A partial vote count has given the "Twitter Revolution" a fighting chance as reformist parties in Moldova secured a narrow lead over the strong Communist opposition in early elections yesterday, although there are concerns that a snap election might fail to resolve the political stalemate over the election of a new president.
Twitter Revolution Parties Win
Contrary to expectations of a low voter turnout yesterday, some 55% of 2.6 million eligible Moldovan voters took part in an extra-term parliamentary election. According to the Moldovan Central Elections Committee, the Communist Party is by far the strongest party, leading with 41.2%, which gives this opposition party 44 out of 101 parliamentary mandates. Prime Minister Vlad Filat’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the second runner, with 28.1% of votes or 34 seats, followed by the Democratic Party (DP) with 13.3% (16 seats) and Moldova’s acting president Mikhai Ghimpu’s Liberal Party 8.6% (11 seats). The final outcome is expected to be announced by the end of 29 November after the counting of 600,000 crucial votes from 75 ballot stations opened abroad. Although the vote gives the Communist Party a relative majority, it also secured a combined absolute majority for LDP, LP, and DP, all members of a four- partite ruling coalition of Alliance for European Integration (AEI). Since the fourth member of the AEI, Party of Alliance Our Moldova, failed to cross the 4% entry threshold, AEI lost a member but not really the votes. Compared to the last parliament where the AEI held 53 seats, the latest vote results show an increase in seats, largely due to the LDP strengthening its position by gaining more votes than in the last election. Following the early results the pro-EU parties have already started coalition formation talks.
The 28 November vote is the third parliamentary election in Moldova since April 2009 called earlier by the country’s Constitutional Court. It comes on the back of an April 2009 parliamentary poll that caused mass protests as Moldovan voters disputed the Communists’ victory. The violent protests led to a 29 June snap election and the creation of a parliament that failed to elect a president. Moldovans were forced to vote again to resolve the political stand-off between the ruling AEI and a sizeable Communist opposition over the election of the president. The Communists have been bitter about their ousting from power by a popular uprising in the summer of 2009, dubbed the "Twitter Revolution" for the wide use of internet sites to organise protests against the then Communist government. Largely pro-Russian, the Communists used their 48 seats in the last parliament to block the election of a pro-Western president. The AEI’s efforts to win over the Communists and stage votes in the parliament to elect a president or try to change the constitution and establish a nationwide vote for the president’s election failed and triggered the unavoidable vote.
The international observers from the European elections watchdog the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and a number of other institutions and governments have yet to make their statements on the quality of the vote, although the CIS mission has already praised it as fair and transparent. The voting took place without any violence despite heightened political tensions.
Every Vote Counts
Moldovans hope that the new legislature will have a different make-up, allowing the election of a Moldovan president with 68 necessary votes. The question is whether there will be 68 votes in the new parliament to agree on the same presidential candidate. The race is very close and all eyes are on the ballot boxes from aboard. Unlike the previous election, nearly 1 million mainly young Moldovans residing abroad were not allowed to take part in the election; however, the reformist coalition has made sure that their voting rights are not infringed during the 28 November election. Seventy-five voting stations have been opened, mainly in Italy, Russia, and the United States, as well as Spain and Portugal. This move will certainly benefit reformist parties that want to encourage close integration with the EU and the expansion of close economic ties with the West, a policy that resonates well with the emigrant Moldovan voters, whose remittances make up at least 30% of the national income. At least 600,000 votes are still to be counted, which may give the reformists further seats towards the coveted 68 qualitative majority votes to ensure the election of a pro-EU president.
Outlook and Implications
The race is very close and the risk of the losing party disputing the results through street protests is rather high. Although the Communists are clear leaders amongst the other parties, it is unlikely that they will be able to form a coalition government. However, the prospect of Filat’s LDP joining with the Communists should not be discounted. A lot depends on the final vote as well as the coalition formation talks amongst the reformist parties. Although the early results give the Communists a relative lead, compared to the June 2009 vote, it is the LDP that has improved its position in parliament, as opposed to the Communists, who lost four seats, from 48 to 44. Filat is likely to try to capitalise on his party’s success and push for a greater role for the LDP in the new coalition. Ghimpu’s LP is likely to be the most difficult negotiator. Nationalist Ghimpu is likely to push for his own candidacy for presidency; however, given his divisive anti-Russian politics, as well as strained relations with other coalition member parties, this may be a difficult bid to push through.
The task of forming a working and effective coalition rests now with the pragmatic Filat, whose policies, despite unpopular austerity measures, seem to have support amongst the voters. He and many Moldovan politicians realise that Moldova cannot afford to continue the political stalemate that is stifling the country’s economic, social, and political development. However, the coming days will demonstrate whether Filat is ready to become a junior coalition member with the Communists for the sake of ending the stalemate or whether he will be able to have his own pro-EU coalition and strike a compromise with the, thus far, uncompromising Communists.
Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
Global Insight, IHS