The political motives of the criminal case against the former foreign affairs minister and currently PAP MP Vardan Oskanyan are dual layer. And seemingly there is no doubt that those have a political pretext.
It’s just interesting to know what the actual reason is. Here are opinions are divided into two groups. The first comments were that the government has decided to revenge on the PAP after they refused to join the ruling coalition with the RPA. In particular, the NSS launched the case and made a statement about that only a day after the PAP refused to join the coalition – on May 25. This fact created lots of talks in the political field. They assume that the government undertook the pressure against the PAP because of this circumstance. Of course, it is not ruled out that the case against Oskanyan might have been addressed to the PAP to a certain extent but this is not the main goal. Nonetheless, considering the developments in the political field, it seems that right now there is no point to start an RPA-PAP confrontation. It’s true that the PAP didn’t enter the coalition but, according to circulated rumors, during the Sargsyan-Tsarukyan negotiations an agreement was reached about this. Besides, if the government wished to pressure on the PAP they might have not picked Oskanyan as a target. Or Oskanyan would hardly be the first target. They could have done so by reviewing the businesses of Gagik Tsarukyan or other PAP business-owner MPs. For now, the businesses of these people function in the same manner – that is in advantageous conditions. No businessman has quit the PAP like it happened in the case of the LS. Moreover, a close loyalist of Tsarukyan, secretary of the Armenian Olympic Federation Hrachya Rostomyan was appointed Minister of Sports and Youth. It means that the PAP is virtually a coalition member. We may also assume that Rostomyan will mostly work a minister for the Pap rather than Tigran Sargsyan. Reminder: During the recent years Oskanyan has been criticizing the political and economic policies of the government. And he would continue doing so after his membership to the PAP. And with the harshness level, his statements would differ from the ones made by the PAP, which were much milder. The other MPs of the PAP were also saying that the statements of Oskanyan only are his opinion. It means that the former foreign affairs minister was conducting independent policies and he even didn’t consider the standpoint of the party. Moreover, it is not excluded that even the leadership of this party didn’t like and approve of these strict statements of Oskanyan. So it wouldn’t be that accurate to connect this case with the PAP’s political course. During the past months, when the non-political figures of the PAP were being arrested, strict criticism has been heard from the party addressed to the government and these processes were named “ghost hunt.” And in the case of Oskanyan the party still follows the proceeding of the case. The spokesman of the party Tigran Urikhanyan only said that they “sense the smell of persecution.” Yesterday when speaking to him, the latter has said that he’s surprised that in this aspect a criminal case is launched instead of civic or administrative proceedings. And this creates a lot of doubts in him. “When there is illegal action, the response will be strict as in the case of Aramus, when there is no illegal action our response will be adequate,” explained Urikhanyan why the PAP has been so passive in relation to Oskanyan’s litigation. According to an opposite opinion, the actions against Oskanyan and his founded organization Civilitas are addressed personally against him and the former President Robert Kocharyan. As it’s known Oskanyan is considered one of the loyalists of Kocharyan. And his access to the PAP was conditioned by the political weight of Kocharyan over the PAP. This might have not been to the liking of the party leader. Besides that, it’s not yet clear who’s going to run in the 2013 presidential race – Oskanyan or Tsarukyan? It’s clear if Oskanyan is nominated then he has the big support of Kocharyan. Both of the potential candidates remain silent in this regard by keeping the society in an intriguing state. And the incumbent government, in person of Serzh Sargsyan, should clearly insure them from a possible “threat.” Do these proceedings against Oskanyan really have political grounds? Is by doing so the government trying to isolate Oskanyan and Kocahryan from the desire to participate in the presidential elections? For this purpose, they have even started to circulate rumors to deprive Oskanyan from deputy-‘s immunity. Kocharyan’s spokesman Victor Soghomonyan responded to us that on these days Kocharyan is not in Armenia and he hadn’t discussed the brought up matter with him up until now. Urikhanyan also refused to comment on the question whether the launched criminal case is somehow linked to the upcoming presidential elections. He mentioned that his duties include having communication with the society on behalf of the PAP and that the party hasn’t made any statement about the presidential elections. However, the former MP from Heritage Stepan Safaryan thinks that the criminal case launched against Oskanyan and Civilitas is aimed at reining them closer to elections and check their attitude. “I am sure that the case will be closed if Oskanyan states that he’s not going to run and that the PAP is going to endorse Serzh Sargsyan in the upcoming elections, to make the RPA believe that Kocharyan won’t attempt to come back. RPA sees Kocharyan in the back of Oskanyan,” said Safaryan. According to the latter, even if part of the PAP members demand moderations they still won’t be called radical opposition. “Oskanyan’s behavior seems challenging to the government to a certain extent. Perhaps Oskanyan is ready for this attack but the other members of the PAP are not ready for this. So I think that this wing of the PAP cannot be happy about the creation of this situation,” concluded Safaryan.