The national statistics service has published the report on macroeconomic situation for January. This is the draft report but still gives general understanding about the macroeconomic situation of Armenia.
From the economic point of view January is very passive. Half of the country is in vacation during that month. Even the official statistics shows that the economic activity in January was very passive. For example, the construction capacity was at least ten times less compared to December. The capacity of trade and agriculture sector transactions were three times less compared to December. Even though the statistics shows slowdown, the economy is starting to become more active than in the same period of the previous year. The economic activity rate was 4.4% in January. This is a good indicator and certainly it will be included in all official texts and announcements to praise the government’s policy. Another reason for optimistic speeches is the industry sector development. According to the official statistics, the capacity of products of this sector has grown by 21% in January compared with 2011 and reached 71.5 billion drams. In fact the industry was the only sector that fostered the economic growth, the other sectors, besides the service sector, have not developed. The GDP growth of the agriculture sector was 0.1%, the construction sector – 0.5%, and the service sector – 6.7%.
In January 2011 the first sector with rapid development was the sector of services with 24.7 growth, due to which the economic activity indicator reached 7.7%.
If the industry sector has developed, it would be logical to say that the energy production sector should have developed too. According to the official statistics, the capacity of electricity produced in Armenia in January 2012 was more by 17% than in the same month of the previous year.
According to the official statistics, the average salary has grown by 7.4% to the previous year and reached the level of 113.052 drams. In the state sector the growth of salaries was 9.9%, and in the private business sector – 4.8%.
The optimistic information is limited with the above-mentioned in the report, and the other indicators are not so optimistic. It concerns the salaries as well because if we look at the official information, we will see that during one month, in December-January, the salaries have reduced by 23%. It is difficult to assume why. Even if we take into account the fact that overall during the year salaries have grown, the factor of inflation is balancing that growth. The statisticians report that the inflation (consumer prices index) was 4.8% compared to January. However, everyone understands that this is a normative indicator and during the entire year the inflation rate was around 7-8%. This means that the living conditions in Armenia have not improved during this year.
Now let’s see what has happened to the trade indices. The statistics is reporting around 106 billion drams inner circulation. This indicator has grown only by 0.1% compared to the same month of the previous year. It is a very small change.
The information concerning export is impressive. The export capacity has grown by 27% compared to last year, and the import – by 10%. However, the year has started slowly and the import in January was more by 6.6% compared to the same month in 2011. As for the export, in January it grew by only 0.4%. Last year in the same month the export capacity had grown by 21.3%, and the import had reduced by 1.7%.
Of course, these indices will be discussed for some time. In consideration of the fact that elections are coming soon, the government will use the positive part of the report for campaigning purposes. However, there is no reason t be happy about the statistics report because it also indicates pessimistic indices concerning emigration, inflation and poverty. However, the monthly or quarterly information does not mean much, even more, if it concerns January. Neither should we be happy about the positive information, nor should we be sad about the pessimistic information.