Regardless of what extent the political-analytical thinking of Armenia tried to degrade the visit of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Baku on that very day it became clear that Medvedev didn’t visit Baku with no good reason.
The agreement on the state border is a reason enough to consider the visit meaningful. But the most important thing was the signing of the document on increasing the volume of gas to be provided by Azerbaijan to Russia; the agreement, which was signed between GazProm and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan. This is such a serious development that on this background it seems ridiculous to brag about centennial brotherhood and declarative statements, which our TV companies would show with great delight. The signing of the agreement was a great achievement for Russia in the geopolitical aspect on the background on the competition with Europe. That is the reason why Russian and foreign media outlets would signify this aspect of Medvedev’s visit to Baku in particular. But in order to make the whole picture clearer let us present to you the preamble.
Dynamics of Russia-Azerbaijan “gas” relations
Till 2007 Azerbaijan was a gas importer. This country was annually receiving 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia via Mozdok-Kazimogomed pipeline, the capacity of which was annually 5 billion cubic meters. In parallel with developing its gas processing Azerbaijan gradually started to suffice its internal needs and ultimately refused from the Russian gas. In 2009 in Azerbaijan 23.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced. In 2009 the pipeline started to work in the opposite direction. Russia appeared in the role of the importer. The agreement between Russia and Azerbaijan on gas importation to Russia was signed in October 2009. At the beginning the parties agreed that 0.5 billion cubic meters would be provided to Russia in 2010 but soon they agreed to increase the volume up to 1 billion cubic meters. The provision of gas started on January 1, 2010. By the visit of Medvedev the beginning of the third phase of these relations were launched. And while in Armenia they are doing calculations about the benefits of the prolongation of the deployment of the Russian troops in Armenia yesterday the Azerbaijani state oil company and the Russian GazProm signed an agreement about the increase of the volume of natural gas provided to Russia. According to that in 2011 the volume of the natural gas provided to Russia from Azerbaijan will reach to annually 2 billion cubic meters and starting from 2012 this figure will exceed the one of the previous year. Even merely in the commercial aspect this deal is very profitable for Azerbaijan. The Russians buy gas with European prices – 245 dollars per 1000 cubic meters. In approximate calculations in 2012 Azerbaijan will have an annual income of 5 billion USD only from gas. But in the general scheme this is not the only important circumstance.
Azerbaijani gas in global developments
As we have already mentioned GazProm is going to pay quite a price for the Azerbaijani oil – 245 USD. This is an unprecedentedly high price for GazProm. As the Russian Komersant writes, according to unofficial data, Russia buys the Turkmen gas at 190 USD and Kazakhstan at 230 USD. It means that in the economic aspect the Azerbaaijani gas is not profitable for Russia. So it means that in the economic aspect the Azerbaijani gas solves serious political issues for Russia. The thing is that the Azerbaijani gas should have become the main resource of the European Nabucco project. And Nabucco is the competitor of the Russian South Stream pipeline, the purpose of which is to reduce the dependence on Russian gas by transferring the Asian gas to the European states (see the picture). Via Nabucco (which was planned to be completed by 2013) it was supposed to transfer to Europe the Turkmen, Iraqi and Azerbaijani gas – each providing 8-10 billion cubic meters respectively. Thus, by buying all the reserves from Azerbaijan Russia deprives Nabucco from resources. In Baku the leader of GazProm Aleksey Miller stated that there is no upper notch for gas provision and his company is willing to buy the whole amount of gas, which Azerbaijan can export. Moreover, in Miller’s words GazProm is planning to buy the whole gas processed from Shah-Deniz-2 project as well as the shares of the British BP from Shah-Deniz-1 project. “By buying larger volumes of Azerbaijani gas Russia once again puts into doubt the work of Nabucco,” told the Russian Vesti the expert of Kalita-Finans financial group Andrey Gangan. Let us mention that the Russians are following their energetic interests not with rough means but diplomatically and why not with hidden cynicism. In regard of Nabucco Medvedev, for instance, said in Baku, “We cannot and should not hinder other projects. Let those projects win, which bring incomes.” Certain Russian experts think that Nabucco will be constructed anyways. “This project will come to an end even if the pipeline remains empty because it is a political project,” says analyst Andrey Polishchuk. Komersant also writes about the possible usefulness of Nabucco by calling attention to the fact that the president of the country Ilham Aliyev didn’t categorically refuse from participation of his country in this project. “Only the proven gas reserves in Azerbaijan exceed 2 trillion cubic meters and the potential capacity is 5 trillion. That is the reason why gas will be enough for us for decades,” said Aliyev. The head of the East European Gas Analysis Mikhail Korchemkin thinks that by 20155 in Shah-Deniz-1 and Shah-Deniz-2 mines it will be possible to produce 10-12 billion cubic meter gas. Therefore the country can suffice the needs of several countries. Nabucco still has a chance to be equipped by the Azerbaijani gas. But at this moment the owner of the situation is Russia, which for the moment is taking care and consuming the gas provided by Azerbaijan. Thus, Medvedev, at least temporarily but showed a finger to Europe and most importantly for us with the help of Azerbaijan. And it’s no accident that the French Le Figaro writes, “For Russia Azerbaijan has a global geopolitical importance. The key thing is that the country doesn’t shift its direction to the west as Georgia did. That is the reason why Moscow is trying to balance its steps with Armenia.” After this it becomes clear that Medvedev’s visit wasn’t meaningless as the Armenian side claims but meant to solve key geopolitical issues for Russia. And this is going to harm because the rapprochement of relations of Russia with Azerbaijan harms us. And the opinion that Medvedev merely visited Baku not to insult Azerbaijanis seems a childish naivety. After the abovementioned the exact reality is being reflected. The visit to Armenia was a preparatory step to pay a serious visit to Azerbaijan. Shortly said Medvedev came to Armenia to put a soft pillow under our head. The pity is that many of our high-rank people don’t wish to raise their heads from the soft pillow.