The closer we get to elections the more active the intergovernmental intrigues become. And the main intrigue of the government is the conflict between the two ruling coalition parties – the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties, which originated from the famous statement of the leader of Gagik Tsarukyan about their intention of having “50+1” votes. And it’s not excluded that this conflict will continue till the elections.
During this period Gagik Tsarukyan with the pressure of the RPA leader Serzh Sargsyan has several times openly and publicly expressed his intention about his loyalty to the RPA and the President. But it’s evident that all that is not enough and Sargsyan needs that the Prosperous Armenia proves this in a more convincing manner. Moreover, the RPA is ready to let the PA have some use from the governmental resources both formally and informally if the PA stays loyal to the coalition. But the fact that the PA is not a fully independent structure the governmental circles still don’t have a full confidence in the loyalty of this party. And this is exactly the reason that in parallel with the themes of intergovernmental intrigues they periodically circulate the intention of participating in elections with a joint list. There are even publications that the joint RPA and PA list is being reviewed. Yesterday however both the RPA and PA denied these rumors and claimed that those are just gossips spread by mass media. Indeed, there are talks about running the race with a joint list, at least none of the two parties openly refuses this idea. And this is taking place not only within the media but also during the negotiations of the leadership of the two parties. However, all that hasn’t reached its culmination yet. They say that Tsarukyan still doesn’t consent with this idea and is considering participating in elections on his own. However, according to certain information Serzh Sargsyan hasn’t made a final decision about the joint participation of the RPA and PA in the upcoming elections because this version will not only have perks but will also imply dangerous traits. The privilege is that by joint participation Sargsyan will have a full control of the situation. Besides that he will have the opportunity to include a few more favorable people on the list at the expense of the PA members. And by running on its own the PA will have a great opportunity to have independence, which may be not very favorable for the RPA closer to the presidential elections. At any rate the government periodically puts pressure on the PA, then they loosen this pressure. The last expression of that pressure was the recent arrests of several PA members, who were charged with the use of drugs. A few days ago one of them was released. Let us remember that two days ago the staffer of Masis municipality, member of the PA Artur Ghazaryan was released. The situation is that none of these parties can state about their decision to either run jointly or separately because none of them is oriented yet. Yesterday the RPA deputy-chairman Galust Sahakyan stated that the coalition parties are collaborating and will keep doing so even closer to the parliamentary elections. “I don’t rule out the possibility of the three governing parties fielding a joint list of candidates,” he said. Vardan Bostanjyan from the Prosperous Armenia also didn’t rule out the possibility of collaboration with the RPA. “If the interests of the country require that we so then all the political parties should abide with these requirements. Based on such an imperative I can see the possibility of such collaboration,” stated Bostanjyan. The negative scenario of joint participation in elections for the RPA would be the fact that although the coalition parties will unite but will be one governmental force and pole in the eyes of the opposition. The RPA is mostly worried about the participation of the ANC. And the ruling parties are still pondering and fluctuating in their decisions. If they leave the PA has a semi-opposition party they might be able to share the votes of the decided and swing voters. The RPA thinks that in the opposite case these votes will be given to the ANC and if the latter succeeds to gain more votes than what the RPA anticipated then it will became a real headache for the government. If the ANC brings to parliament the leaders of the parties or the active politicians, who are quite experienced, they might impede the plans of the government. This is currently attempted to be done by the Heritage and ARF but occasionally. Sometimes they get the support of the PA, whenever it gets resented from the RPA. We have witnessed a similar situation recently when the ruling party adopted the state budget by hardly being able to collect 66 supporting votes. It has almost failed though. The majority of the PA MPs were not present during the voting. Those RPA MPs, who have already realized that the next parliament is going to be closed for them, also didn’t come to parliament. By doing that they expressed their discontent to the government. In the past as well, it was possible to fail a few bills due to the PA. They simply didn’t participate in the voting. After the upcoming elections, when the ANC hardliners come to the parliament, RPA will recede with its current team. And if we add the famous members of the Heritage, Free Democrats, who are also very experienced, then the ruling party has tough days ahead. In the upcoming elections the ruling faction is also concerned about the possible entrance of the Free Democrats and Heritage in the parliament. And in these conditions, according to the discussions within the government Sargsyan will pick the option, which will enable to have maximum control over the PA. For now it’s still not clear whether this will happen with separate or joint participation in elections. The government is thinking to bring such MPs, who will be able to provide more quality to the parliament in order to withstand the opposition, which will be more influential this time. It’s no vain that there are rumors that this time the RPA is going to bring to parliament not only button pushers but also the “hardliners,” such as Khosrov Harutyunyan, Vazgen Manukyan and some others, who will most probably appear on the RPA list.