On November 22 in Munich city of Germany the 6th meeting of the year of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev took place. The meeting lasted 4 hours and proceeded in a broad format.
At the beginning of the meeting the foreign affairs ministers of the two countries also participated. The meeting started in an extended format with the participation of the foreign ministers of the two countries, OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and personal representative of the OSCE Acting chairperson Andrzej Kasprzyk. Afterward the two presidents continued the negotiations face-to-face after which again an extended discussion took place. The discussion over peaceful and comprehensive regulation of Karabakh conflict lasted for four hours. The foreign ministers of the two countries were assigned to continue the activity with the support of the co-chairs toward peaceful settlement of the conflict based on Madrid principles. The Munich meeting proceeded in the background of the militaristic statements of Ilham Aliyev made prior to the meeting. Aliyev raised the stakes ahead of the Munich talks, saying that their failure to produce results would leave Azerbaijan with no choice but to try to solve the conflict by force. At a briefing after the meeting the co-chairs assessed the meeting as constructive and pointed out that Karabakh conflict has no military solution and there is no alternative to the negotiations process. There has been awhile since the co-chairs have last spoken about a constructive meeting between the two presidents. "Today’s meeting was particularly long-lasting as thorough, very constructive negotiations took place between the two presidents about all the elements over which there is no agreement yet. These discussions gave the presidents an opportunity to determine the right elements of the progress. Today’s negotiations gave an opportunity to also determine those difficult issues which have not been solved yet," the French co-chairman of the Minsk Group Bernard Fassier said. "A very important progress has been registered in the negotiations. At the same time we disclosed a certain difficulty," added Fassier. If we believe in the words of the co-chairmen then in the upcoming weeks they have a lot of work to do. But they didn’t reveal the contents of the negotiations by leaving this responsibility to the presidents of the two countries. We will see in future what the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will deliver to their societies. Especially Aliyev should express a certain standpoint regarding the Munich negotiations after his threat on resuming the war. By the way, in Armenia, the international community was more intensively focused on the statement of Aliyev than the war itself. Even the co-chairs have spoken about the threat of Aliyev to start a war. "War cannot be an alternative in any case. We have told the presidents in a strong and clear way that in Moscow, Paris and Washington, our governments are of the opinion that war is not an alternative as it cannot ensure a solution," Fassier said. According to him, the two presidents assigned the mediators to solve those difficult issues. At the same time in response to the question about the most important issue over which a progress has been registered, Fassier said that they have arrangement not to publicize the details of the negotiations. "It must be done by the presidents, but we agreed that in today’s negotiations an important progress has been registered." Noting that the Munich negotiations were the sixth during this year, B. Fassier considered that fact an unprecedented one in the whole history of these negotiations, adding that it witnesses the dynamics and seriousness of the negotiations. Russian co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov noted that this or that statement may be agreed with the circumstances of inner-political life. "We have told the presidents that during this sensitive period of negotiations, it would be better to avoid voicing extreme accusations against each other especially about the possibility of military solution," he said, expressing hope that the parties will take into consideration this position of the co-chairing countries. In Armenia they have almost the same opinion. “For the moment the belligerent statement of the president of Azerbaijan was only a blackmail addressed to the parties and co-chairmen before the launch of negotiations. I relate more seriously to another statement of Aliyev, where there were certain concerns about the issues related to populating the liberated territories. I think that at this moment Azerbaijan is not going to start a war. It is just winning time and I think the status quo is on their behalf,” says the head of the bureau of the Heritage party Armen Martirosyan. As of the Munich meeting or the negotiations around the NKR conflict resolution then in the words of the MP a written document will be prepared much later when the Armenia-Turkey protocols will be already ratified and “digested.” It is when the border will be open and the society will be a little calm. “If they at this moment bring up the issue of the NKR then the government will stand no chance to maintain the power any more. Therefore, I strongly believe that at this phase they will come up with serious verbal agreement and after the ratification of the mentioned protocols they will get to the implementation of their verbal promises. I don’t exclude that our government may yield at some point and rush up the process of the NKR conflict resolution but there is little possibility for that,” says the MP. The political officer of the ARF Hay Dat bureau Kiro Manoyan stated that Aliyev’s statements are not essential but regular ones, which Aliyev often makes. “The Armenian side should have long ago responded adequately to those. I’d be glad if the president of Armenia during the 4-hour meeting allotted the 2 hours to the expediency of continuation of negotiations as a response to the belligerent statements of the Azerbaijani president,” said Manoyan. Samvel Farmanyan, the spokesman of the RA president said the following as a response to Aliyev’s statement, “The increase of tension over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict of course is the most undesirable result. It will be the most undesirable reality for Karabakh, Armenia and the whole region. But the Republic of Armenia cannot be indifferent toward the fate of Nagorno Karabakh people and that is why the President of Armenia and other officials have many times stated that we are responsible for the security of the people of Nagorno Karabakh. There are adopted ways in the world: in case of such developments, for instance, the Republic of Armenia may recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh with all the stemming consequences. Secondly, the Republic of Armenia may sign a contract of mutual assistance with the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. There are ways, and I am sure that the Republic of Armenia will make use of these few variants separately or simultaneously. And if the peaceful negotiations are interrupted and military actions launch nothing will hinder Armenia to recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh. But today the reality is that the negotiations continue. Armenia has always stated that it does not see alternative to the peaceful regulation of the issue. Armenia thinks that through negotiations it is possible to reach peaceful and comprehensive settlement of the issue.” NA deputy-chair, member of the RPA faction Samvel Nikoyan says that Aliyev has made this statement because he was in a great shock. “He understands that the international community doesn’t vision the NKR within Azerbaijan. And he understands that the government of Turkey thinks the same way. This is his last try. He is trying to resolve something by a military blackmail. The logic of his words is the following. I have sold the oil and I have a lot of money; I have made my army stronger by buying weapons so I can start a war any time I want to. And the blackmail is directed for the two parties – Armenia and the international community. He is also trying to sell the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations to Armenia by saying that if you want to open the border give me Karabakh. The leader of Azerbaijan has been making such statements for years for internal and external use and has now appeared in a negligent situation. If there is no progress why they don’t start a war,” asks Nikoyan and doesn’t agree with the opinion that time works on behalf of Azerbaijan. As of the Armenia-Turkey protocols’ ratification and connection of this issue with the NKR conflict Nikoyan says, “Let Turkey ratify first. Indeed we ish this that process reaches its logical ending. If Turkey at some point decides to violate the agreement or bring up conditions not included in the protocols then Armenia will undertake certain steps. We don’t have anything to lose. We will only return to the point where we were. Turkey must stretch this time to get something on behalf of Azerbaijan in order to show to the Azerbaijani society that it had done its best. I think Turkey will ratify the protocols at the relevant moment for them,” says Nikoyan. The ANC abstained from commenting on the Munich meeting. A coordinator of the ANC Levon Zurabyan said that they would express their opinion after having sufficient information about the outcome of the meeting.