The PA’s action in the parliament, as a result of which the bill on cash transactions proposed by the government was failed, showed that a new phase of pre-election campaign was starting. It is a fact that this was the strongest hit to the RPA during the time on power and they will not forgive this. However, as politics is strongly individualized in the country, it will be very interesting to see the reaction of the leaders of the two parties. Usually Serzh Sargsyan has a habit to wait a little bit before doing something, but the situation is turning to a new quality competition, which will be done more openly. If Serzh Sargsyan does not ignore and take this, it may become the beginning of a large political change.
What is this long-expected change?
First, it is a fact that the bill proposed by the government was not urged for this phase and it has political purposes. Usually political powers come up with more social and populist initiatives. This bill proposed by the government would first of all hit the pockets of those making larger transactions because for any transactions exceeding 10k dollars people would have to undergo extra bank proceedings and registration processes. Couldn’t they prolong the adoption of this bill for several months?
The issue cannot be explained with narrow thinking as it was done by the PA. There are higher political issues in it. In the beginning of the power of the incumbent authorities there were experts who said that the main opponent for this power would become the PA. However, the poor policy of the government supported this opinion come true. The policy of looking for culprits among themselves, suspecting each other, etc., of course would destroy their cooperation. Of course, because of the danger the authorities have temporarily stopped the process “of killing the old” among themselves, but the team members don’t know that during upcoming changes the people, who used to do their best to bring these people to power, will be “eaten by a revolution”. If the processes go on well, first of all the successful young people, who have been able to be promoted on their own and due to their talents will be ostracized because the system cannot tolerate and is jealous with such people. It is neither clear now whether the new team will entrust the role of the pre-election campaign coordinator to the prime-minister, or the former head of the parliament who is known with nicknames. If the authorities may forgive the poor policy of collapsing and stagnating the economy during the past four years, they will not forgive any failures with the elections because it will hit their body directly.
Of course the PA had to be the first power to use this opportunity in order not to let any other powers take the initiative. If they are not forgiven, the possibility that the PA and the ANC may unite will multiply the risks for the authorities. In such conditions the people and groups, which do not want to take on much responsibility, will petition the president to take stronger measures. However, it does not seem so realistic at this moment and the maximum that may be done is to replace the ministers from the PA. Behind this, the possibility of creation of a “tiny 37th year” will include more dangers.
What is the solution?
Certainly the authorities believe that they will win the elections due to their administrative resources. This is the beginning of the biggest lie such as fair elections, Dilijan as a financial center of Armenia, Armenia as a center of nanotechnology, using the world crisis for the purposes of benefiting from it and developing Armenia, etc. As a result of this policy during the past years people have started accepting things in the vice versa rather the authorities say. The reproduction of the government will be much more difficult now than in 2008 because the republican party cannot be manipulated so easily now than before.
Another version of political developments can be a situation when the PA has majority and elects their own prime-minister. This is in the interests of more groups, including the society that does not want instability and Serzh Sargsyan, who wants to protect his positions. Of course in such situation there will be some losses, including limitation of the powers of the president, which will be in force with constitutional power from next year, as well as the issue of the 18, i.e. inheriting the power.
The third possible version is revolution, which is a simple process and more dangerous, but a different topic of discussion.
Angela Martirosyan