– Mr. Iskandaryan, do you think that currently the Turkish party is considering the issue of Karabakh conflict as a precondition in the talks with Armenia? Even though they used to say that the conflict cannot be a precondition of developing relations, recently the Turkish prime minister said that the borders would not be open unless the conflict is resolved. Has Turkey changed its policy?
– I don’t think there have been significant changes. Change of rhetoric and change of policy are quite different things. The process still continues and it is proven by the visit of the Turkish FM to Armenia on April 16 and the visit of the US president to Turkey on April 6. If you have noticed Obama met with the foreign affairs ministers of Armenia and Turkey. Does anyone remember a case when the US president would meet with foreign affairs ministers of third countries to discuss issues they deal with (but not presidents)? I don’t remember such thing. By the way, the statement following the meeting first wrote about the Euro-integration issue and then the Armenian-Turkish relationship, after which it wrote about Middle East, Palestine, etc. In other words, the process continued on April 6, April 16 and continues now as well. The process will continue on April 24 when Obama will not afford saying the word Genocide. The issue of opening the borders is outstanding now too. The rumors according to which they are demanding to give the liberated territories of Karabakh back against opening the border are foolish things. If it is possible to take the lands back against opening the borders, they would do it 10 years ago. If the process continues now, it means that the issue of Karabakh conflict is not connected with opening the borders. As for the announcements on part of the Turkish president and foreign affairs minister, it is done for their internal purposes first, and, second, at least they have to say something to Azerbaijan because they are concerned of the possibility of opening the borders with Armenia. Certainly Azerbaijan is trying to do something in Moscow or Turkey because they have lost their expectations from Europe. It was clear from the very beginning that Azerbaijan would not be interested in opening the borders. If Azerbaijan was so important to Turkey and if they counted with it, simply they would not start this process. Indeed they have started this process. The process may suspend due to economic reasons but it has gone so far that if the Turks try to stop it, it will be bad for them.
– Do you agree with Serzh Sargsyan’s opinion that in any case we will benefit from the process?
– I don’t agree with the president. If something happens, for example if there are some shootings, and the Turks say that they are offended and want to give up with the process, it will be very bad for Turkey. It will be bad for us too because the borders will not be opened. However there should be serious reasons for the Turks to do that. Azerbaijan is not such a serious reason and they knew Azerbaijan’s interests before that too. That is the reason why I don’t imagine the process stopped. The process may be delayed but not stopped, because if it is stopped it will mean that we are good but the Turks are bad. We are wearing white suits since we have suggested them to start the process without any preconditions, and the Turks are the ones who launched the process, came to Armenia, and after Obama doesn’t use the word Genocide they stop the process, it will be weird.
– The OSCE MG American co-chairman Matthew Bryza said that a document on the conflict of Karabakh may be signed in May-June.
– The announcements of politicians are not necessarily true. Bryza is demonstrating optimism because it is his job. What else can he do? He can’t say the same thing as I said above. What has changed to enable the conflict settlement in the nearest future? Do you think that the Armenians will settle the conflict because they want to open the borders? Or do you think that Aliyev may succeed in Moscow or somewhere else? Of course no. The conflict of Karabakh is not an intellectual issue. The problem is in balance. This balance does not concern the armies only but the geographic issues, human resources, lobbying on part of different countries, their representatives as well. It is 14-15 years that this balance does not change. The war between Georgia and Russia in August strengthened the status of unresolved conflict. It came to freeze the conflict more. The resolution of Maindorf wrote this fact on the paper: we shall settle the conflict through peaceful means and dialogue. After the August events two things became pretty clear. Firstly, the model of saving money, training armies and taking territories in ten minutes does not work any more. The Georgians tried but it didn’t work. Secondly, NATO will not come and will not help. It did not give a hand to Georgia either. Accordingly, there will be no war either. If so, how can Azerbaijan frighten Armenia, Karabakh and the Karabakhi people who are for the existing status-quo?
– What political changes do you foresee after the Yerevan city council members’ elections?
– It is clear that these are political elections for the opposition. No one even thinks that Ter-Petrosyan wants to become mayor to asphalt roads or clean up the city. He wants to become mayor for the purpose of having more favorable position and opportunities to continue the political struggle. From this point of view this election seems to be like the presidential one. On the other hand, even if Yerevan is the big part of Armenia, still this election is not national, thus I would call it a mini-presidential election. There will be political competition and it is clear that the authorities will not let Ter-Petrosyan become mayor; they cannot afford it because they deal with political issues. If they know that it will be local and Ter-Petrosyan will not do anything more than just being involved in municipal issues they would not care so much. Thus, the elections will be organized in the same manner as they have been in the past too. Ter-Petrosyan will not recognize the results of the elections. This has become a tradition in Armenia. Later we will see what happens, which depends on the policy of the West, level of violence, the opposition’s reaction, and whether it is possible to press down the active public demonstrations or no. However, I am sure that Levon Ter-Petrosyan will not be declared as the winner of the election and he will not recognize the results of the elections for sure. I don’t think there may be another March 1. Theoretically no one wants that. On the other hand, I think that if the opposition has some places of city council members, it will be a good opportunity to let the steam of the opposition’s discontent go out.