East and West conflict was solved by Russia. That’s why it does its best to dispose the countries, such as Georgia and Baltic counties against Russia. The Southern Caucasus states are in a triple geopolitical game. I am sure that NATO wouldn’t accept Armenia even if the latter wanted to. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, doesn’t worry about NATO or Russia. Right now it’s only thinking about its own independence. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are small states. That’s why they have to consider the opinions of greater states. Armenia, being a member of HAPK, is trying to develop relations with NATO as well. We will have to keep going at this rate and see how the relations between Russia and NATO turn out. But the history of the past 1500 years showed that neither NATOs nor HAPKs will ever come to help us. We must have our own army.