What can be the effect of opening the border of Armenia and Turkey on the domestic political life of Armenia? May it contribute to the democratic processes in the country? Different experts have different opinions about these issues.
Edward Sandoyan, doctor and professor of economics, believes the opening of the borders and development of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey will support the development of democratic values in Armenia. “I view the possibility of opening the border of Armenia and Turkey not only from the point of view of developing relations, but I also believe that raising the blockade will give an opportunity to develop new economic relations and ties first of all with Europe. Thus, the opening of the border may be considered as a transit way to the external world. It must have an influence on the processes in the society and country. It is impossible to make a revolution in Armenia due to two reasons. First, we have a Diaspora and about 30-35% of the society has stabile sources of incomes from their relatives overseas. Certainly this number may change in the future but I don’t think it may decrease in the near future. Such people who are able to provide the minimum living usually don’t become extreme people to change something. They have not reached the level to the extent of being capable to go out to streets and start destructive movements. Second, our economy is monopolized, the electorate is “monopolized” as well. If we calculate the number of people and families employed by such oligarchs, we will add another 30% of the above mentioned people. In addition, if we add the number of state employees and budget system, this number will reach about 70-75%. It means that the extreme revolutionary mass will be about 25% of the society. And you can’t gather all these people, the 25%, in one place at the same time,” said Edward Sandoyan. He believes this proportion of the electorate will change as a result of opening the borders and the number of people tending to change will increase. “Why is our electorate considered to be so-called low quality electorate? The problem is the fact that our electorate is highly depending on officials, rich people, power structures; ones are afraid to lose their jobs and others are afraid for their children. This appearance is characteristic to a feudalistic society. The characteristic factor of this society is the fact that the capacity of people employed by the medium business sector is very small. These people are the “best quality” people for any sate and society, they have a good quality as an electorate as well because these are the people who are independent and have their own opinion. The political powers have to find other motivations and messages for people when they deal with such electorate with good quality. As a result of opening the Armenia-Turkey border the number of such people will increase and the small and medium business sectors will develop as well,” assures Edward Sandoyan. He believes the import of under-nationalistic corporations will bring a solid contribution to the growth and development of high quality electorate and civic society in general. “When about 20-30 big corporations come to this market, it will generate demand for labor. It will result in competition in the education sector as well. Now in our society good quality education does not enjoy a high demand. It is better to have good relatives or party contacts than good education. If there are corporations, the vacancies, the requirements and payments are different too. In a word, the staff and employees of such companies will have other requirements and principles other than those of the current oligarchic system. It will have an influence on elections too as people will become more independent in their decisions,” said the former minister.
Former president of the Central Bank Bagrat Asatryan does not agree with the point that the development of normal relations between Armenia and Turkey will have a positive influence itself on democracy and the domestic policy in Armenia. He believes the opening of the border will not create the necessary conditions for the growth of small and medium business sectors. The former CB president believes this problem may be solved only if the authorities become “smarter”. Bagrat Asatryan believes if the authorities don’t become “smarter”, notwithstanding whether the border will be open Armenia may not be attractive for big companies. “We should realize that currently Armenia has become a toy in the hand of oligarchs and weakened because of corruption and monopolies, and the authorities are not even trying to protect it. The economy is in worse conditions. If the environment does not change here, Armenia will not be an attractive market for Turkish major investors anyway to come and invest in big businesses in our market even if the border is open. I believe this process may not be decisive but will bring to some result anyway. And even if they come here, they will be faced with the stupidity of the corrupt oligarchs and officials who have declared themselves as the owners of the country and will be disappointed and will go back,” says Bagrat Asatryan.
Concerning this point Edward Sandoyan says that any positive actions on part of the authorities will have less effect now than if these were done after opening the borders. “At least we have an experience of ten years that more or less positive actions on part of the authorities have not resulted in a positive change because of close borders,” says E.Sandoyan.
Expert of Eastern Sciences Davit Hovhannisyan thinks generally the opening of the border will have a positive effect on our society, political reality if the panel of historians envisaged by the protocols fails to be established. “If this commission is established anyway and discusses the issue of the Genocide, it will have a very bad impact on Armenians and the Diaspora. If pathetically we assume that it does not happen, certainly it will have a positive result on the internal civic, political and economic life of Armenia,” said D.Hovhannisyan. He believes that open borders will improve the conditions of developing small and medium businesses too. “The alternative of communications resulted from opening the borders will enable the development of different social contacts and free development of small and medium businesses. The formation and development of this sector of the society is very important in the political sector. The more a society is open, the more opportunities it has for democratic development,” said D.Hovhannisyan.