Several days ago the Turkish National Security Council approved significant changes in a document which contains threats against Turkey claiming that Israel is now a major threat to the country, Turkish media reported. At the same time the Council decided to remove Syria, Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia from the list of countries that pose a threat to Turkey. Iran, which was previously a major threat to Ankara was also removed from the list of countries. But Turkey thought that it’s kind of soon to consider Russia their friend and ally. And thus Russia was included in the list of neutral states. For the first time since 1949 in the red list of Ankara Israel was included, which wasn’t unexpected by considering the events of the recent years. The next revision of the list will take place in 5 years. During an interview to 168-Zham newspaper the vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs, the former chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense, former secretary of the Council of defense ministers of the Commonwealth of independent states (CIS) Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov spoke about the change of the Turkish doctrine in relation to post-soviet states.
– Leonid Grigorevich, it is absolutely unclear as to why Georgia is considered among the enemies of Turkey. The official Tbilisi has long ago included Ankara in its list of strategic allies. They jointly participate in big projects and the level of mutual trust is quite high. The presence of the Turkish capital in the economy of Georgia is essential. The leaders of the two countries are speaking about transparent or even conditional borders between the two states. They are building joint customs checkpoints. And now it turns out that Georgia is a threat for Turkey. What kind of paradox is this?
– As of Georgia everything is quite clear. Georgia has appeared in the enemy list of Turkey since the soviet times. After the collapse of the USSR Tbilisi has been outstanding with its unpredictable course of foreign policy despite the fact that it built strong relations with Ankara. Nevertheless, Ankara was often confused by the shifts of foreign policy of Georgia and there was no actual confidence or trust in relation to Georgia. Georgia would either enter the Collective Security Pact or decide to deflect from it in 1999. During the tenure of Shevardnadze it entered the CIS and then threatened to deflect from the Commonwealth. It would either jump in the lap of Moscow or would turn face and jump to Washington. Today Tbilisi has a special orientation – hostile relation to Russia, full orientation to west and NATO. That’s why the Turks caressed their heads by officially taking them out from the list of enemy states.
– It was expected that Russia would also be taken out from the red list of Turkey having taken into account the top-level official meetings, economic projects and in general the positive developments of the recent years in the framework of intergovernmental projects. However, it didn’t take place. Russia remained in the same place. Why do you it happened?
– I would mention several circumstances. What happened comes to prove the foreign policy weakness of Russia in relation to the southern strategic partnership. We could have worked with the government of Turkey to take us out from the enemy list. It is evident that Russians were inaccurate. Secondly, we should have taken into account the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO and perhaps while making such a decision Turkey was under tense pressure on part of the US. I think that a certain exchange took place. Israel appeared in the red list and in the Turkish society Israel is really considered enemy. Besides that this step of Ankara might have been stipulated by populist incentives. But instead the US might have demanded that Turkey leave Russia on the red list. Most probably such a trade took place here. But we should also not forget that in the south Caucasus Turkey and Russia are still considered competitors in the region. I think that the next revision of the list of Turkey would be a little different in our favor. Perhaps Russia will be taken out from that list. There are precedents for that. Currently Turkey is in a transition phase. It wasn’t fully ousted from Europe. It is kept in the NATO but don’t let it in the EU. Turkey has turned or is turning in the direction of the Islamic world. But today all the players behave as though Turkey is not a representative of the Islamic world. It needs partners. I also don’t include something else. I don’t know why but I think that the agreement on military cooperation signed between Russia and Israel on September 6 might have deterred Turkey from taking out Russia from the red list. Indeed military cooperation is not an alliance but still something negative in the eyes of Turkey. It is already clearly seen that Russia has agreed to attain information and in return provide something to Israel against the Islamic world. As a response we received what we received.
– Turkey has taken out Armenia from its red list. It is clear that these countries are incompatible with their mightiness. But in Armenia we have the Russian military base, which provides the security of the country.
– Here internal processes are taking place. Turkey wishes to be the boss in the South Caucasus. And it simply platys a game with us and Armenia by emphasizing that they’d left Russia in the neutral list and they approached Armenia to them. The attempts of Ankara resemble attempts of separating and secluding Armenia from Russia and keeping it under its influence. Let me say it this way. Anyone that tries to diminish the relations of Russia and Armenia is trying to include or bring Armenia closer to the NATO. I think that in this case by taking out Armenia from list and keeping Russia in there Turkey is trying to play a corporate game with Russia. Armenia is currently facing a dilemma too. It wishes to be with Russia because it is Armenia’s strategic partner and the guarantor of security but meanwhile it wishes to be partners with the west. It even goes in the direction of Turkey. I think this is the consequence of the fact that Russia doesn’t have a strong and straight-line foreign policy for the South Caucasus. And this also makes our allies hesitant. It deprives our allies, including Armenia, from confidence and trust whether Russia will back them during crisis situations.