Storm in one glass of water

09/11/2009 Babken TUNYAN

And so, yesterday there were rumors in the media, according to which the US has threatened to Azerbaijan. In particular, the misinformation was that the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Tina Keydenau issued the warning during a recent visit to the Azerbaijani capital. It cited Keydenau as telling Azerbaijani leaders that they should avoid attempting to win back Karabakh by force or risk a formal U.S. recognition of the region’s secession from Azerbaijan.

The web site of the Azerbaijani “Eni Mustafat” party spread the information on Keydenau’s words. The web site though did not present it as an official statement of Keydenau but as a private conversation of the American diplomat. Sure, the U.S. government could not officially confirm such information. It could neither keep silent because it would be considered official confirmation. The fact that the source was Azerbaijani was already saying that the information can hardly be true. The official denial of the information didn’t linger for too long. The United States of America officially refused the fact that the U.S. assistant of the deputy Secretary of State Tina Keydenau warned Azerbaijan in Baku that as if in case of a resumption of war, the U.S. will recognize the Karabakh independence. In answer to the Armenian service of the Liberty radio station, the American embassy to Armenia clarified that Keydenau did not say such a thing in Baku, but she only dwelt on the willingness of the U.S. to assist the peace settlement of the Karabakh issue. And this information about the denial was spread by the 1news.az website as well. As of the US threat then the 1news.az notes that Davidson sent a note to the Eni Mustafat, which reads, “The information that you publicized on November 2 by referring to the so-called statement made by the deputy Secretary of State Tina Keydenau, is false. Nothing like that was done.” Yesterday this information was denied by the US Embassy in Armenia as well. Nevertheless, the media in both Armenia and Azerbaijan have already reached to issue various analytical articles on this matter. There were opinions that by this the DC has reacted to the militant statements of Baku. Moreover, several experts drew parallels between the NKR and Kosovo, by reminding that Keydenau had worked in Kosovo when it was granted independence by the international community. Parallels were also drawn between the NKR and South Ossetian conflicts with the only difference that this time an aggressor may be recognized Azerbaijan and that the protector of ours will be not Russia but the west in the person of the USA. The head of the press service of the foreign affairs ministry of Azerbaijan Elhan Polukhov rushed to advert to the circulated rumor by saying that he is not aware of the plans of the US. The Armenian circles paid attention to the following words of Polukhov. “Azerbaijan is not the country to treat her with ultimatums. We conduct an independent foreign policy based on our national interest,” he said. In this regard one of the Armenian websites presented the words of Armen Gevorgyan. “Polukhov’s interpretation about the independence of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy may be ascribed to the science fiction genre. Even the internal politics of Azerbaijan is currently coordinated by the Iranian and Turkish circles and not to mention the potential opportunities of the US.” By mentioning that the attempts of Azerbaijan of instigating a new war in the region imply a direct peril for international players and ruin the energetic architecture of the region Gevorgyan said, “For that reason, in this stage of developments on the NKR conflict resolution and the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations Keydenau’s warning, in the viewpoint of Washington DC is quite timely and appropriate. The recognition of independence of the NKR on part of the US fully fits in the logic of recognition of Kosovo by them. This will conduce to the long-run peace in the region.” It is hard to say why the pundit considered that the rumors spread by the Eni Mustafat could be true. As of the precedent of Kosovo then the opinions of the analysts in this regard are quite different. At any rate the enthusiasm regarding the assumed statement of Keydenau is not justified at all because the lady stated in Baku several days ago that Kosovo and the NKR have nothing in common and so the ways of the conflict resolution are also different. We asked the spokesman of the RA foreign affairs ministry Tigran Balayan to comment on the “US threat.” The latter mentioned that he hadn’t said anything in this regard because Keydenau didn’t make an official statement. “At any rate we had numerously said that Azerbaijan exceeds the permitted limits of ammunitions and that the militant statements of Baku do not conduce to the peaceful regulation of the conflict,” said Balayan. In a word, the extremely dubious information placed on one of the websites of Azerbaijan was able to confuse the journalists and analysts. Moreover, the Armenian state propaganda was filled with overt thrill regarding this information. And if we follow the saying “there can be no smoke without fire” and consider that Keydenau could have said such a thing then everything becomes clear for us. It becomes clear that our strategic partner is Russia and not the US. Although who knows what “unofficial” statements the Russian make. Maybe they are better at threatening.