– What risks do you see for Armenia in the current stage of Armenian-Turkish relations and in the pre-signed protocols?
– I don’t know whether I see the same risks as the others do. Of course, it is natural to wish to have normal relations with Turkey as a neighboring country. But the problem is to differentiate what the cost is going to be. In general there is one general issue. The Armenian government is in a big rush in making their decision. The decisions made today will affect the future and preceding generations. My second concern is that even in the event of the most positive scenario the cooperation with Turkey will not affect the internal political life of Armenia. Even if the RA wins in this process it will not recover the political crisis in the country, the lack of legitimacy and economic inequality. All this process distracts the attention of the public from the internal political situation. For the Turkish diplomacy it is a victory to see the growing contradiction between Armenia and Diaspora. This weakens our position in the NKR conflict resolution. I have another concern. Let us consider the protocols as agreements between the two countries. In our daily lives we sign agreements, which have points and if we violate any of the points our interests will suffer or we will be fined. But in this contract there is no word about punishment. My demand is that the protocols are as important as the contracts. So it should include a provision by which the parties will be punished if they violate the provisions of the documents. In this case nothing bans Turkey from refusing the fulfillment of these protocols later even if they are ratified by the Turkish Parliament. There is no point, which would define punishment for blocking the frontier for 1 or 100 days.
– May Armenia also benefit from the absence on the provision of punishment?
– Turkey must open the border and send diplomats but this is not a mutual agreement. This is the minimum option accepted in international relations. The countries shouldn’t be rewarded or praised for that. It is more probable that Turkey and not Armenia will violate these protocols. It was Turkey that closed the border and not Armenia. And the absence of this punishment is a victory for Turkey. So the relations must be normalized in a more balanced way. So what does actually Turkey give to Armenia? They are so kind that sit down to talk to us. Armenia gives more. It satisfies the territorial demands of Turkey, takes and cancels the issue of the genocide. But in this process Armenia has achievements as well. The first achievement is that Azerbaijan is not included in the protocols and is not a pre-condition for Turkey any more. The second victory is that this process has deteriorated the Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. But both of the victories are not Armenia’s. Both of these achievements originated from the decisions of Turkey. And I am worried that the Armenian diplomacy is weaker than of Turkey.
– Why did Turkey let Armenia have achievements in those two issues?
– Let me first say that Turkey decided to verify its policy. It realized that it didn’t work blockading Armenia. Besides that Turkey was hence feeling happy with Azerbaijan because its policy brought certain dependence from Baku. The fact of not including the issue of Azerbaijan in the protocols is more like tactics than strategy. But on the other hand, even if the Turkish Parliament ratifies the protocols it is not excluded that they may decide to close the border again in 6 months or a year.
– There is an opinion that the provision on “not mediating in the internal affairs of the countries” is a pre-condition related to the NKR.
– I don’t agree. It may also be used for the case of Cyprus because in that context Turkey can be as weak as Armenia. Armenia could have insisted on that by saying that Azerbaijan shouldn’t mediate in the affairs of the third countries.
– You are saying that Turkey is wishing to change its policy and get rid of the dependence from Baku. But the Turkish officials claim every day that they won’t do anything to harm the relations with Azerbaijan.
– Not always should we believe in what the officials are saying. Most of these messages are for the Turkish and Azerbaijani people. Turkey doesn’t wish to lose Azerbaijan but Turkey wishes to take away the right of the veto from Azerbaijan. The actual events are still ahead. The hardest thing is going to be the discussions of the Turkish Parliament, as a result of which it is not excluded that the ratification of the protocols will be delayed. But the US is interested in the quick fulfillment of the protocols which means that it may pressure on Turkey.
– In the process of the regulation of Turkey-Armenia relations it seems that Russia has submitted a neutral role knowing that in case of opening the border its influence vector in the region will decrease. Isn’t this kind of behavior on part of Russia strange?
– Russia is not neutral. It has supported the process from the beginning. In this process Russia so far has two achievements. It has isolated Georgia and Azerbaijan is now closer to Russia. It is not strange that Sargsyan’s invitation to Gul came from Moscow. If you remember it happened prior to the Georgian-Ossetian war.
– The statement of both Armenia’s and Turkey’s governments are almost unilateral and in this situation it is not sufficiently clear which one of the sides benefits from the process.
– Turkey has chosen to become the enemy of Armenia. Turkey committed the genocide. Turkey denies the genocide and has decided to close the border. The question is not whether I believe in the Turkish statements even if they tell us the whole truth. They should first prove with their deeds that they wish to be friends with us. This also means recognition of the genocide. We still don’t know whether Turkey really doesn’t want to be our enemy. They should still prove this.
– If Turkey after all wishes to regulate relations then why does it pay for including worrisome provisions in the protocols?
– It seems that several people from the Armenian authorities decided to pay. I don’t think anybody ever asked the Armenian society.
– Last week 12 political forces united against these protocols. In your opinion can or will this process have any impact on the internal political situation?
– I think that the real problem will come up in the Turkish Parliament and not the Armenian one. I think that the Armenian government is not too concerned about this union. The RA government was criticized both here and in the Diaspora. If the opposition is uniting for the sake of national issues it is too soon to judge whether this is enough or not. But this country needs a dynamic and active opposition.