Traditionally in Armenia every year starting from spring and especially in the months of summer new expectations, forecasts and wishes are heard on the possibility that in the fall the internal political life is going to be very tense.
In this regard the summer of 2009 is not an exception either and there are many predictions about the “hot autumn.” Despite all the previous years these predictions in a general meaning didn’t come true. Nevertheless there are enough grounds to assume that the autumn of 2009 is going to be tense. It seems that the developments mature quite fast in regard of the NKR conflict resolution negotiations. In this domain the international pressure strengthening is also noticed. Not the same intensiveness but similar developments are noticed around the Armenian-Turkish relations. Besides that the economic crisis gradually increases and the social-economic indices of Armenia gradually show plummet. And it is not hard to assume that due to at least these two issues the autumn is going to be politically tough. At this moment the main topic of interest is the issue of the visit of the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to Turkey to attend the soccer match. Sargsyan said that he would go to Turkey to watch soccer only if the Armenian-Turkish border was open or on the eve of the opening. Currently Turkey has stopped the process in this direction and mentioned that there cannot be essential progress in this issue unless there is progress in the resolution of the NKR conflict. And the super states involved in the negotiation don’t save any effort to register progress in this process. Therefore, till October, till the Armenian-Turkish soccer match the political atmosphere in our country is going to be pressing. “The international community doesn’t wish that the process started between Turkey and Armenia is cancelled. They wish that the window opened in September of the last year is not closed,” says political scientist Yervand Bozoyan and he doesn’t exclude that Turkey or the international community may accept some compromise to assure Sargsyan’s visit to Turkey. And expert of eastern studies Davit Hovhannisyan also has the opinion that perhaps the Turkish side will make certain steps at least to open the border for one day or make a statement in order to lessen the tension and make the visit of the President possible. But many politicians or political scientists, including Bozoyan, think that the soccer policy was not right and the responsive visit of the Armenian President to Turkey will the continuation of this mistake. “I have always thought that this soccer policy is still untimely. The full package of the resolution of the Armenian-Turkish issues wasn’t ripened yet. What they have started since 2007 should have had this logical outcome because the publication of relations Turkey has used for its own goals. For them this public PR is profitable. They keep maintaining that but don’t do anything practical. It works on behalf of Turkey and not us. Going to Turkey means giving a new breath to this imitation,” says Bozoyan. “If you play you have to play till the end,” and this is the opposite opinion of Hovhannisyan. Our two interviewees, however, find that although there is some activation in the process of Armenian-Turkish relations and the NKR conflict resolution but the clear results are not perceptible. They think that the sides haven’t come to an agreement yet. Therefore, they don’t think that due to the mentioned processes the inter-political life of Armenia is going to get activated. Neither do they think that the politics in Armenia will become tense due to the planned session of the PACE in September as the PACE will most probably discuss the issue of whether Armenia has abided with their requirements. “There will be no strict decision made for Armenia because over there they usually don’t make strict decisions. There were a few exceptions connected with Russia and Belarus but it wasn’t a common thing. That’s why I am pessimistic about the possibility of pressure on part of the PACE. But considering the issue connected with the NKR they will always keep the inter-political issue of Armenia a top issue. This is a way of practicing additional pressure,” says Bozoyan. However, the same cannot be said about the expected tension due to the social-economic situation. Both Bozoyan and Hovhannisyan think that the social crisis, which grows day by day, should turn into a reason for political tension. Moreover, they find it odd that the current hard social-economic situation is not sufficiently reflected in the political field of Armenia. “For me it is very strange that under these circumstances the political field is so calm. I wish that the issues, which exist in the political field, are more actively discussed. Unfortunately, in the political field we only witness low-level bargaining. The current economic policy of Armenia seriously jeopardizes the economic situation of the country. I think the political elite don’t realize this in a proper manner. Everybody discusses the NKR conflict and the situation of the people keeps deteriorating,” says Bozoyan. “I know that the political situation is quite tense in the country. In this regard anything can be expected,” says Hovhannisyan.