Economic component of controversy

18/05/2010 Babken TUNYAN

It is no secret that the readers become quite attracted by the articles, which start like this, “As our sources from the X body inform…” And then they start to provide details on an extremely confidential conversation. But many of the readers do not give much importance to this. But the “residue” remains. The reader realizes that the extremely confidential meeting is important because it is not anticipated for additional ears. When they write that Peter or John had a close-door meeting we may believe in that because the source may have noticed how the two secret sharers enter in the same room and shut the doors. But when they say that the meeting was secret and Peter literally told John this or that it becomes it becomes very suspicious. But besides becoming suspicious the readers think that something is going on since this information was publicized. The rumors and conversations about the possible return of Robert Kocharyan to politics, the possibility of him becoming a Prime Minister and the Sargsyan-Kocharyan conflict are based on such a level – rumors, whispers, “internal sources” and walls. Then these rumors turn into public discussions. However, when you start to review the statements and announcements made by various people you realize that there is certain tension between Sargsyan and Kocharyan. And no matter how surprising it would seem this controversy becomes more evident not from the secret meeting that took place in somebody’s garden but from the statements made in the economic field. Let us start from the point that since the impact of the crisis when the economy majorly plummeted the most outstanding official statement was made, according to which the RA economy has a vulnerable structure and is not diversified. As you remember Tigran Sargsyan presented this as a “lesson” of the crisis. Let us mention that besides the Prime Minister the international financial structures have also suddenly started to speak about this. As an example, we can mention the World Bank. We are saying suddenly because this economy was built in front of their eyes and based on their recommendations. The construction balloon was also criticized, which was zealously inflated during the last decade and it exploded with the same zealousness. It is also understood that the Prime Minister couldn’t possibly indirectly blame the former president without the consent and approval of the incumbent president. Kocharyan’s response was followed right after this. He reminded that during his tenure the economy was growing in dual-digit numbers and the level of the foreign debt was diminishing. Moreover, Kocharyan has lightly criticized the government by advising not to ignore the construction. And then they started to speak about the economic growth and its reasons. They started to express opinions that we need to thank the foreign remittances that conduced to the dual-digit growth and not the talented brains of our government. Quite recently such a thought was brought up by the head of the migration service, former minister of social issues Gagik Yeganyan. But the brightest thought was brought up two days ago by the deputy-director of the US Agency for International Development John Seong. He said, “The global crisis hit Armenia especially harder compared to other countries. We should learn lessons from that. Starting from 2000s Armenia has relied on very little industry up to the beginning of the crisis. For example, one of those was construction; financial fuel was mainly received at the expense of remittances from Russia.” It is noteworthy that Seong has made this statement during a conference, which was organized by the RA Ministry of Economy and the National Competition Foundation of Armenia. In other words this was organized by the support of the Prime Minister. To a certain extent this is a normal and joyful phenomenon. It means that the previous and current governments are criticizing each other on the ideological ground in the aspect of the economic policy. Moreover, this kind of criticism, which is not directed to anyone, turns out to be quite serious. As a matter of fact, the current government is blaming the previous government of blowing an economic balloon. It blames the previous government by having the support and compliment of the international structures. As they say they criticize more than the opposition does. In the background, it is hard to assume that Robert Kocharyan can at the moment submit the post of the Prime Minister. Of course, nothing should be excluded as in this country everything is possible. But in this case, no one can understand anything. It means that the post of the Prime Minister is acquired by a person, who had endangered the Armenian economy. Having written all this we shouldn’t ignore one important thing – the absence of sincerity. First of all, the ones, who are speaking about the ill structure of the economy, were bragging about the “tiger-like leaps” of the economy about 5 years ago. Besides everything they forget another important thing – the currency rate. When the AMD was revaluating they were connecting it with the “economic growth.” But now they are criticizing this revaluation. But when the internal producer was suffering as a result of the process he was advised not to complain and strengthen the competitiveness. Indeed, they are not speaking about this because the criticizer of the current economy is the compliment-giver of the previous policy.  When speaking of the lack of sincerity the current government is still paying a lot of attention to the sector of construction despite the criticism. Of course, now they are conducting a different type of policy by offering mortgage taxes to sell the vacant apartments. Besides that the international monetary transfers still play a crucial role. Of course, during the crisis year their volume was slightly reduced. But in the first quarter of this year, according to the data of the Central Bank of RA, the volume of inflow is being sustained. Through the bank remittances physical entities have transferred 261 million USD (almost as much as in the first quarter of the previous year). Moreover, the remittances of Russia grew by 12%, amounting to 162.7 million USD. If we compare these data with the foreign trade indices (when hundreds of millions of dollars goes to the pockets of foreign companies from our country) then it becomes clear that Armenia is still on the “remittance needle.” But in the other aspect everything else is the same, fight against corruption, reduction of the shady economy, competitive economy, etc. The only difference is that they have started to speak more about this and in a loftier manner.