Nikolai Zlobin is the director of the Russian and Asian projects of the World Security Institute in Washington. His research and recommendations are considered by the White House and US Department of State, and during his visits to Russia he is usually a weekend guest of Vladimir Putin or president Medvedev. This year he published two main works, one of which is dedicated to the main issues of the current geopolitical situation. Where are the developments in the world leading to? What are the real challenges in this process? What is the situation in our region and in the neighboring regions? What can be the result of the boiling energy of the muslim world? Where will be used the American huge military budget which exceeds the Russian military budget by 25 times? Will Russia be able to maintain its positions in the region when even according to the most optimistic calculations it will be in the 5-6th place in the world economy in 2030? What is expected in the near future? What will be the basement of the Russian and CIS foreign policy? These are the questions we asked Nikolai Zlobin.
In the Post-Soviet region Russia is faced with difficult choices. It is more than a dozen of years that the foreign policy of Russia is failing. Russia has been left without support in the post-Soviet space (it is possible that the only ally of Russia is Armenia).
During the war in August of last year neither of the countries suggested help to Russia even though the Kremlin was openly asking for such help. It is a big problem for Russia and all what is happening in the post-Soviet region is partially a result of Russia’s inability to give up on the old policies toward the former Soviet countries, and Russia is experiencing problems with realizing that these countries have fundamental rights, as well as opportunities to be independent from the economic, psychological and military points of view; they can be independent countries and they don’t have to be under Russia’s influence.
If the Russian policy changes and transforms from the tendency of being dominant to a policy of supporting these countries to become stabile, sovereign, safe and economically developed countries, Russia will be the first one to benefit from it. But Moscow does not realize this reality.
– It seems that the official Kremlin does not show this attitude in the current phase of the Armenian-Turkish relations. Many people don’t understand why Russia is so tolerant if there are evident changes in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, and even after the Russian-Georgian war president Medvedev openly announced about dominance one more time.
– The process between Armenia and Turkey is accepted as a challenge in Russia on the one hand, and Russia and Turkey are partners on the other hand. Putin has called Turkey as one of Russia’s best friends, Armenia is a friend too, thus they are not initiating anything to be an obstacle for this process.
On the other hand Russia needs Turkey now for the purposes of Abkhazia and Black Sea security, thus Moscow is not interested in spoiling the relations with Ankara. It is also a fact that Russia cannot act as before because it feels lack of resources and legitimacy in the foreign relations.
All what is happening now is one step forward and we should appreciate the efforts of the Armenian incumbent government because they took this risk by understanding that would encounter problems. But I think from the strategic point of view Armenia can go out of this situation and get rid of the image of a provincial Caucasian state. Armenia depends from other countries such as Russia, Georgia and Iran. Now Armenia has a new window to the global world. It is better when you have a better opportunity for choice. It is clear that the policy is targeted at the future but not the present. Politics is the day of tomorrow. You should not miss this opportunity. I think that the economy of Armenia will benefit as well, and it will gradually develop. However the struggle for justice should always remain and one should tend and reach this goal.
– You are speaking as the ones advocating for the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border but fail to present any justifications or facts to prove what Armenia will benefit. On the other hand, the ones against the opening of the borders fail to prove the vice versa either. Why do you believe that Armenia will benefit?
– As Azerbaijan is gradually transforming to the global energetic market, and Georgia has been forced out as a result of last year’s events, Armenia may have the opportunity to have a status of the political leader in the region from time to time. It will change the geopolitical situation in the region. From this point of view it is very good that Armenia is returning to the big arena.
– I like what you are saying but please prove your point how it comes that Armenia will have such opportunity.
– As a result of the security and geopolitical issues in the region Armenia was unexpectedly discovered as the creative country of the region, which has advanced the other countries. The upcoming developments will be an opportunity for Armenia to improve the relations with NATO and Europe, and meantime stay Russia’s good partner and friend, and maintain good relations with Georgia. It will support the growth of Armenia’s reputation. You should not ignore the fact that Russia and Georgia are not in good relations. It happens that everyone needs Armenia and Armenia’s role in the issues of the region is important already. I assure you that in one or two dozens of years Armenia will have a totally different role in the region. As a result of entering the global environment Armenia will be in continuous political, economic, intellectual competition with Turkey, which will support Armenia to go out of the provincial situation resulted from the Soviet Union and make its voice heard as much as the voice of Azerbaijan or Georgia. Till now when speaking of the region they did not mean Armenia, now I think that hence the discussions concerning the region will start from Armenia.
– In your book you write that concerning the issue of the Caucasus the US is always faced with a dilemma whether to spoil the relations with Russia in favor of having a presence in South Caucasus. It seems that till now Washington has decided that it is not worth. What will change in the result of opening the borders? Especially in the existing condition when the processes are changing in a manner that the West wants to have a control over Iran’s nuclear project.
– I think the US will come to the region. Caucasus is a region where all big countries want to be represented. The approach to Caucasus is like the approach to the Baltic region and Middle East. And if you are not in Caucasus, it means you are not in big politics. Thus I believe the US will come to the region with the purpose to have maximum representation. However it depends on two factors: whether the other monopolist in the region Russia may allow it or whether the domestic elite would like to invite them to their area. The more they allow, the more the representation of the US will be and will control the situation, including the situation in Armenia.
The normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations enables the US to work with Iran to find certain solutions in consideration of the fact that Armenia and Iran have good and reliable relations. Certainly the US will use this fact to get one more tool of influence on the government of Iran. This will be one of the reasons why Armenia may become an important factor and be involved in global issues. Plus, Armenia has the factor of the Armenian Diaspora as well, which is very powerful in the United States. I have the impression that a lot of new opportunities will come, even though there will be many problems as well, especially during these one or two years. There will be very big expectations, some of which will not come true; there will be political and economic problems as well. The future opportunities will depend on the gradual solution of these problems.
– What general processes may commence in the region? What do you think the major problem is in Caucasus?
– I will answer this question briefly. The biggest problem of the region is the absence of the region. There is no region here. The region does not exist anymore besides the geopolitical meaning, which is taken from books. There is a group of counties such as Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and now Abkhazia and South Osia as well, which have pretty different development levels and political priorities and sovereignty levels, and all they are tending to different directions. Thus the people of this region should find a solution for this big problem; they should create a system for the region and struggle for the development of this system, as it is done in Europe or Latino countries, by realizing that the best partner is not the neighbor but another country in the North or an energetic center. As there is no region as it is, and it is not clear what the people of this region want, it is not possible to establish a security system and think of the development of the region.
Interviewed by Armen Zakaryan