– There are different opinions about the elections in Ukraine, and people believe with the victory of Yanukovich Russia won the Western powers in Ukraine. Others believe the West does not attach much importance to revolutions as a tool of taking the power, and the situation in Ukraine proves this opinion. As you know the current political situation in Ukraine well, we wander what you think about the fact that as a result of the election the winner is not the incumbent prime minister but the former PM.
– It is worth mentioning that the elections in Ukraine were real elections. It is the second time in that country that the opposition wins the elections. Generally this country is faced with a dilemma again. It is not a coincidence. In fact Ukraine consists of two state powers – the Western and Eastern powers. I don’t know whether the West or East may win this rival, but it is an established fact that even in the East the Ukrainians are more pro-European. They want to become a member of the European family and have a democratic country. Russia cannot say that Yanukovich’s victory is their victory. If Timoshenko was the one to win the elections, Russia would back her too. The problem is that Yanukovich can be stricter to Russia during the time as Lukashenko did. The Russians understand it pretty well that he is a strong person and can unite the entire country in his hands. The good thing is that in that country there are democratic principles, opinion of the society and democratic elections. The Ukrainians are more advanced than our country.
– There is an opinion that the example of Ukraine shows that the US is not interested in revolutions any more. It concerns Armenia as well.
– No, it’s not like that. I believe the European Union does not want to expand to the East, otherwise they would support the former president of Ukraine. His work was not effective either. Armenia has to solve its problems now. Due to the economic crisis the West is focused on solving its problems. Now Obama is looking for a reason to go out of Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not a message to the Armenian opposition that the West will not support us because it has never supported us either. I have always said that a stimulus of the events of March 1, 2008, was the head of the OSCE/ODIHR mission, Ambassador Gert Arens, who made a foolish statement just following the elections and allegedly said that the presidential elections had been done normally. After that the authorities got a green light and decided that they could do whatever they wanted. Later we had an opportunity to ask him what he had done because if they did not do it Kocharyan would not be so brave to do the killings, in answer to which he said he could do nothing as there were many Russians in the group.
– What does it mean?
– It means that the Russians allegedly don’t want to see the shortcomings of elections. The Western observers were not with the opposition during the elections. We did not bag to be with us either. I am more interested in the inner affairs of Armenia. The Armenian authorities should be concerned of the drastic change in the western policy toward Ukraine. Tomorrow the Armenian authorities will stay alone against Turkey and Azerbaijan. Instead of thinking of it they are looking for enemies in the opposition and inner movements. In order to be able to resist the external challenges we should be strong from inside. In order to be united there should be alternatives of choice everywhere in the country; in the economy, politics and elections. As for the west, if they have their interests they will do it and interfere.
– Do you mean that the Armenian authorities enjoyed the support of the West for the clampdown during and after the elections?
– Yes, but later they changed their mind. I will believe that the West is honest if they judge the head of the monitoring mission. The problem is that they changed their final report later. It was a play. I am saying it one more time, both Kocharyan and Ambassador Arens should be criminally persecuted.
– You said that the Ukrainian people tend to democracy and European family. Does it mean that our people don’t want democracy if there is no democracy in Armenia?
– No, we are a small country. For example, Ukraine’s armed forces are bigger by 2,5 times than the Armenian forces in case when their country is bigger by 22 times than our country. It is enough to have a division of 5-10 thousand loyal army people not to let anything happen. Certainly we have created a strong army and we had objective reasons for that, but it is used against the people and during elections they back the authorities. In the reality our people are brave and very loyal to democracy.
– What problems is the West trying to solve in Armenia and what is Armenia’s importance for the West?
– Currently the West is working with the authorities and from time to time they want to show support to the opposition. Generally they pursue their interests to resolve the conflict of Karabakh, get an agreement to open the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azeri border and build the future pipelines through Armenia’s but not Georgia’s territory. There are two obstacles for that: the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azeri problems and the presence of the Russian military forces. It is against the Russian policy too because they want to have army forces in our country. Plus, the Russians are also working with the Turkish and Azeri parties as well. As a result Armenia is offering services but does not get the benefits expected from such services. Russia shows that agrees with the policy of the West, but the solution proposed by the West is out of our interests. It means that some territories are to be given, the conflict of Karabakh may be resolved in favor of Azerbaijan or sovereignty in the territory of Azerbaijan, which hardly may ever come true because we will not agree with that. We are lucky that neither the Turkish nor the Azeri diplomats know what diplomacy is. For example, if they knew what diplomacy is they would not criticize the Armenian Constitutional Court’s ruling. They would benefit from it. It was an emotional approach because if they tried to wait a little bit Armenia would either be faced with a problem, would sign it or would cancel immediately. In this case the West would change its policy rapidly and be against Armenia.
– There is an opinion that Russia does not want to resolve the issues of Karabakh and Armenian-Turkish relations because as a result it will have to take the army forces out of Armenia and it will weaken Russia’s presence in Caucasus.
– Russia has this problem. But there is an issue that if Russia comes to an agreement with Azerbaijan concerning transit export of gas and oil, it may be interested in resolving the issues. Now the Turkish and Russian parties are getting closer. It is Turkey’s luck that the Russian southern pipeline and Nabucco will pass through its territory. Turkey has achieved the goal and two geopolitically contradicting important institutions will pass through its territory. And in both cases the parties appreciate Turkey’s role.
– Do you think that Russia may give up on Armenia because of the interests with these countries?
– I don’t think Russia may give up on Armenia without reason, but I believe that if Armenia has a conflict with the neighbors Russia will not provide economic or military support. It does not have to support.
– Russia uses the energetic resources to press on Europe. Huge pipelines will pass through Turkey’s territory. Is it possible that as a result of the mentioned projects implementation Turkey may become a bigger threat for Armenia?
– Of curse. Turkey will use its privileges. It will affect the Armenian-Russian relations as well. Russia will become more vulnerable from Turkey, but Turkey will not. Russia will have to accept a part of those limitations.
– The Central Bank forecasts that this year the economy will grow by 0,5-2%. It is almost the same rate as the forecast in the budget of 2010. Do you think such development is possible?
– They have no methodologies to calculate or make forecasts. They don’t calculate the consuming line. There is no professional forecast. They just said it. Do you know why they said 0,5-2%? Because if this growth is not achieved they will tell the head of statistics to write this figure. We are going to publish the ANC’s program on what should be done. I don’t see that they are doing any of those steps. How can the economy grow if the polarization is growing? There may be growth if any of the existing monopolies or oligarchic clans meets bankruptcy or stops existing. One should be forced out so that others can occupy this place. The existing mechanism excludes this possibility. There is no change of elite, thus there is no economic growth either. There can be growth if the economic growth is diversified. There is no export. In case of absence of export the growth should be diversified. It is not done in Armenia either. Now they can make other calculations and get more 2% than in 2009. By the way, even these 2% are not so important because it will be a very small rate compared to the 12% of 2008. The real growth was 22% in 2009, and according to dollar calculation it was 32%. The GDP was cut down from 11,9 billion to 8,7 billion.