Let’s believe to linger

10/06/2012 Ara GALOYAN

It is hard to say what is the biggest economic news of the week. The laurel of priority has two nominees – the appointment of the RA Prime Minister and devaluation of the AMD. For the consumer there is also the third one – inflation. Let’s get back to the appointment of Tigran Sargsyan and AMD devaluation. We already have the first expert-level examinations and analyses. The re-appointment of the Premier was no surprise. Therefore there is no need to have any expectation for serious economic reforms and improvements. Premier Tigran Sargsyan reiterated from Brussels that Armenia is moving through evolutional development. He confirmed this and added that he knows that this is a more painful and ling-run process. And then he explained that it is not the desire of the government to give the society a hard time. The reason of that the geopolitical position of the country. The geopolitical processes are the most favorite “excuses” of our society. The devaluation of the AMD was explained by the CB by the foreign processes and not domestic ones. And this has been said in the case when this venerable structure has confessed that it had infested the currency market with immense amount of USD. Besides foreign processes, the devaluation of the AMD also has speculative characters. The 1,5% difference of the sale and purchase of the USD comes to prove this. We have not noticed such a big difference long ago. But this is the preference of our government that prefers “evolutional developments” because this week they have proudly lauded the fulfillment of this year’s budget. It turns out that within the first five months of the year approximately 15 billion AMD more was collected for the state budget than in the previous year. Moreover, seven out of 15 billion was collected during May. But let’s not forget that the law on the budget of this year suggested collection of 100 billion more than in the last year. Currently the average monthly collection of taxes is 3 billion AMD. It is not clear where the rest of the 85 billion will come from. The May index cannot be considered a positive one in light of parliamentary elections. The essential part of our economy goes to importers. This means that the main picture of our economy is formed by simple trade. For sellers the boom period is May and November. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to link all the processes of our economy with the foreign factor. The Premier reiterated this in Brussels as well by saying that foreign remittances have essential importance for our economy. It means if everything goes well in the rest of the world (mostly in Russia) then our country will receive more money and this is good. If everything goes well possible the budget will be fulfilled as well. If the budget is fulfilled there won’t be the need to figure out changes in the budget. In that case we will develop in a painful and long-run way. We would do like the Georgians did in a revolutionary way. In Brussels our Premier told different things to foreign journalists. He told them 500 high-rank state officials will have to declare their property and revenues every year. Moreover, it turns out that these declarations will be open and people can even check those online. As you probably remember, in the past as well the statesmen were also due to submit declarations. But it wasn’t possible to review those anywhere. Prior to 2012 parliamentary elections the Premier himself had to fill out one of those declarations but you can’t find it anywhere – neither online, nor hardcopy. Correct me if I’m wrong. The Premier told the foreign journalists that this year active debates will take place. Of course nobody dares to doubt that these debates will take place. But hardly anyone can claim that these debates will be public. Furthermore, nobody doubts that our super-rich citizens will ever pay the actual taxes. As you know, revolutions are held to bring public good. But our Premier said that we already took the evolution route.