After elections, indeed, the most active topic has become the formation of possible coalitions and alliances.
In this regard, everybody’s attention is focused on the Republican party because after elections this party will once again make a majority in the parliament and the ruling coalition formation depends on this party. Of course, having received majority it can form its own government in the parliament. However, closer to presidential elections 2013 the ruling party and specifically Serzh Sargsyan will most probably like to see a few other parties endorsing him to ensure a smoother and calmer victory for himself. In this regard, the biggest intrigue is the possibility of the coalition between the RPA and PAP. Will Serzh Sargsyan once again build a coalition or will the PAP agree to join it if offered? The PAP was able to provide itself more mandates than it had in the past. Instead of 29 the PAP now has 37 mandates, which makes 35% of the NA MPs. By the way, we have to remember that on the threshold of parliamentary elections 2007 this party used to announce that it had over 400,000 members but as a result of elections it gained only 200,000 votes. This time, the PAP has 450,000 votes. It means that the party was able to overcome this inhibition. This means that now the PAP has the opportunity to play on its own in the political field; it can even refuse to join the coalition or even nominate its own candidate for president in 2013. At this moment it’s clear that almost all the political parties in parliament don’t exclude the possibility of coalition, except for the ANC. Yesterday during the Q&A with journalists the RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan stated that the issue of forming a coalition is at the stage of discussion. It means that the RPA is discussing who to offer to join the coalition. By the way, during the past two days President Sargsyan was in NKR, where he participates in the celebration of the 20th anniversary of liberation of Shushi and the military parade in Stepanakert. Former President Robert Kocharyan was also in NKR and according to certain assumptions Sargsyan was supposed to meet Kocharyan to discuss the next political developments. According to certain observers, the prospects of the new coalition depend on Sargsyan-Kocharyan negotiations. T. Sargsyan yesterday didn’t break down what parties they’re considering to offer to join the ruling coalition. Is the PAP among these parties to be considered? He only said that in a few days from now everything will be clear. Perhaps the Prime Minister referred to the results of negotiations with Kocharyan. Instead, the NA chairman Samvel Nikoyan brought up a minor correction by saying that the next coalition is going to be based on ideologies. According to him, if several parties agree to cooperate with each other they should have similar ideological grounds and features. When asked whether the RPA considers the PAP an ideological partner considering that during the pre-election period certain PAP leaders criticized the government, Nikoyan didn’t wish to answer it. In his further speech Nikoyan added that the opposition should be ideological and powerful because it is always good for the parliament to have powerful and clever opposition in the parliament. It’s hard to tell which party or parties Nikoyan referred to by saying “powerful opposition.” Does he mean the ANC, which ended up with only 7 seats in the parliament or the PAP with 37 MPs and powerful financial resources? On the other hand, how different are the ideas of the RPA from the PAP. The latter has been part of the coalition for 5 years now. And if the PAP joins the coalition Nikoyan will find ideological resemblance immediately. Is the Heritage party considered an ideological partner of the RPA and will the ruling party join a coalition with that? “For this reason we should follow the ideologies of the parties, their political course. You could have easily studied this yourselves without having the need to ask from me,” once again Nikoyan avoided the answer. The answer, however, didn’t contain any retraction though. The possibility of the coalition of the RPA with the Heritage is being discussed in various circles, including media. Moreover, the deputy-chair of the party Rubik Hakobyan at least openly didn’t deny this possibility. “I don’t want to express my personal opinion, all the formats are being discussed within the party,” he told Radio Liberty. And if they are discussing the matter it means they have received such an offer. By the way, in the political backstage the possibility of coalition among the Legal State, RPA and Heritage is being discussed in a different format. These three parties have become members of the European People’s Party, which has the largest faction in the European Parliament. According to one of the versions of the new coalition, the unity of these three parties can be explained as a coalition of the three parties that are members of the European People’s Party, which, according to some people, can be considered a positive thing in the eyes of the Europeans. By the way, it is not excluded that by saying ideological coalition, Nikoyan meant exactly this coalition. Let us remember that the PAP has also applied to the EPP to become a member but their application was turned down. However, there is a possibility that the coalition between the RPA. Legal State and the Heritage may not take place because several months later Armenia will step in the presidential elections and the members of the coalition parties will hardly nominate their candidates separately. It is known that the Heritage chair Raffi Hovhannisian has the intention to run for President regardless of the chance of victory. This idea is also being encouraged by the government because having a competitor such as Hovhannisian is favorable for Sargsyan too. He can run, create an imitation of competition, lose and congratulate Sargsyan. At any rate, the government has been outlining such a prospect. If this scenario works, then it will be of benefit to the government to keep the Heritage as opposition. With the same logic if the PAP joins the coalition with the RPA it will have to endorse Sargsyan during the presidential race as mentioned in the coalition memorandum of the last year. However, so far, only negative opinions are heard from the PAP. The PAP MP elected by the party list Vardan Oskanyan is against the coalition with the RPA. Another PAP MP Vahe Hovhannisyan also doesn’t see the meaning of being in the coalition with the RPA. “They have received the majority of votes and let them have the responsibility of government on their own. This is my personal opinion,” yesterday said Naira Zohrabyan. Of course, PAP’s intention to join or refuse to join the coalition depends neither on the wish of Zohrabyan and Oskanyan, nor Tigran Sargsyan and Samvel Nikoyan. They are probably making such statements to raise the values of their parties. The final decision will be made by Serzh Sargsyan and Gagik Tsarukyan, indeed with Kocharyan’s participation. Will Sargsyan and Kocharyan reach such an agreement in Karabakh? Will Kocharyan refuse to run for president in 2013?