Starting from yesterday Armenia launched an official state census, which will continue till October 21. 2,5 billion AMD will be spent on it. 56% of that amount was allotted by the government. The rest was provided by international structures and other counties.
Approximately 12 thousand associates will be visiting homes with questionnaires consisted of 33 questions. Many of the questions may sound ridiculous. But they said it’s needed and necessary. But do we really need a census? One of my colleagues accurately mentioned that to a certain extent we may claim that there is no need for census (or its need is exaggerated) because the state institutes have data about each citizens and these data are being periodically updated. For example, the state citizen registration bureau keeps the record of marriages, birth and deaths. The tax body has information about the people’s incomes and paid taxes. There is certain portion of truth to this but we need the census regardless of that. Perhaps the comparison doesn’t look that good but let us compare our country with a large warehouse. The overseer initially knows how much product there is, how much was moved and brought back in. It means if we have data of taxes, incomes and number of goods the overseer will be able to concretely tell you how much stuff there is in the warehouse at the given moment. This is nothing difficult. However, despite that, from time to time they conduct inventory of products because during the process the overseer might have made some mistakes (deliberately or unconsciously). So there is no harm of conducting inventory. Information is the most important thing. Even the Greeks and Egyptians millenniums ago realized the importance of census for the management purposes of the population. It means that it is impossible to conduct an efficient social-economic policy without knowing the actual number of the population. With the same logic, private companies spent great amount of money to examine the market, to understand the preferences of the potential customers. Of course, unlike the private companies the state spends the money of the respondents and several international organizations.
On the other hand, it is a big question whether the population census will reflect the real situation. The problem is that there is a total mistrust in the society toward the authorities. It always has an impact on population census because the census is based on the opinions of people. This factor and the shadow in the society will significantly change the picture. Especially the information concerning sources of incomes will be wrong. Yesterday the statistics services disseminated a press release concerning the critics over the population census. Specifically, they mentioned that the questionnaire does not require to write the amount of income. The 20th question, which is about sources of incomes, gives options such as hired or other type of work and does not require writing the amount of total income. Such question would not be even logical because, for example, a young man that works a shop of construction materials earns about 100-150,000 drams a month but his registered income with the shop is 30,000. Those who are not employed but sometimes work on side will not declare their income either, because if they say that sometimes they work on side and make money, they will lose their pension or aids. Everyone hides certain information due to different reasons. The income part is the most important thing to imagine the picture of the social situation in the society. This week is going to be a theatre play because everyone will say that they can hardly survive and for example a state official that lives in a luxury private house will say that he lives only with the salary he receives from the government.
The answer to the biggest question the population census expects to find is the number of people in the country. The authorities will have this information after the census but it is hard to say what kind of numbers they will tell the society. Anyway, it is hard to believe that they may announce a smaller number than the 3,2 million they have announced so far. We have that experience already. The incumbent and previous governments often say that the emigration waves started in early 90s. According to different sources, the number of people that left the country is about 500,000-1,000,000. In the second part of 1990there was no significant growth of birth rate. According to the population census in 2001, the number of the population permanently living in Armenia was 3,2 million. According to the official statistics, this number has not almost changed. Different international organizations say different numbers about the population in Armenia. For example, the website of the UN writes that in 2008 the population in Armenia was 3,077,000. The World Bank writes that in 2010 Armenia’s population was 3,090,000. However, according to the report of Armenia’s official statistics service, the population in Armenia in 2010 was 3,213,000. There can be two options: either the international organizations do not believe Armenia’s official statistics and have their own sources, or the statistics service trust the international organizations and have told them the real numbers. Anyway, the authorities do not have much place to manoeuvre in the issue of the population census because this process is closely connected with elections. To note, one month ago we published information, according to which recently the special services have done an expert’s census and found out that the real number of the population in the country is 1.4-1.6 million. It is also hard to believe that they will tell the real numbers of unemployment and poverty either, especially due to the fact that elections are coming.
By the way, can population census be “useful” before the elections too. The population census will show how many people are not in Armenia but can be shown as they are on the paper. It will also help to write the names of people in voter lists who have passed away. In other words, the population census is a great opportunity to draw new numbers and revive those who have passed away and report that those who are note in Armenia have voted for the government. Besides that, it will become a good tool to get rid of undesirable people. Undesirable information such as unemployment, poverty and emigration will be introduced to the society in a different context, but still the government will possess the true information, which can be put on the table of the people that are responsible for different sectors in case of necessity.