– What do you think about the activation in the processes of Armenia-Turkey relations and Karabakh conflict settlement?
– The processes of Armenia-Turkey relations and Karabakh conflict settlement were activated not last week but following the Russian-Georgian war in August. As I have said before, it is a direct result of separation of spheres of influence in the region. As a result of the war, when Georgia fully fell under the western influence, the US got another opportunity to attract another country from the region. As it happened to Georgia, they had to activate a vulnerable issue either for Azerbaijan or Armenia to reach the mentioned goal. Historically there were two issues which would serve for this goal, and these issues are the Armenia-Turkey relations and the conflict of Karabakh. Thus the situation was adequate and the US did not hesitate to use that opportunity. As both of these issues relate to development of relations, Russia cannot openly prevent these processes. Accordingly, in order not to let reallocation of influence zones in the region Russia is attentively following the processes and will chose a convenient moment to direct these processes in its direction. This is the reason why Moscow activated and developed closer relations with Turkey and is more attentive to Azerbaijan now. Russia and the US don’t care about the achievements or losses of Turkey, Armenia or Azerbaijan, but they are interested in the opportunities resulted from the process to increase their influence. It is up to these countries to think of their achievements or losses. As for the recent developments, it is better to start speaking of this not from the visit of Erdogan but from the OSCE council of ministers’ meeting in Athens. Even though at that time the meeting of the Armenian ad Azeri foreign ministers did not bring any significant results and after the co-chairmen joined them there was a statement which did not observe too much change, Edward Nalbandyan announced that there had been a great improvement in the talks as by signing the statement Mamediarov recognized Karabakh’s right for self-determination. Of course he had forgotten not only the fact that the mentioned announcement was not a negotiation document and was as important as the militant announcement of the Azeri president, but also the fact that starting from Aliyev and ending up with all officials of Azerbaijan everyone has recognized that right of Karabakh, but limited with autonomy. On the next day Mamediarov reminded his colleague about this. The problem is that the Armenian FM Edward Nalbandyan does not understand the right of self-determination well either because by announcing that Karabakh will join the negotiation after signing a framework agreement he is abusing Karabakh’s right for self-determination. People and officials with such merits and knowledge cannot succeed in making Azerbaijan respect Karabakh’s right for self-determination. Even more, he is speaking of the announcement of the “Five” as a large achievement in fact it does not have so much importance. Later this issue was misused in Armenia, when the Congress announced that by applying the principles of territorial integrity and self-determination right in parallel at the same time Armenia for the first time gives consent to settle the conflict according to the principle of territorial integrity. It was a new thing in the policies of both the government and the opposition as both of them, especially the core opposition Armenian National Congress, have been trying not to misuse the conflict issue. Definitely it is the most remarkable development but they don’t pay attention to it yet. Erdogan’s visit to the US is noteworthy due to two reasons. It proves one more time that the announcements of the Armenian authorities are not serious as they have been assuring that Obama would not receive him until the protocols were ratified. Even though Armenia did not pay a due attention to Obama’s announcement, it is noteworthy because Obama announced that the relations between Turkey and the US had developed from strategic partnership to consistent cooperation. Clinton has also said that Turkey is one of the seven most important allies of the US. These announcements point out to concrete cooperation, and hardly may the call of Clinton to the Armenian president change anything. It became clear after the recent press conference, when they informed that the conduct of Turkey after the ratification of the protocols would be unpredictable for the Armenian government. The threats to Turkey that Armenia will revise the laws on international agreements if Turkey delays the ratification cannot change anything. Turkey is using every opportunity with maximum effectiveness, and Armenia with maximum losses.
– Do you think Turkey may ratify the protocols if there are no significant improvements in the process of Karabakh conflict settlement?
– Turkey has got maximum benefits from every phase and opportunity of developing relations with Armenia. In difference with Armenia they don’t do anything to do a favor the West or their people, and in fact these things are nothing compared to the benefits they received by maneuvering. The issue, which brought up Turkey after the signing of the protocols accompanied with Erdogan’s statement made right 2 hours that, is directly linked to the project of Madrid principles, according to the first provision of which “the neighboring territories of the NKR should be returned to the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan.” Turkey is trying to receive guarantees so that this comes true no matter what. It is interesting that according to foreign experts this issue may also be resolved with a secret agreement. Specifically, in the opinion of a professor from Georgetown University, director of the Eurasia Strategic Project K. Welt, if there is no publicized solution then the Turkish Parliament will ratify the protocols only in the conditions of a covert agreement. At the first sight it may seem that Armenia will never get to such a secret agreement around an issue of key importance to Armenia. However, we should forget the extremely dangerous prerequisite registered during the process of normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations. In April they made a statement about signing a road map but it was publicized over four months later. Moreover, although the government was denying that the road map implies that genocide subcommittee should be formed but after its publication it was revealed that this is true. This fact as well as the immediate and irrefutable fulfillment of the demands of the United States on part of the Armenian authorities makes us assume that the ratification of the protocols would mean that Turkey has received the necessary guarantees either in an overt or covert manner. Furthermore, the developments of the last 1.5 years show that even Turkey refuses to ratify those and decides to deflect from the process its achievements will not essentially belittle.
– Will the Armenian government be able to fail the process of opening the Armenian-Turkish border if the price of the ratification of the protocols would be the removal of the Armenian troops and signing to the final document?
– During his last press conference with the president of Latvia Serzh Sargsyan stated that Armenia will comply with its international obligations and will ratify the protocols on Armenia and Turkey. This is evidence that the state positions are occupied at an amateur level. If we had professional experts in the relevant structures of the state the president would be informed that the ratification of the protocols doesn’t have to do anything with abiding with international obligations. Moreover, if in some country the parliament doesn’t ratify a document there can be nothing tragic about that. This is very constitutional and legal behavior on part of the parliament. Thus, the executive power should take into account the objections of the legislative branch of power and continue working in order to prepare a document, which would imply exclude mistakes from the previous document. Therefore, Armenia doesn’t have to worry that it may fail anything. All the government has to do is let the MPs of the parliament of Armenia vote the way they wish and whatever they find is right for the country. Even if they don’t constrain Armenia to go to any compromise the current protocols with the text they imply will only give losses to Armenia. All the substantiated objections, which were submitted by the experts, remained unanswered. Even the provision regarding the territorial integrity is not taken into account and a proper response is not prepared for that. Even currently there is this corridor of trade circulation of Turkish goods through the Armenian-Georgian border, which is equally available for Armenian and Turkish businessmen. Through that a large volume of trade stuff is imported and exported and mainly Turkish goods not Armenian. Is there anyone, who believes that this balance or proportion will be altered even after the defeat of the blockade?
– Do you see any linkage between the issue of normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations, the NKR conflict resolution and loans provided by international financial organizations?
– Indeed there is linkage because the attainment of loans is a priority policy on part of our country. The economy of Armenia has been through quite serious change during the recent years. And I don’t mean the global economic crisis or latter’s consequences. Armenia already has its “own” crisis, which is in the shadow of the global one. The law on budgetary system has been radically altered; the most part of the contents and articles of the law on state budget 2010 essentially differ from the analogous laws of the previous years. As a matter of fact, during one year the parliament got deprived of the influence and power of forming state budgets and implementation mechanisms. This is a rough violation of the constitution of the country, by which one of the main principles of the constitution – checks and balances, is being ignored. The second dangerous change of the budgetary policy is the drastic and abrupt proliferation of the foreign debt – about three times. Armenia had a figure like that 10 years ago. But this is not all either. The received foreign loan in the amount of 1 billion USD is not going to be enough to quell the insatiable thirst of receiving credits. We will need about the same about the same amount for the next, thus even more increasing our foreign debt. Under these circumstances, it is simply hypocrisy to announce that the social expenditures were not cut in the budget. Making expenses at the expense of the debt can never be anything to brag about neither for individuals, nor for states. And others are trying to apply some other tricks by mentioning that there are EU countries, the proportion of the foreign debt/GDP of which is higher than of Armenia. They probably don’t know that that figure foreign debt/GDP proportion is applicable for countries, which have a normal tax collection system. In countries such as Armenia, where taxes/GDP ratio is extremely low, a criterion is applied, which considers the rates of tax collection because loans are so dangerous when there is low tax collection in the country. The catastrophic plight of exportation rates is another figure of economic plummet in the country. It is evident that in the condition of heavy economic crisis can resist the foreign challenges with great difficulties. Moreover, internal tensions also greatly decrease the reserves of withstanding such pressures and diminish the moral qualities necessary for that. The next year is going to be tougher for Armenia in all aspects including the foreign policy aspect. It is obvious that the wide-spread absence of knowledge and skills in the country, the perfunctory approaches applied during the resolution of key issues for the country and the primitive level of trade are starting to show their crops.