Judging from the developments of the previous years in the modern history of Armenia no one else can exceed the second President Kocharyan in cutting “red laces.”
The problem is not that the former President wouldn’t discriminate and would do the same thing for a food production with 4-5 employees and the opening of a big business. The problem is that in our country almost nothing is being opened in our country. But as you know there are no “no way” situations for our government. If new factories are not opened they may visit the already existing ones. For example, yesterday President Serzh Sargsyan visited the Grand Candy Company on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the company. Indeed, at first sight, there is nothing to be too astonished about especially if we take into account the fact that there are only a few operating big factories in Armenia and Grand Candy recently entered the Guinness Book of Records with the largest chocolate bar. And ultimately every type of such visit (opening, re-opening, etc) is done with one purpose. That’s an opportunity for the journalists to ask a few questions on TV and get certain answers. And as a result these questions have got nothing to do with the visit. Of course, there are also interpretations, which relate to the theme. For example, yesterday the minister of economy Nerses Yeritsyan also visited Grand Candy with the President of Armenia. Yeritsyan yesterday said the following, “During the crisis period it is very important for us to be able to identify stimulus of growth especially in the food sector.” The reason why the minister signified the food sector is more than clear. He was at a food production factory. But the most noteworthy thing is the first two words – the crisis period. It is noteworthy to hear this from Yeritsyan, who several months ago had declared that the crisis was overcome in Armenia. So the crisis is reborn for the minister of economy. Indeed, there are grounds to think so. Which sector did the crisis hit most? Indeed the construction sector suffered the most. So the construction sector serves as sort of an indicator to measure the depth of the crisis because we want it or not it is one of the cornerstones of our economy. Today this branch of economy has regressed even compared to the crisis year. The GDP has grown by only 3.1%. But we are satisfied. Most importantly the ones, who give money to our government, are satisfied, for example the International Monetary Fund. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a four-percent growth for Armenia in 2010, Guillermo Tolosa, IMF resident representative in Armenia, said Wednesday at a news conference. Earlier, Tolosa said that the IMF left its 2010 economic growth projection for Armenia unchanged, at 4.8%. Explaining the lowered outlook, he said that it went down because of severe shocks in the agriculture sector. While rebounding trade and remittances are reviving industry and services, agriculture has been hit hard by adverse weather conditions. The Armenian economy is slowly recovering from a sharp downturn of over 14 percent last year. Reflecting the pick-up in activity, credit has also begun to flow to the private sector, Tolosa said. In a separate written statement, the IMF insisted that Armenia is “slowly recovering” from last year’s recession that resulted in a more than 14 percent fall in GDP. It predicted that the Armenian economy will expand by 4.5 percent next in 2011. “It is interesting because the agricultural sector was one of the few sectors, if not the only one, that had sort of avoided the effects of the international storm that took place in 2009 only to suffer a very homegrown Armenian storm in 2010,” Tolosa told a news conference. The sector was hit hard by an unusually cold and rainy spring. Heavy rain and hailstorms caused serious damage to farmers across Armenia, dramatically pushing up the cost of fruits and vegetables. Thus, our government has done everything very well for the IMF. Only the climatic conditions have become a problem for them. And so as evaluation for the great job Armenia may in the near future receive another 56 million USD from the general 410 million loan. But for Tolosa not everything is as ideal as from the first sight. Two months ago he stated that the macro economy of Armenia works with an old engine and it needs to be replaced. This request-suggestion was kind of ignored by our authorities. Yesterday the journalists asked Tolosa whether we still work with the old engine. “Indeed in a new environment this engine is necessary. At present we work with the old engine but we see that the parts of the new engine are being formed,” he said. Any “car mechanic” would tell us that if the engine is old than it’s meaningless to praise all the other parts of the car. So we may say that the IMF representative has given an extremely negative opinion about our economy. And the rest of the statements have an objective to temper this evaluation. For example, one of those is that the IMF representative has positively assessed the work of the tax administration of Armenia by saying that in the near future the positive results will become visible. Let us notice that the IMF, which is being so much criticized by us, is more sincere with its evaluation and assessment than our government. For example, when speaking about the exportation Yeritsyan said, “Exportation requires one type of knowledge and producing requires another type. Unfortunately the exportation knowledge is not enough for our state to support certain companies in exportation matters. But certain work is being done in this regard.” Unlike Yeritsyan, who blames our businessmen of the negative balance of our foreign trade for not having sufficient knowledge Tolosa mentions other reasons – high rates of payments. He finds its astonishing the large amount of value added tax, which expresses the debt of the government to the exporters. “We may discuss whether the new engine is being prepared with relevant speed. But we don’t have essential doubts that the Armenian government is going in the right direction,” said Tolosa and added that they also believe eon the official statistics of Armenia.