Yesterday the official statistics publicized it regular information for the first 9 months of the current year. Let us mention in advance that the macroeconomic indices are not very encouraging. The rate of the economic growth has slowed down and for January-September has reached 2.8%. Let us remember that for January-August it was 3.1%; a month before that the index was 4% and before that 6.2% and 8.8%. Thus despite the thrill of the beginning of the year and the statements made at the beginning of this year the GDP growth approaches the margin defined by the state budget – 1.2%. Let us mention that if the economic growth was lowering during the previous months then in the aspect of a month the GDP was growing. Let’s say that the GDP grew in comparison to July by 49.1% and in relation to June – by 16.1%. In September, however, we had negative dynamics. Compared to August the GDP reduced by 24.6%. In January-September of the current almost all the sector had plummeted. The construction sector lowered by 5.2% compared to the previous year. The agriculture sector had gone through a real collapse – 17.9% slump. Let us mention that this sector has become the “scapegoat” of the economy. “The only negative impact on our economy had the agriculture sector, which had demonstrated an immense slump due to the climatic matters. If we hadn’t had that we’d have had a higher economic growth,” said the minister of finances of RA Tigran Davtyan at the beginning of the month. The Armenian Government forecasts 4-6 per cent GDP growth for next year. Minister Davtyan said it will allow the country to exceed the economic level of the pre-crisis year 2008. The sector of services grew by 7.4% and industry – by 10.9%. By the way, mostly due to the increase of the price of metals our industry registered growth. And industry is the only thing that spreads some light in this grim picture. The nominal GDP is expected to reach 3,760bn AMD (over U.S. $10bn), which is much higher than in 2008. Exports totaled $705.3 million or AMD 266.3 billion in Jan-Sept 2010 (43.9% year-on-year growth), and imports $2678.4 million or AMD 1011 billion (19.2% growth). As a result, adverse balance amounted to $1973.1 million or AMD 744.7 billion in Jan-Sept 2010. Armenia’s export grew 25.1%, in September, compared with August, while import shrank 1.3%. Indeed our officials will only speak about percentages – the progressive growth of the exportation rates because it is more favorable. And they will stay silent about the fact that our foreign trade is approaching the 2 billion USD margin. After reading these indices a question may originate, “how come we have spent over 2 billion USD but the rates of the USD don’t seem to lower?” And this question was answered several days ago by the Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan at the National Assembly. He mentioned that the foreign remittances have grown. He mentioned it as a factor, which proves the economic activation. But on the other hand it again comes to prove that our economy continues its trifling policy. We suffice our needs with the products of the outside. Unfortunately the Armenian cheese hasn’t conquered the world. Jermuk hasn’t become a center of tourism and neither did Dilijan become a business center. The 23% growth of the foreign trade creates another question. How come the retail trade has only grown for only 0.4%? The impression is that the Armenian citizens are only in wholesale trade. They gather with the building or the neighborhood and go buy several tons of sugar. Then they split it up. By the way, this question seems more entangled and complex when we review the indices of wages in the same NSS release. Thus, according to official statistics during the first 9 months of the current year the salaries have grown only by 7.9%. And the level of employment has reduced if we believe in the indices of the NSS. And doing such analyses based on these data is meaningless. The indices of the retail trade indeed do not reflect the actual volumes of purchase of goods sold in supermarkets and stalls. Last year our economy was slumping. The retail trade was neither growing nor reducing. And that was conditioned with the lottery of the receipts. And now the buyers don’t impatiently wait o demand the receipt. Now let’s try to wrap up the picture.
So:
A) Compared to the crisis year the economy grew by 2.8%,
B) Last year the indicator of the influence of the last year was the construction sector as it drastically failed. This year this slump continues.
C) Unlike the previous year agriculture plummeted (doesn’t matter what the reasons are),
D) Retail trade indices didn’t change,
E) The index of inflation exceeds the forecasted figure,
F) Let’s add to this the fact that during the first 9 months of this year 70.000 people have permanently left Armenia.
What conclusions can we draw from this? Of course, only one – We have “overcome” the crisis with honor.