– What happened as a result of the visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen? It seemed that the government should have responded to the revised Madrid version but no concrete statement was made in this regard.
– At the beginning we witnessed a new attention in relation to Azerbaijan. This was an interesting theater in the framework of the Minsk group. During this conflict Azerbaijan sort of gave its consent to the Madrid Principles. And it was news as though Armenia didn’t agree to those. I think the point of this was to connect the NKR conflict with the Armenia-Turkey relations to even a greater extent. Now the Mink Group will try to register progress or imitate progress in the NKR conflict resolution. This would give a new spark to the Armenia-Turkey relations. But it is clear now that the protocols have demised. But this time I am not concerned that Armenia will become weaker or Armenia will have more victory in this process. It is even more dangerous that Azerbaijan as usual threatens and is more aggressive with starting a war.
– Is Turkey’s influence more on the Mink Group as it’s trying to register progress within the framework of the Minsk Group?
– Both yes and no. The Minsk Group is seeking some progress to present to Turkey. Karabakh has no connection with Armenia-Turkey relations. Turkey with its own decision curtailed the demand of the NKR from the protocols. The protocols don’t say anything about the NKR and now Turkey is trying to link these two issues. But Washington and Moscow do not consider this demand acceptable. But Turkey is trying to portray the NKR as a precondition due to its internal policy and recovery of relations with Azerbaijan. By starting a reconciliation process with Armenia Turkey was underestimating the reaction of Azerbaijan. Turkey is not quite sure that anything can be expected from the NKR conflict resolution but has the need of submitting demands in the political aspect. On the other hand, the protocols are the problem of Armenia and Turkey and the problem is with Turkey. This country is facing a dilemma and cannot ratify those because of two reasons. First it hasn’t yet decided what it really wants from Armenia. Besides that, Turkey can wait 1-2 years but Armenia is saying you should do it now. Turkey doesn’t stop testing Armenia and doesn’t play as a quite sincere collaborator. It is elaborating new programs, which don’t satisfy America so much. Neither is Europe satisfied. Turkey is now closer to Iran and Russia.
– Can Turkey pressure on the US or Europe now? Are these countries cautious about Turkey?
– Indeed, they are concerned because they are afraid of losing Turkey. First the fact is that Turkey is pushed away from the west and is becoming a more Islamic government. And Armenia can be at a higher position because of the high pressure on Turkey. As for Armenia and Karabakh Azerbaijan’s rapprochement with Russia is dangerous. Russia and Turkey are close but they are still natural enemies, who are fighting for this region.
– But Armenia is the strategic partner of Russia. Armenia is a member of Russia’s established structures.
– Russia has Armenia. It is strong in Armenia. Now it will be easy for Russia to take over Azerbaijan. And Armenia has no response to all this.
– Nevertheless, in what state has our government appeared due to its initiating policy?
– Armenia had great hopes that it would achieve big success in the foreign policy. Armenia did its best and now it doesn’t have to do anything more. This whole burden is now on the shoulders of Turkey. And Turkey failed. And now it would be harder for the Armenian government to do anything for the NKR progress. Armenia has two strategic victories. The NKR is no more a precondition for the Armenia-Turkey relations. Even America and Russia say that the NKR is not a precondition for the rapprochement of Armenia-Turkey relations. The second victory is that Turkey has lost its chance and didn’t justify the expectations. Shortly said, the Armenia-Turkey protocols are the only issue in the region, where the US, Russia and Europe have common consent. All three support Armenia and are disappointed of Turkey. Thus, Armenia is in high positions. The second step is that Armenia can achieve even more if it ratifies the protocols even if Turkey doesn’t do so. It may bring a strong strategic strength to Armenia.
– At any rate Turkey links its relations with Armenia with the NKR conflict. And by launching the Armenian-Turkish process our government seemingly involved that country into the resolution process of the NKR conflict.
– Those are just words. Turkey doesn’t wish to lose Azerbaijan and thinks that it had made a mistake by not including the NKR in the protocols. Now it is trying to correct its mistakes. But it’s too late and it cannot succeed in including the NKR in the protocols. And these statements are made for internal policy and complimenting Azerbaijan. The most important thing is that for the first time the US, Russia and Europe are objecting the inclusion of the NKR conflict in the protocols.
– And in the NKR conflict resolution is the Minsk Group more supporting the self-identification issue of the NKR or the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan?
– Even the Minsk Group now knows that the NKR cannot return to Azerbaijan. They are trying to find some way to convince Azerbaijan of this. And so the Minks Group is more focused on returning the neighboring territories of the NKR rather than the NKR. And the Madrid Principles are not important as it is not a peace treaty. Those are merely principles to negotiate around. It is neither the Koran nor the Bible. And the danger is that Azerbaijan is now too far from this issue and now wants everything. The Minsk Group is trying to find a way to make Azerbaijan understand that it has lost the NKR. But this doesn’t mean that they have a more pro-Armenian standpoint. They think in a more realistic way and register the facts. The reality is that any motive that will attempt to return the NKR to Azerbaijan will lead to a war.
– Do you find it possible that the NKR conflict may be resolved in the near future because the negotiations are more active; the parties meet more often? And the statements of international structures have become more frequent.
– This was always said with the smile of Mathew Bryza. When years ago the diplomats of the Minsk Group started to work they were always saying that this is the last year and that we were close to the resolution, etc. They are creating a political theater as though they are important and that the process is important. They want to show that they are involved in the negotiation process to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan near the negotiation table. However, the key of the solution of the NKR conflict is the inclusion of the NKR in the negotiation process. And the former President of Armenia was the person, who ousted Karabakh from the negotiations. This was his personal decision. And Azerbaijan doesn’t wish for Karabakh to return. If the Minsk Group wishes to reach success it needs to understand that the only way is to return the NKR to the negotiation process.
– RA President Serzh Sargsyan announced that for the sake of self-identification we may yield the neighboring territories.
– During his interview Serzh Sargsyan didn’t say anything new. This is the official policy of Armenia, which puts a tougher pressure on Azerbaijan. Although I don’t think that it’s the right thing to return the territories. There are two similar lessons from the past – the protocols and Azerbaijan. Armenia is in stronger positions but it needs a stronger political course. Regardless of the circumstance of what’s going on by Turkey next time Armenia should offer a precondition because Turkey and Azerbaijan only appreciate the strength. The protocols are already dead. Turkey killed those. The Armenian-Turkish diplomacy is trying to pass near the protocols. For that purpose Armenia may ratify the protocols to create confusion in Turkey. We should ratify because Turkey won’t do it. But we shouldn’t recall the protocols because then we will resemble Turkey. If we ratify maybe our positions will be stronger.
– The RA government also claims like you that due to our initiating policy we have appeared in more beneficial positions.
– Discussions are proceeding within the government. The most part of them tell the President to recall the signature; the rest of the President’s teammates tell him to maintain it. I don’t think our opinions are shared. I am only giving my ideas.
– Do you envision the possibility of extraordinary elections?
– Everything is possible. Perhaps by-elections may seem a little unusual for Armenia. Unfortunately Armenia doesn’t like fair elections. Perhaps this is the struggle of the parties within the power but not a sincere one for the sake of free and fair elections. I think that we still have an unresolved issue – the March 1. The political polarization is pretty large; same with the economic. And we don’t feel that these issues are being solved. There is a need of a dialog. The last and only fair elections of Armenia were the first elections.
– What’s expected for Sargsyan in the US?
– He is invited to an event in Washington DC. But he is not invited to the White House. The second purpose of the invitation is the Armenian-Turkish process but not the NKR conflict resolution. Yes, America still pressures on Turkey and not us. The Washington event includes the Armenian-Turkish issue because they are attempting to make Armenia and Turkey meet once again and give a new life to the protocols. On the other hand the secret Armenian-Turkish diplomacy is still proceeding first in Kiev, Syria and now in DC. It is no accident that the government representatives of the two countries visited Kiev and Syria at the same time. Independent of the US Armenia and Turkey are trying to find ways. It is no accident that currently Turkey is trying to hold cultural initiatives. Last week the officials of Turkey were in Armenia. This means that by passing the protocols they are trying to find ways.