Yesterday the foreign affairs ministry of Armenia officially confirmed that the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton will visit Armenia on July 4-5. During the past 20 years this the second time that such a high level official from the US is visiting Armenia. In 1992 the former State Secretary of the US James Baker also paid a visit to Armenia. She will be visiting Yerevan from Baku and will spend here one night. The visit of the US State Secretary is important not only from the political but also organizational aspect. Due to Clinton’s visit strict security measures have been undertaken. Recently Armenia hosted several dozens of representatives of Special Forces from the US to take care of security measures. Indeed, there is no information about where Clinton is going to say or what places she’s going to visit because of security purposes. Let us inform you that there won’t be very many sniper shooters because the State Secretary is not going to be outdoors very often. Instead starting from the airport the armed police officers will watch the roads every 20 meters. Let us mention that according to our information even in Yerevan Clinton will be transported by a vehicle brought from the US. The Armenian side ensured that they can provide armored cars but the Americans refused. Besides the President’s office and the US Embassy Clinton will also visit one cultural center – most probably a museum. Besides that she will be meeting with the representatives of the civil society and will be discussing issues regarding the human rights and democracy. Let us also mention that Clinton will visit Yerevan from Baku, where she will have meetings with President Ilham Aliyev and foreign affairs minister Elmar Mamedyarov. After her visit to Armenia, on July 5 Clinton will leave for Tbilisi, where her regional trip will end. During her short visit Clinton will meet with the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and the foreign affairs minister Edward Nalbandyan. Other meetings are not planned. “The agenda of the negotiations in Yerevan will include a broad spectrum of topics aimed at developing the US-Armenian friendship. The parties will also discuss regional issues interesting to both of the sides.” This is the official information that we have from the foreign affairs ministry. And the political circles are sure that such a high-level official is not visiting Armenia to discuss some agenda issues. Vice versa, her visit should we viewed in the context of the recently made statement of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. Clinton will visit not only Armenia but also Azerbaijan. It is evident that by her visit she is going to request or more accurately urge the leaders of the both states abide with the brought up recommendations. What new developments will follow Clinton’s visit? Will there be new recommendations or suggestions? For example, the former foreign affairs minister of Armenia, member of the ANC Alexander Arzumanyan says that there will be no new recommendations. “Indeed there will be no new recommendations because three days ago the three co-chairs clearly states what’s on the desk. It was clearly said that the L’Aquila statement is still valid and that is the basis of negotiations. They urged the presidents of the two countries to more actively work in that direction. And so the visit of the State Secretary should be viewed in that context. She is flying here to remind that the negotiation should proceed in the framework of these recommendations. Besides that they have clearly mentioned that during a certain period of time a peace treaty should be prepared and signed. So any visits paid during this period will be aimed at enforcing these recommendations,” says Arzumanyan. Is it possible that during Clinton’s visit the rapprochement process of the Armenian-Turkish relations will be refreshed? When responding to this question the ANC representative says, “As long as the Turks don’t see any progress in the resolution of the NKR process on their behalf it is excluded that they will sign any document or open any border. I exclude this. Turkey originally had a condition like that and this condition still exists. I don’t see any reason why they should do it now.” The number one issue discussed in the framework of the NKR conflict resolution is the return of the neighboring territories of the NKR. And only after that comes the self-determination of the people of the NKR and security issues. In this regard, Mr. Arzumanyan says, “During the meetings of leaders of such a level it is excluded that they will discuss details. They will only discuss principal political matters. Particularly, they will speak about the development of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in the context of the NKR conflict resolution and will speak about the approach of the US regarding this matter.” But the chair of the Republican faction Galust Sahakyan says it is not right to consider this visit in the context of the statement of the leaders of the three states because this visit was planned much sooner than this. “This is a regional visit and is connected with the internal issues in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. There will be new recommendations. As of the statement let me say that the priority there is given to the right of the national for self-determination, which inspires with optimism. The important thing is that in regard of the main discussions the NKR will become as one of the participants. The text of the statement implies this,” says G. Sahakyan. As of the question whether Clinton will try to refresh the Turkish-Armenian protocols during her visit to the region taken into account the fact that the deputy-secretary of state directly adverted to that, Sahakyan says, “These approaches are assessable. In this regard, Clinton takes the responsibility because she participates in the signing process of the protocols. We have suspended the process here but we have said that whenever Turkey is ready to ratify the protocols we will be willing to do so as well. Taken into account the current situation and environment in Turkey I don’t think it is going to happen. They are trying to tie the issue with the NKR conflict, which is not acceptable for us and in the context of the international diplomacy.” The head of the Hay Dat office of the ARF Kiro Manoyan presented to us his expectations regarding Clinton’s visit. He says, “It is clear that this is not a touristic visit. The goals of the State Secretary to visit Armenia and Azerbaijan are clear. During her meetings she will focus on the basis, which was brought up by the statement of the co-chairs. They will also speak about the Armenia-Turkey relations. In this regard the US has made great efforts and the visit inclines to not let these efforts go in vain. If you want to know the truth then part of the reason why the State Secretary is visiting the US is to pressure on the sides and has clear intentions to see results. At this moment we can’t claim that she’s going to reach her goal.” Is Azerbaijan ready to agree on the peace treaty if we take into account the fact even after the statement of the three leaders they don’t cease the military actions on the border? In this regard, Mr. Manoyan says, “First of all this should be obvious for the mediators, who ignore the notions of Azerbaijan to fail the peaceful resolution of the NKR conflict. However, the co-chairs are being silent and their attitude is that they are even trying to ignore what has happened.” In this regard an MP from the Heritage faction Armen Martirosyan says that despite the aggressive behavior of Azerbaijan they will not cease the negotiations. “I think that these provocations are attempts to fail the efforts of the negotiators. All we have to do is give an equivalent response. I don’t that that the control over the military actions is increasing gradually.” As of the visit of the US State Secretary, Mr. Martirosyan says, “As the US has a certain interest in the region I think that Mrs. Clinton will try to bring certain activeness to the process. As of solutions or signing of a document I am pessimistic and don’t think that we will witness such developments. I found it more realistic that during her visit Clinton will focus more on the democracy issues existing in the region and perhaps in this regard realistic steps may be expected. Martirosyan also thinks that this visit should be viewed in the context of the statement of the co-chairs. He says, “This statement is a consequence of the incorrect foreign policy of Armenia. We have registered regress in the democratic processes, which has debilitated our negotiation grounds. The clue to our problem is internal political and we should be able to conduct changes and reforms within our country and only then expect success in the international arena.” The deputy-State Secretary of the US Phillip Gordon also provided details regarding Clinton’s visit. He mentioned that Clinton’s visit will also serve as a good occasion to revive the Armenia-Turkey protocols and refresh the regulation process. By recalling the words of the Armenian president Sargsyan, according to which if Turkey ratifies the protocols Armenia will do the same, Gordon said, “The United States believes that the resolution of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and the opening of borders between these two countries will be favorable for both of the countries and the region as a whole.” Gordon also spoke about the incident on the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontline. He said, “The cases of violence of the border showed that we cannot consider stability an assumable phenomenon. The US State Secretary will have an opportunity to emphasize in Armenia and Azerbaijan, what the presidents of the three states have said in Toronto.”
