The story about the intention of Russia to sell two divisions of anti-zenithal missile complexes C-300 to Azerbaijan is activated again and is a topic of discussions. Specifically, some newspapers have commented on Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statements and written that the president had been informed about the preparation of this deal between Moscow and Baku. However, there is no concrete information about the issue so far. The 168 Hours talked to Viktor Litovkin, a Russian renown expert and an expert of the Independent Military Theory, who petitioned the Armenian readers not to dramatize the situation even if there is an agreement on supplying anti-zenithal C-300 missile complex.
– What does the purchase of the two divisions of the C-300 give to Azerbaijan?
– I am not sure if there has been such agreement. Anyway the Russian State Defense Projects does not say anything about it. There will not be more questions if anybody from any official institution officially announces about the purchase of the C-300 weapons by Azerbaijan.
– Not only the Azeri but the Russian newspapers have written such information by referring to their high rank sources of information. There can be no smoke without fire. What can Azerbaijan benefit from by purchasing the C-300 systems?
– Generally there are two types of the C-300: the C-300-PMU, which is on wheels and is intended for stabile objects such as cities, factories, and defense of commanding points, and the C-300-B, which is intended for moving to different places and protection of defense forces. The one in the Russian defense basement in Gyumri is C-300-B. Both of these types have almost the same characteristics and they can find the object with radio locators in the distance of up to 400 kilometers and can meanwhile follow 40 targets and bomb in 120-150 kilometers distance. The targets can be different such as helicopters, aircrafts and winged missiles. I am not sure that this weapon can give any privilege to any of the parties because these systems are intended first of all for protection of objects and armed forces. Yes, the rocket may fall to the ground and damage, but the C-300 does not have a function of targeting flying objects, thus we should not speak of the efficiency. If Azerbaijan does that, they will do it first of all for protecting their oil basins, pipelines, and the other parts of their populated places. For example, in order to protect Baku, one division of the C-300 is enough if we take into consideration the fact that the intensively of one air attack (theoretically) is not so high. But I am suspicious that any of the neighbors generally may commit air attack on Baku, Azerbaijan. Karabakh does not have the necessary armament for air bombing. They have helicopters but these are not useful for attacking the oil basins or other relative objects as the helicopters are intended for fighting against objects in battlefields. I think the possible sale of the C-300 by Russia is a moral-psychological step for showing a balanced approach to the countries of South Caucasus. By the way, the C-300 has not been used in a battlefield yet. There was time when they said that this system might be used to protect Yugoslavia against the attacks of NATO and the US, but Russia did not sell them to Belgrade and we saw the bombings of Yugoslavia. There were rumors about Iran as well, but as you see the weapons were not sold to Iran either. But they exist in the 102nd military basement of Armenia. But it should be taken into consideration that these belong not to Armenia but Russia. It is true that Russia must protect Armenia as a member of the Collective Security Organization. The Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed this standpoint during his recent visit to Armenia. Anyway this powerful system belongs to Russia and Russia is the one to decide when and how to use it. Generally I don’t believe that the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan may become critical to the extent of using air force to use the C-300. For many times Azerbaijan has announced about power solution of the conflict of Karabakh if no peaceful solutions of the conflict are found other than the option offered by the OSCE Minsk Group. There is a good Russian proverb, which says that promising does not mean to get married. People know that many things can be said in Caucasus but actions are different. From this prospective I don’t think Azerbaijan will or is ready to use force despite the militaristic statements. As for Armenia, it behaves normally and with honor. I don’t think it has any bad risk.
– Anyway let’s discuss the most pessimistic option about a war in Karabakh. Armenia assures that in such case the responsive attacks will not be late on the energetic objects and mines, as well as the HES of Mingechauri. And in this case the half of Azerbaijan will simply sink. If Russia sells the C-300 to Azerbaijan, Armenia will simply lose this opportunity.
– I don’t think the conflict may go so far that there may be a need to sink half of Azerbaijan. Nobody wants that. There are things that are impossible to return.
– Some circles in Armenia are not against the prospective of having the second Russian military basement in Armenia and they think it may be a guarantee of security, as well as an opportunity of partial solution of unemployment in that region. Maybe Armenia really needs another basement. Does Russia need that? Is Moscow interested in that?
– Deployment of the Russian forces in other countries is connected with huge financial expenses. There is not too much money in Russia. We want to have a military basement in the Gulf of Aden, on Sokotra island. The pirates of Somali are very active there and it is natural that we want to control the situation there. Russia even is ready to establish a joint military unit there together with the US, France, the Great Britain and any other country. There is a military basement in Syria, Tartus, which is a so called point of material and technical provision. Russia wants to enlarge it up to the Mediterranean Sea, but there are no resources for that and no sufficient navy either… From the Black Sea navy there is only a small part there, i.e. the “Moscow” and small ships. For Russia now the Central Asia is a priority, where there are armed conflicts, the Afghan traffic and they are involved in international conflicts. Russia needs to be present there. First of all, for the purpose of supporting the forces of NATO, second, for controlling the situation in the Middle East. This is very important, especially if it concerns the responsibility zone of the Collective Security Organization. First of all, the resources and powers should be used in that direction. From this prospective I am not sure if Russia is interested in having the second military basement in Armenia. In consideration of the tension in South Caucasus there are sufficient military powers there: there are military basements in Armenia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. There are no reasons for an extreme conflict. The Armenian-Azeri conflict, which is the most dangerous one, now is in the freezing phase unlike the militaristic statements on part of Azerbaijan. The actions will not pass the limit of mutual shootings and diversions.
– What if there is a decision to deploy peacekeeping forces in Karabakh?
– At that time hardly may Russia refuse to do that. It is their zone of interests. Definitely the Armenian party wants that because the status-quo is very important for Karabakh. The presence of the peacekeeping forces is in their interests. In addition, as far as I understand the people of Karabakh are very positive to Russia as they have not forgotten the Russian language, culture and traditions. Certainly the Russian peacekeepers will protect Karabakh. This is for sure. It means that they will try to not only reconcile the conflicting parties as it is usually done during such conflicts, but will also protect them. But Azerbaijan will be against such scenario as it will be deprived of the tool of influencing on the situation, which is not so effective, i.e. the opportunity of making militaristic statements. I think that it would be a good solution to exchange the deployment of the peacekeeping forces with the buffer zones, i.e. the zones that Azerbaijan wants back first of all, of course with the conditions of keeping the corridor which connects Armenia with Karabakh. I think this is what they are talking about with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group, but the mediators are keeping the topic of the negotiations in secret in order to escape from unnecessary chaos and problems. If eventually a decision is made to deploy peacekeepers in Karabakh, this will not be limited will the Russian peacekeepers only. As the experience shows, definitely there will be representatives from different countries such as the countries of the OSCE Minsk Group. Russia is interested in the development of such scenario as it is an opportunity to strengthen its representation in South Caucasus in addition to the three military basements in Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The military presence of the other countries is good for Russia as it will not seem as an occupant in other countries such as Azerbaijan and the United States. Currently it is what the Georgian president Michail Sahakashvili is blaming Russia for.