Dangerous games

13/10/2010

A few days ago the founding chairman of the Heritage party Raffi Hovhannisian suggested that his bill on the recognition of the NKR independence should be postponed till the nest sessions of the NA. “I request your support to make this a pan-national initiative to ensure that it enters in the agenda of the NA and we all together examine and determine when it would be the best time to include it in the agenda and make it a legislation,” said Hovhannisian by adding that if this matter doesn’t enter in the agenda of the next NA session it will definitely be voted for afterwards. The NKR independence and the Heritage’s suggestion to discuss it as soon as possible by finding it a necessity is not quite politically expedient for the government at least at this phase. It is evident that this will mechanically cause the destruction of the negotiations of the matter at least in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. And no one can say what can happen after that. As a matter of fact, this matter depends on whether the Heritage will suggest this bill to an NA discussion or not. And this is why this situation is so sensitive and delicate. It may also bring ambiguous results. The inclusion of this bill in the NA agenda and organization of discussions regarding this matter is indeed important for the regulation of the NKR conflict. The ruling Republican Party (RPA) made clear that it will block an opposition bill obliging Armenia to formally recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state if is put to a vote in parliament. The National Assembly debated and was due to vote on the bill, drafted by the opposition Heritage, on Tuesday. The party’s leader, Raffi Hovannisian, postponed the vote until the end of this month after consultations with speaker Hovik Abrahamyan and other leaders of the parliament’s pro-government majority. It is not yet clear whether Heritage will go ahead with the vote when the parliament convenes for its next plenary session scheduled for October 25-29. Hovannisian indicated he could again delay it in the hope of mustering greater political support for the initiative. As yesterday the former minister of foreign affairs of Armenia Alexander Arzumanyan stated it may on the one side become an additional lever for Armenia and on the other hand it may become necessary for Armenia to recognize the independence of Armenia. It is a totally different issue the matter of the bill’s voting. If the NA majority, the RPA, is against the voting for the bill it will turn out that the government of Armenia is against the independence of Armenia. On the other hand, by voting for the bill Armenia will virtually cease the peaceful resolution of the conflict, which among other things will increase the possibility of resumption of war. It means the NA opposition has brought the NA majority to a deadlock. This will indeed be considered a good thing for the political context of Armenia. But during the concrete voting of the bill any step of the government will endanger the process of the NKR conflict resolution. These facts are so simple and apparent that Raffi Hovhannisian personally knows that as well that the pan-national consent on this is mildly said embarrassing.