Since the joint announcement of the foreign ministers of Armenia, Switzerland and Turkey on April 22 to develop relations and create a roadmap it seemed that the ice was cracking and the relations between the two countries would develop.
However nothing has happened so far. Instead of that the processes in the foreign policy started to develop faster in connection with another issue, which is the issue of Karabakh conflict settlement. However, despite the active processes there is no tangible improvement so far. Even if there is any improvement, we wander whether this improvement is in favor of Armenia or Azerbaijan. On the other hand, the processes connected with the settlement negotiation, the announcements of the OSCE MG co-chairs, the rumors concerning possible replacement of the American and Russian co-chairs, the fact of discovering the principles of Madrid and creation of Krakow version of those principles brought some tension to the inner political field of Armenia. It is worth mentioning that in November the presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan signed Minford declaration, the axis principle of which was agreement upon the principles of Madrid.
“In the coming months we are expecting processes which are important to the destiny of Karabakh and the Armenian statehood, which are making the inner political issues a secondary issue in this phase,” said first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan on October 17 during a rally organized in connection with the above-mentioned processes. “They gave the Genocide, they will give Karabakh too… They have already given it out,” two days ago, after all the above mentioned processes, said first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
We wander whether all these processes made the first president think that they have already given Karabakh out. By the way, it is several years that there are such rumors. We wander what made Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who usually collects facts and opinions before making an announcement, to come to such rapid conclusion. We asked this question to ANC coordinator Levon Zurabyan but he refused to comment on the first president’s announcement. However he spoke his opinion concerning the settlement of Karabakh conflict, “The policy implemented by the government since 1998, the growing lack of legitimacy of their power, as well as insufficient efforts to inhabit Karabakh have brought to a situation when Karabakh’s position is very weak. From this point of view we have irreversible losses.”
We wander whether the parliamentary opposition power shares Ter-Petrosyan’s opinion. Heritage party member MP Stepan Safaryan does not think that they have given out Karabakh. “But if we let them they will give. I don’t think it is the case and I am almost sure that no government, including the incumbent one, can ever make the issue of Karabakh a subject of trading or indulgence or means to keep the power. We will not let them make this issue a subject of trading, concerning which they have given promises behind many walls. We will not let them do it with the help of the society.”
We asked this question to ARF representative Kiro Manoyan. He refused to answer this question directly. He said that the processes concerning the issue of Karabakh are done for Turkey. President Serzh Sargsyan has announced that in October he may go to Turkey to watch the soccer match only in case if the border is open or on the threshold of opening the border. As for Turkey, it will develop relations with Armenia only if there is any improvement related to the issue of Karabakh. “For this purpose the co-chair countries are trying to get a positive answer from Armenia and Azerbaijan till October 14. Because of being hurry they have not provided the parties with the revised versions of Madrid principles. They say they will provide these documents in the second half of September and they expect a positive answer in the beginning of October. They have maximum three weeks. Azerbaijan has not said so far that it will agree with the status of Karabakh even if their people want it be out of their country. It means that at least Azerbaijan has a goal that it is optimistic to win during these three weeks. In other words, I think that till October 14 the parties will not give a positive opinion concerning the main principles,” said Kiro Manoyan. Mr Manoyan believes these processes connected with Karabakh are artificial rashness, which cannot be beneficial to the Armenian party. Stepan Safaryan hopes there will be a positive change after the replacement of the US co-chair with Tina Kaidanow. “At present the most possible candidate for the US co-chairperson’s position is this person, who had a role in the international recognition of Kosovo. I believe Karabakh is a precedent of Kosovo, and the difference is that due to political reasons the latter has not been recognized yet,” says Stepan Safaryan.
As for Ter-Petrosyan, even though he believes they have given Karabakh already, he does not take any steps to prevent this process and is waiting for the rally due on September 18. Are not these processes enough for the ANC to organize an extraordinary rally as they have promised? “I think we are rather active. We have always had clear goals for organizing rallies and demonstrations. We are building our strategy in a manner to reach goals. We believe we will reach our goals,” says L. Zurabyan.