Despite a more optimistic economic outlook that has been presented by Armenian government officials of late, the country’s economy continued to decline in July amid a deepening fallout from the global recession, showing a 18.5 percent Gross Domestic Product contraction in the seven months of 2009. This means that the rates of decline will continue increasing. It means that for the months of January-February, January-March, January-April, January-May, January-June and January-July the rates of declines have a clear line of increase (respectively 3.7%, 6.1%, 9.7%, 15.7%, 16.3%, and in the end 18.5%). Meanwhile, the high-rank officials of the RA government have numerously mentioned that the anti-crisis policy of the government should have given its positive results by the end of the year and that the economic decline would be a little tempered. This means that according to the government the decline should have been less in July. However, as nothing like that has happened so far a question is asked whether the anti-crisis policy of the government and particularly the activity of the operative headquarters were efficient and what impact (if any) it had on the recovery of the RA economy. Reminder: the operative headquarters is on one hand discussing the possibility of providing guarantees to the projects of the constructors and on the other hand is discussing business plans. So far 5 constructing companies were provided with 10 million USD and two more projects worth 5 million USD were funded (reminder: the government has planned to provide the constructors with 40 million USD). The number of business projects, which received a positive processing, is 24. The part of these 24 projects was funded by the state and thus much of that investment is state-owned. Has the operative headquarters been efficient in its operation or is to too soon to evaluate anything? Different economists have different opinions around this issue.
Vardan Bostanyan, deputy-chair of the NA Standing Committee on Economic Issues: I assure you that the 18% decline of January-July months has many conditions, which don’t depend on the government. So I think it is not relevant to give untimely assessment to the activities of the anti-crisis operative group under the current circumstances. When speaking of the whole economy we deal with a huge inert system and here the done work cannot demonstrate quick results. In this regard, I think it’s too soon to speak about this but I think the upcoming indices will be much more inspiring. All I am trying to say is that we don’t have to run fast and try to draw final conclusions based on the preliminary decline rates. All the factors should be taken into account.
Vahagn Khachatryan, former Mayor of Yerevan, member of the Armenian National Congress: The government doesn’t believe in its own anti-crisis program. It has always been unserious to that and keeps being unserious to the program. And the result is that in Armenia an 18.5% decline was registered in the economy. Speaking about this seems quite unserious to me because during this whole period the government with its anti-crisis program has proven that it is not able to handle the process of overcoming the impact of the global crisis on Armenia. Its steps are not efficient.
Tatoul Manaseryan, Adviser to the NA Chairman, economist: I think that it is too soon to speak and assess the functioning of the operative headquarters. And time will show the outcome. I think the government is doing the right calculations and they don’t provide money and loans to random businesses. But here only the time can be a judge to assess the efficiency of these initiatives. As an RA citizen I really wish that these initiatives prove to be productive and useful and I am hopeful that they will bring expected results.
Movses Aristakesyan, deputy-chair of the Bureau of the Heritage party: If this operative headquarter was established to help the economy of the country its operation would be justified. Another thing is to actually understand the principles, based on which it operates. There is no strategic logic in their steps. They resolve easy issues by providing loans to targeted people. I don’t have any hope that these loans will ever be returned. These investments don’t have any influence in recovering the economy. These investments are made in dubious construction organizations, the products of which will be the construction of apartment buildings for unknown targeted groups. This is what they give credit guarantees for. This doesn’t resolve any problem for the country and cannot solve anything ever.