– The official information reports that the economy has grown during the first two months of this year. In January the growth reached 2,4 %, and in February – 15,2 %. Do you think it means that the crisis is over in our country?
– Even though there was economic growth during the first two months of this year, there is no reason to get happy because these months are the period when the economy is sleeping. Currently there are positive tendencies in the world economy, including in Russia as well, but these tendencies cannot have positive influence on the Armenian economy yet. During this year the condition of the Armenian economy will still be bad. There will not be new factors to help the situation and some of the factors resulting in the crisis will still continue. I don’t think there will be slump of the economy like we had last year, but the results will still continue to exist. The economic slump is slower now but the reason is the fact that we are getting closer to the bottom of the hole.
– The Armenian National Congress has published a concept named “A hundred steps toward economic reform” for the purpose of recovering the economy. However this project was not accepted by the authorities and even there was no reaction other than some critics.
– If by saying government you mean the officials who have got used to the corruption, who are managing the country’s economy and are the decision-makers in politics and economy, I understand that they don’t want to change anything. But let’s be real. Do we have to suffer because of a couple of corrupt officials? Don’t normal people deserve a right to live normally in this country? There are many problems that we should fight; and first of all we should overcome the system malformation, which even kills the hope of people. Armenia should develop, our people deserve a good living, and the formula leading to such prosperity should be looked for and found through public discussions and collective work.
– Maybe the reason of the malformation of the economic system is the fact that more than the half of the parliament are represented by business owners and they prefer their own business interests rather than the interests of the state.
– I think that the political powers, which have taken the role of the government in the country, have to understand that they are responsible both for the state policy of the country and the economic slump as well. Otherwise it turns out that the decision-makers in the country are people who even don’t know what is written in the Constitution and who can become MP. They can put more pressure on the society, organize new March 1, but all these things have not future and eventually one day they will not be able to resist anymore because there isn’t a sustainable and well-grounded economic policy.
– Do you think that the economic development provisions in the concept developed by the ANC may be discussed and accepted by parliamentary powers?
– I don’t think so because this parliament is not able and even does not want to do that. Who is in the parliament? Which of the parliamentary powers will develop this issue for discussion? If there were political powers, which would at least criticize the projects of the parliament, there would not be so many shameful things. Have you forgotten that in the end of 2008 they adopted a budget envisaging 9% growth but the year was closed with 15% economic slump? Last year the government changed the quality of the projects, platforms and the budget, the social and economic policies. No one in the parliament said that it was their duty and they had to discuss the issue and decide what the government was responsible for. It is possible only in the country where the government lacks responsibility and accountability that the government makes decisions without the participation of the legislative body. I believe there are people in the government who will not only read the text of the draft, but will also use these recommendations in their policy, but they will never openly say that they have done this because they consider the opposition as the enemy of the country. Thus, they don’t want to say that the opposition is doing the right thing.
– In consideration of the social and political tense environment in the country, do you think the situation may become more critical as a result of the growth of the prices of gas and a number of other products after April 1?
– The rates will not be worse but the living standards will become worse. This year there will be positive tendencies in the economy but the overall situation will not become better. I also agree with the opinion that the social tension will grow as a result of the expected inflation. The inflation will first of all affect the budgets of people with small incomes.
– The current policy of the Central Bank has confused especially the business circles. As a result of the rapid changes of the exchange rates of dollar and dram people don’t trust the national currency anymore, and they even take their foreign currency out of the country. What will be the future of this process?
– It will result in a situation that we are dealing with now. We have warned the central bank of the possible dangers; I have addressed messages as well. The central bank is to implement a certain policy but not say one thing and do another thing. As long as the government is implementing such policy there will be shocks in the market. The national currency will continue falling. People will not trust the national currency, and people will take out their money from the country, which is observed now too. They are saying that they are implementing a policy of floating rates, but meanwhile are selling reserves.
– Maybe it is a reason of the fact that the Central Bank is not free in implementing a monetary policy and is doing all what they are told to do.
– Yes, the Central bank has lost its independence. It has turned into an institution, which serves as a tool to solve problems and close the gaps. It is the reason why the main axis of the policy implemented by the central bank has become the foreign currency interventions.
– May such interventions result in the consumption of the national resources?
– Besides consuming seven-eight hundred million dollars, we also took on a very heavy load last year. In two-three years we will have to pay huge money to cover the foreign debt. The situation is also difficult due to the fact that we are a country, which imports too much and exports too little. The gap of the external trade is either too big or is equal to our reserves.
– How will it affect the ordinary citizen?
– The living conditions will become worse. The wealth we create will not be targeted at the well-being of our children but at covering the foreign debt. The priority issue now is the change of the system. The powers that have occupied the government should understand that they are leading the country through a bad path. Year by year we are moving back. 90% of the society is disappointed and is thinking of leaving the country. The president and political powers of the country should think about that. Otherwise they may pretend they are doing and organize another march 1 to keep the power.
– What do you think about the economic development rate of this year?
– If they don’t paint numbers and rates hardly there may be economic growth. I am for the same prediction of last year, when I said that we would close the year with 1-2% economic slump, and I don’t have more grounds for other predictions yet.