Interview with the director of the Armenian Center of National and International Studies Manvel Sargsyan
– Why did the authorities of Armenia unexpectedly decide to make reforms? They are even making announcements and steps for that purpose.
– I think that Armenia was influenced by the environment that was established in the world following the Arabic world revolutions. The problem did not concern so much the revolutions as the new styles of messages and announcements on part of the super-states. They started speaking differently about authoritarian regimes and human rights. What happened in Libya was really exclusive because the coalition interfered in the inner war of a country for the purpose of human rights issues. This had a significant influence on all countries, including Armenia. Our country is still living under the impressions of the events of March 1, which direct many processes in the political sector, but still the quality of the government does not change. We have an established oligarchic system with their interests and views about everything. The authorities have decided to make the game more difficult by transforming from direct and repressive actions to more difficult ones. And now they say that the opposition was different yesterday and now they can cooperate.
– Does this mean that anything has changed in the approaches of the opposition?
– I don’t see any significant change in the policy of the opposition because since the establishment of the ANC they have announced that the opposition is ready to dialogue with the government with the condition that the political prisoners must be released. Nothing has changed since then. When the society reacted strongly to it, they announced that they were going to dialogue only with the demand for extraordinary elections. It means that I don’t see any significant change in the activities of the opposition. The ANC leaders say that this was the initiative of the government and the government is moving toward a silk revolution.
– Why do the authorities do that?
– The social situation is very difficult and they have not been able to do anything else. Of course this may result in a dangerous situation. They have decided to make the game more complicated as a result of external factors, and they are doing well. And it turned out that they did not have to fulfill all 15 demands of the ANC and only three of them would be enough too.
– But the ANC announces that they will agree for dialogue after the political prisoners are released only by raising a demand of changing the ruling regime. Otherwise they will be activated and will organize demonstrations again.
– Some experts are true to say that the fulfillment of those three demands is a result of the political situation but not actions corresponding to the needs and demands of the society. The society wants the culprits to be punished. The congress has taken out its demands and left only three of them. For the authorities it was not so difficult to do those three demands. The political circles do not believe that there may be extraordinary elections. If the authorities do not agree to negotiate on that issue, what will be the topic of their negotiation? They will release the guys and will say that they do not negotiate. The idea of a revolution is not realistic and the authorities understand that too. Even though there is no revolution in Armenia’s agenda now, they are pointing out on specific sectors for cooperation such as the justice system, corruption, etc. It is very difficult to understand the situation. In all countries where there were authoritarian regimes and have left, there has not been cooperation. In those countries the authorities of Chili, Poland, South Africa were declared criminal and the main demand of their movements was the resignation of the governments in peace conditions. After that they developed the formed civic demand as an ultimatum. And their people obligated the ultimatums to their leaders in peace conditions. The ANC relates to the word “ultimatum” carefully. But the logics of struggles in other countries show that only ultimatum can work effectively because only ultimatum based on the provisions of the Constitution can work effectively against illegal authorities.
– Do you think that after the political prisoners are released the ANC will develop such ultimatum as well?
– Many people say that the ANC leaders have reserved places in the parliament. The reason is the fact that extraordinary elections are not accepted as a result of struggling. They say it is a compromise negotiation. What is that? It is a topic for complaining. What does it mean to make compromise with criminal authorities? Is this is struggle or they raise issues and cut deals? These are different things. Does the struggle lead to results or you don’t insist on your point because of external threats?
– Why do you think there is external threat?
– I have always thought that the factor of external threats have been used by all authorities, including the opposition. But the new history and the events of March 1 have shown that there is no direct connection between external security and domestic issues. The external factor is used only when you do not try to convince the society with other factors.
– Anyway it doesn’t matter if people are disappointed about Congress; they still rely on that political power. They do not rely on other powers out of the government.
– Of course it’s like that because they have not changed the demand for change of power. But if they change this demand and say that the extraordinary election will not take place and they are preparing for ordinary elections voters will look to the direction of others. In such situation political powers may resign from the ANC. The potential of any political power is in the society. What will be the potential of the ANC if people do not attend their rallies? New powers resign or become stronger only when the political agenda changes. Only the one political power can stay on the scene and even become stronger which may approve to people that they are able to develop democracy and make the incumbent government leave. But the ANC has not done it yet.
– What did the former president Robert Kocharyan want to say in his interview?
– In his interview he openly shows that some deals or rapprochement processes are in process on his account. And as a result of that he will become a target. He said that he had not done anything alone and all what he had done had been agreed by everyone and corresponded to the Constitution. And what is the most important, he said that the criminal case that is in the prosecutor’s office now does not concern the authorities but mass disorders. He simply proposed to the government to go and take care of that issue themselves. I have never believed that the authorities really want to discover the events of March 1. I simply do not understand why the ANC agreed with Serzh Sargsyan’s announcement so easily.