– On Monday the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia met in Sochi to discuss the issue of Karabakh. As usual the presidents have agreed to continue the negotiations. It is more than 16 years that the parties are negotiating to resolve the conflict but the conflict is still pending. Do you think there is no improvement in the process unlike the assurances of the presidents?
– I don’t think the approaches of Armenia, Azerbaijan or Karabakh may have changed during these 16 years. It is 16 years that the Azeri side does not agree with the compromises Armenia offers, and the vice versa. The regional context does not inspire hope either that the external powers may be interested in the issue much to the extent of pressing on the parties to reach an agreement.
– What is the logic of these meetings?
– I think the best logic is that it is better to negotiate than fight.
– Even though the parties appreciate the work of the OSCE Minsk Group, as you said the participation of external powers hardly may result in serious changes. Don’t you think that time may come and the work of the OSCE MG may be considered ineffective? Especially in consideration of the fact that the frequency of the trilateral meetings initiated by the Russian president is growing.
– I don’t think so because besides the main mission the Minsk Group has more important geopolitical role. The MG, represented by powerful countries such as the US, France (EU) and Russia, are trying to control the process of the conflict settlement on the one hand, and not to let the parties enter into a new war on the other hand. The MG is also the tool of these external powers to reach its political goals in the region.
– You said that the MG keeps the parties from a war, but the president of Azerbaijan does not miss a single opportunity to make militant statements and threaten.
– It is natural because the president of Azerbaijan is saying what he has to say. Azerbaijan has lost the war. Azerbaijan understands that nobody, neither the negotiation parties nor the international community, sees the future of Karabakh in Azerbaijan. There may be provisions on returning or not returning lands in the negotiation process, but no one from Armenia or even the West imagines that former soviet land Karabakh may ever be a part of Azerbaijan. The Azeri people understand that in the existing environment there is no other way to get Karabakh. They also understand that the situation in the region and military balance will not let Azerbaijan have a fast victory. The president of Azerbaijan will continue making such statements but hardly anyone may expect that Azerbaijan may start military actions in the existing situation.
– After the meeting in Sochi almost all political powers expressed contradicting opinions. Specifically, ANC coordinator Levon Zurabyan says currently there is a huge pressure on Armenia to sign documents concerning the settlement of Karabakh conflict, and in the current situation Armenia does not enjoy Russia’s support, thus the Armenian government is trying to activate Iran to delay the settlement. The visit of the Armenian second president to Iran can be discussed in this context.
– As for the change in the Russian policy and the factor of Iran, I don’t think Russia’s policy toward Armenia has changed. It is proven by the announcements of the Russian leaders. Furthermore, if you have a closer look at the Azeri media, you will have the vice impression, especially after the meeting in Sochi. Concerning Kocharyan’s visit to Iran, I have information from the state structures that the second president’s visit was a planned visit and he was invited and this was his 2nd or 3rd visit to Iran since the office. On the other hand, even if Kocharyan stays far from politics, he is a powerful person and hardly may have discussed cultural issues at the meeting with the Iranian president. They discussed geopolitical issues. I don’t think as a result of that meeting the policy of Iran toward Armenia has changed, or Armenia did not have any expectations from other countries and had to knock at Iran’s door as a last hope. Iran is an important ally for Armenia but does not play a primary important role in the process of Karabakh conflict settlement and Armenia’s issues. Iran is a very important partner for Armenia in terms of energetic and other related cooperation issues, but not more.
– Don’t you think the visits of the foreign affairs ministers of Iran and Russia to Armenia may be connected with this context?
– These were planned official visits. However the state institutions and other news agencies did not cover this issue in a duly manner. People think these visits are connected with the fast processes, but as far as I know even the Georgian president’s visit was planned.
– The conflict of Karabakh does not seem to be solved in the near future. It seems the Armenian-Turkish relations are in a deadlock too because Turkey develops preconditions concerning the conflict of Karabakh for raising the blockade. It turns out that the Armenian-Turkish relations may be sent to cart for a long time too.
– It is Turkey’s goal to connect the relations with Armenia with the issue of Karabakh. There is no word about it in the protocols signed between Armenia and Turkey. However Turkey may use it to justify the failure of the aoption process. It is clear that Armenia will never sacrifice Karabakh in order to develop relations with Turkey. Thus, if Turkey tries to wait for the settlement of Karabakh conflict, the fence-meding process will appear in a deadlock. From the point of view of infrustructures and external access it is bad for Armenia, but if it happens Turkey will have to turn to the “April diplomacy” again. It means that in this case the issue of the Armenian genocide will be more actively pushed forward by Turkey and the EU. It does not mean that they like Armenia so much that will make such decision, but it means that it is a good opportunity for them to press on Turkey. Turkey has a very interesting and sometimes cloudy diplomacy. In this context it is not excluded that eventually Turkey will not give up on the idea of developing relations with Armenia.
– There are different conflicts in the world, even conflicts that don’t have any solution which would satisfy the parties involved. The issue of Karabakh is one of such conflicts.
– There is no ideal solution to satisfy the parties of the conflict. I can’t find an example that such ethno-political conflicts were solved through compromises in the past 50 years. Such conflicts were solved with the victory of one of the parties (like Kosovo did). In the former Yugoslavia the so-called metropolitan country could fully deport the Serbian enclave that announced self-sovereignty. We can remember what Georgia was trying to do in 2008 or Azerbaijan in Karabakh. In both cases one of the parties fully lost. There is another solution too, like long-term freezing of conflicts, for example like India and Pakistan did with Kashmir. I think the conflict of Karabakh will not be resolved in the near future either.
– Who will benefit from the time if the issue is frozen?
– I think time works for us, of course if the Armenian and Karabakhi parties are ready to use this time for their interests. The factor of the time is important for the international community too as the international community gets used to the situation in Karabakh as well.
– Did you like the recent publications in the media, according to which the Russian president Medvedev has Armenian origin?
– Tell you frankly I am skeptical about that information. The source of that information is very suspicious. I don’t know whether it is true or no. But if there is one more Armenian in the world it is better than worse.