– On September 27 Iran’s armed forces successfully tested the mid-range Shahab1 and Shahab2 missiles. On September 28 they tested the Shahab3 missiles as well, which are intended for attacking targets in 2000 kilometers distance. Iran’s defense minister came up with an announcement saying that “the tests came to prove that Iran is ready to annihilate any military aggression on part of other countries.” During the G20 summit in Pittsburg the leaders of the US, France and Great Britain strictly condemned Iran for secretly building a factory for enrichment of uranium. The US president even said that there would be a need for sanctions. The Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said, “Sanctions are not often effective, but in some cases inevitable.” Do you think the demonstration of power on part of Iran is dangerous for Armenia, which is hosting the Russian military forces in the region?
– I believe Iran’s policy of power demonstration will be long-term because the reason is the power vacuum in the region and Iran wants to take this vacuum. On the other hand, the international community has already shown that it is not able to resist and struggle against Iran’s power. I believe there will not be military actions against Iran. As for the economic sanctions, I think the sanctions have no prospects because Iran’s economic growth is mostly based on the oil sector. This is the only weak point where the sanctions can harm Iran’s economic stability and policy. However the Western countries cannot apply such sanctions against one of the major exporters of oil because it will result in instability of oil prices, which may destabilize the world economy. Maybe it is beneficial for Russia because it exports oil too; however I don’t think the Western countries may do it.
– Iran is actively cooperating with China, Japan and EU countries. Even though Iran is considered to be the only long-term and trustable partner of Armenia in the region, if they apply sanctions against Iran, Armenia will be faced with a choice again. Does Armenia have a strategy for this purpose?
– I believe this situation with Iran is not dangerous for Armenia. Anyway I think Iran will be able to escape from serious sanctions. Even if there are sanctions, according to the existing scenarios such sanctions will not harm the cooperation sectors with Iran, which is connected with energy, transport and trade.
– Even though in theoretical conversations some western politicians don’t exclude the possibility that the only way to prevent Iran’s nuclear project is the annihilation of the factories involved in uranium enrichment. Do you think this scenario is realistic?
– I think such scenario is impossible now. I don’t know what may happen in 5 or 10 years, but in consideration of the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan the foreign policy of Washington will not be able to start military actions against Iran and solve this problem for a long time. I think it is more possible to expect an attack on Iran by Israel than by the US. On the other hand, it is another issue how much Israel may pay for such war because this price will result in a new war with Hezbollah and Hamas from one side, and with Israel from the other side. I believe the closer Iran approaches to the creation of nuclear weapons, the higher the price Israel wants to pay for it will be.
– Will the relations between Armenia and Iran result in some deformation as a result of opening the Armenian-Turkish border? Is there any information on how Iran will react to it?
– The Persian media is not covering the issue of the Armenian-Turkish relations much, and I haven’t heard any comments about these relations either. The political and religious elite of Iran are escaping from any comments on this issue. Iran is following the process of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue attentively as these processes may change the balance of power in the region. I don’t think Iran is happy about this process, but it is not unhappy either. The relations between Iran and Armenia have become very strong during the past years, and the opening of the Armenian-Turkish borders may not result in weakening these ties but strengthening them more. As a result of opening the borders Armenia will export energy to Turkey, which will be produced due to the gas received from Iran too. In case of exporting energy to Turkey the capacity of the gas imported from Iran will grow too. From the economic point of view Iran will benefit from this process. From the political point of view it will not lose either because after opening the border hardly Turkey may become Armenia’s ally or strategic partner.
– Do you think the concerns that after opening the borders the Kurds at the borderline may easily penetrate into Armenia are justified? May such inflow have a serious demographic impact on Armenia? There are other concerns as well, according to which rich Turkish people may buy lands in Armenia.
– I am very skeptical to such scenarios. For example, let’s assume that the border is open. It does not mean that whoever wants and whenever wants may come and settle here. We have laws, border protection, and according to one of such laws foreigners cannot buy lands in Armenia, we have police and security too. I believe there cannot be any expansion of Kurds in Armenia. There will be problems because the surrounding areas have not only social problems but are a zone of the Kurdish conflict as well. However I believe that we have all the opportunities to solve these problems.