– Davit, currently it is quite vague to understand who’s government and especially who’s the real opposition. There are several parties, which compete to become the true opposition in Armenia – ANC, Heritage, ARF and now even the People’s Party and National unity.
– I think that the situation is quite simple. We have a non-parliamentary opposition, which is led by the first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. There is a parliamentary opposition, the Heritage, which I would also consider opposition – often softer but regarding certain issues quite radical as well. For example, they have submitted to the NA their draft of recognizing the NKR. It wasn’t quite understandable. According to the Constitution the recognition of states is the power of the president and not the parliament. Dashnaktsutyun calls itself opposition but it’s not quite so. No matter what they say they only have one controversy with president Serzh Sargsyan and that is the Armenian-Turkish relationship. That’s all. As of the rest of the issues their attitude doesn’t much differ from the governmental party. They may oppose, vote against but still they still need to prove that they are opposition. I personally do not consider the ARF as parliamentary opposition.
– So you don’t consider Tigran Sargsyan and Artashes Geghamyan with their parties as non-parliamentary opposition.
– I will come back to Artashes Geghamyan but now I’d like to speak about Tigran Karapetyan, whose last rally hosted 10.000 people. In his speeches Karapetich doesn’t take the role of the opposition. He says I’m neither opposition nor government.
– Why? He addresses quite rough remarks and names to the government.
– He says that he fights for the sake of justice but he doesn’t mention how they can reach this so-called justice. I think Tigran Karapetich is using the impoverished and impoverishing stratum.
– Do you agree with the opinion that he is a mine for the opposition?
– During the last 10 years there were so many mines like that. So this is a quite common practice. Back in the day the same role was submitted by Artashes Geghamyan.
– The brightest and the most classical example of a mine if the Legal State.
– Yes. I use a different term for that though. My term is spoiler. That is the person, who is appointed during elections, to take away ballots from the main opposition. In the Soviet Union this practice was first applied by Russia during the elections of 1996 when Alexander Lebed took away the votes of Zyuganov. Then he joined Yeltsin and then quit the game. During the last presidential elections there were nine candidates. The main governmental candidate was Serzh Sargsyan and the opposition candidate was Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The rest were spoilers of different calibers.
– The Prosperous Armenia also has oppositional ambitions, which didn’t for in favor of a number of RPA bills. This party also makes passionate speeches addressed mainly to some government members.
– The role of the Prosperous Armenia inside the government very much resembles the role of the ARF in various coalitions. They make lofty speeches in the parliament, address criticism but when it comes to the decisive moment they vote the way the ruling party does. The Prosperous Armenia is a frond. So it is no opposition but only a criticizer of certain policies of the government, which always stays with the government and always comes to an agreement.
– Do you think the Prosperous Armenia will nominate his candidate or will endorse Serzh Sargsyan? In this case, what is this conspiracy for?
– I think that it’s too soon to speak about the presidential elections. There is over two years time. And conspiracy is needed to have the opportunity of maneuvering. Perhaps, they think that there are other candidates, who they can endorse. And why should be exclude Robert Kocharyan?
– Do you find the return of Robert Kocharyan to active politics possible?
– Being in politics not only requires public and visible activities.
– Yes, however, it should be done without governmental levers. Otherwise it won’t be possible.
– One thing I know for sure. Back in the day, the Prosperous Armenia was the project of Robert Kocharyan. So it is his son. I don’t think it will be deserted.
– Or vice versa. It turns out that the assumption of Hmayak Hovhannisyan, according to which in spring the president may dissolve the parliament, isn’t quite possible.
– I think this scenario is only one of the possible ones. There are other more probable scenarios. And according to that scenario there won’t be extraordinary elections. Let us vigilantly evaluate the situation. Does Serzh Sargsyan have political issues connected with the NA? The party led by him possesses 63 seats in the parliament. So even if he doesn’t find allies his victory is still quite possible. Besides that he has an ally in the parliament – the Legal State (with its 8 mandates), which by 100% is controlled by him. We can add to this the Prosperous Armenia with its 26 members. It is also an ally, maybe not a very reliable one but still an ally. I don’t think this party will abandon Sargsyan at focal moments. A possible ally is the ARF, which only truly opposes Sargsyan when it comes to the Armenian-Turkish relations. Besides that, we should also notice that certain members of the ARF have very close ties, even are close relatives with Sargsyan. There are 10-11 MPs, who haven’t joined any serious functions but most of them are also loyal to Sargsyan. So now tell me to what extent the dissolution of the parliament is possible. Dissolving this parliament would mean to hold new elections. Indeed, in the country instability will be created; international observers will arrive, NGOs, etc.
– What is your opinion about the possible conflict within the RPA, which is sometimes done covertly?
– Hovik Abrahamyan is a weighty politician; has certain levers, big connections but it doesn’t mean that he is going to be the Speaker of Parliament all his life or should always be a member of the political board of the RPA. I don’t exclude that during this period some people will deflect and leave the ship. The ones, who have personal animosity with Sargsyan, will leave.
– Who has more to lose?
– Yes. And these people will leave the ship or they will be made to leave the ship but it doesn’t mean that they cannot join other forces. It is hardly possible that they will join the opposition. After March 1 they won’t be able to join the actual opposition. But why not they can easily join other governmental parties?
– Especially when this incentive already exists. Free forces, such as the Progressive Party, the Youth Party and come allies of Samvel Babayan join the Prosperous Armenia.
– The Prosperous Armenia is a political project but not a real party in the classical sense. There is a leader, who finances a structure and the members of this structure are standing next to their leader. The party is established to react to concrete matters and issues. But this party doesn’t have a serious economic and political mission and in this regard it recedes to the ARF, which is our traditional party. We should be sincere to confess that we don’t even know what kind of party it is.
– Perhaps you are surprised by recently sociologist Aharon Adibekyan submitted a sociological analysis. In the first place was Serzh Sargsyan. Gagik Tsarukyan occupied the second place and the third was rated Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
– Let me be short by saying that I don’t believe in the analysis of Adibekyan.
– Recently the new Mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan made a decision to “clean” the streets of Yerevan from traders. Numerous people were deprived from daily bread. The price of natural gas, flour and apparently everything else is rising. So you think all this may cause the public complaint and protest of the people? And I mean a naturally created protest without the interference of external forces.
– I think there is such a possibility. And this becomes more possible because the government and the city council apply inadequate means to reach their goals. How can you not allow this people do their trading? This person needs to take care of the family. Why should he be hungry? Or have you opened new factories and companies for them to work? But I think the new trials of the new mayor are still ahead to come. Yes, he is a sharp manager but the city is a specific organism. In this regard, the former mayor had a better understanding and sense for the city. There may be certain uprising but without political demands the government may easily localize those. I think that this kind of insurgence in the sense of change of government is not a big threat. But let’s not forget that there are problems, which are disguised and not solved. And the number of discontent people is increasing and not always this uprising may be without political slogans.
– We have spoken about the internal political situation in the country. There is only one conclusion. For now the government is able to control the political field. And the European missioners also allow them to act that way. Recently the PACE commissioner Thomas Hammarberg mentioned in Armenia that despite the fact that there are still imprisoned people in the aftermath of March 1 events the Council of Europe, however, won’t apply any sanctions against Armenia.
– The practice shows that the west takes rough steps when the political administration is not able to control of the political situation. Let us remember the last presidential elections of Belarus, where according to me Lukashenko had a 10:0 victory. The society doesn’t doubt his legitimacy. Same can be said about Ilham Aliyev. Legitimacy and democracy are different things. The leader may be legitimate but not democratic and vice versa is true as well. Boris Nemtsov was arrested for 15 days and in the US Congress they announced that he was a prisoner of conscience. But in Armenia we have people, who have been in jail for years but Europe still decides whether they should condemn that or not. And as you have noticed the volume of the western criticism has decreased because they keep telling us make reforms.
– In your opinion, which of the political forces will appear in the parliament after the elections 2012?
– There are different scenarios. I don’t exclude that the opposition may boycott the elections if everything goes in the same scenario.
– Do you think there will be another scenario?
– If the external forces agree with the conduct of elections in the same manner I don’t exclude boycott and first of all the boycott will be from the people. Let us remember the 2005 constitutional referendum. There were official data and actual numbers.
– But the legal force given to the number, which was drawn. After the visit of Hammarberg the opposition has vague hopes that after the report the prisoners will ultimately be released.
– In his speech Hammarberg didn’t mention they demand the release of the prisoners. He said that they are in jail because of an incorrect political decision. But it’s important what e will write in his report. I don’t doubt that his report is going to be harsh. Up until recently the international organizations were not considering Pashinyan a journalist deprived of freedom. It was understandable. In 2008 he was the member of Ter-Petrosyan’s headquarters, a political actor and was persecuted as such. But then he got lost and was working as a journalist. When he returned and was jailed he was still writing articles. Now he is being persecuted as a journalist as well. I am surprised that our ministry of justice practices such a rough policy in relation to Pashinyan. Finally Pashinyan, Sasoun Mikaelyan and the rest will one day be released. But there is one tricky thing here. Before going to prison he had a different political weight than what he will have after he’s released from jail. And the longer he stays in jail the bigger the weight grows. And let the people, who keep him in prison, be considered about that.