The predictions of the government, according to which we will close down 2009 with 15% economic slump, seem to come true. According to the latest publication of the figures of the National Statistics Service of Armenia Armenia’s economic recession in January-November of 2009 totaled 16% compared to the same period of the last year. Yesterday the National Statistics Service of Armenia (NSS) released its preliminary macro-economic figures relating to the current social-economic conditions in the country. And as the next conclusive report of 2009 is going to be released in 2010 the last one includes only the last 11 months of 2009. Thus as it was mentioned, Armenia’s economic recession in January-November of 2009 totaled 16% with GDP reaching 2 786 682 AMD. This last figure is only 84% of the last year’s index. Comparing with the 18 percent decline of the first 9 months, 16 percent during 11 months is a tangible progress which registered the government having worked during these months. Let’s remember that last month a fall of 17.5% was reported in the country. By wrapping the dynamics of the figures of the last year let us mention that the lowest figure was registered in June-July when the official statistics registered 18.5% recession. We may say that this was the peak of the crisis for Armenia because after that the recession rates started to lower. The improvement of the figures was almost imperceptible in the beginning – only 0.1%. For January-August the NSS registered 18.4% recession; for January-September 18.3%. After that the rates of recession were lowered more as predicted by Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. But the comparative improvement of the index doesn’t mean that after the first 9 months of 2009 the economy was activated. As we have previously mentioned the reduction of the rates of recession is connected with the fact that the macroeconomic indices of 2008 were already deteriorated. For example, compared to October in November the Gross Domestic Product of the last year was reduced by over 30% by amounting to 280.3 billion AMD. It is natural that in the background of this slump the GDP of the current year in November should have showed a positive motive of indices (320.3 billion AMD). As of separate spheres then again slump was registered in all domains. At first glance, this indicator, compared with previous months, seems positive, but a closer look suggests that these indicators have already dropped from the rise in the economy in the last months of the previous year. In particular, looking at annual cut-backs, the largest decline, as in previous months, has been registered in the construction industry, at 38.4%; while a decline of 9.9% was evident in the industrial sector compared with last year’s 11.4%. Retail trade turnover in Armenia grew 0.5% in Jan-Nov 2009, compared with the same period a year before, and reached AMD 897.9 billion. In November, compared with October, retail trade turnover reduced 0.4%. According to the statistical report, paid services totaled AMD 669.2 billion after reducing 2.5% over the period between January and November 2009 and shrank 3.7% in November, compared with October. Compared to January-November of the last year the foreign trade declined by 28.5% and amounted to 3 billion 570 million USD. During the reporting period the exportation declined by 37.4% by amounting to 624 million USD. A decline of 28.5% has been registered in annual cuts in foreign trade with imports having registered a decline of 26.3% and exports – 37.4%. The volumes of importation were cut by 26.3% by amounting to 2 billion 946 million USD. The negative balance of the foreign trade amounts to 322 million USD, which is 30% of the GDP. According to the statistical report, paid services totaled AMD 669.2 billion after reducing 2.5% over the period between January and November 2009 and shrank 3.7% in November, compared with October. The interesting thing is that in the background of the reduction of exportation and importation rates the official statistics registered 0.5% increase of retail trade. We may assume that in this matter the bonuses of receipt lottery and similar mechanisms played their role. In the conditions of a 16% economic slump the fact that the retail trade rates remained unchanged will be presented as growth of fight against black economy. The number of officially registered unemployed as of late November is 82.900, which is by 11.6% more compared to the last year. In January-November 2009 average monthly salary made 98.992 drams which was increased by 11.3% compared with the same period of 2008. Salaries in budget organizations was 82.125 drams which is by 16.4% more than the level of January-November 2008 and compared with October 2009 its level increased by 1.4% in November 2009. In non-budget organizations average monthly salary was 123.273 drams which is by 7.5% more than the level of January-November 2008. Compared with October, in November 2009 this indicator was reduced by 2%. In November compared with October 2009 total level of average monthly nominal salary was reduced by 0.8%. Regardless of anything, this year will remain the saddest in the modern history of Armenia. We will close down the year with a dual-digit economic recession. As of the next year predictions regarding the 1.2% economic growth, then it seems quite possible because of a simple reason – the indices of the current year are very low. It means that the next year will be compared with 2009 and in fact 1.2% is too little of growth to exhilarate about. At the end let us add that these are only indices and only official. But the real life differs very much from indices, especially the official ones and especially in Armenia.
