Yesterday the international media was full of information about the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev in Moscow. Almost all the sources of media construed this meeting as a step forward in the process of the NKR conflict resolution. Although many experts will be discussing the signed memorandum consisted of 5 provisions for quite a long time, the average human beings will perhaps never know what the two presidents actually agreed on during their two-hour face-to-face meeting. How concerned are our citizens about this meeting and about the future of the NKR in general? At first sight the question may sound senseless because nowadays the taxi drivers, the old men gathered in neighborhoods and the MPs, who smoke in the parliament, speak about this issue. However, when we remember the results of various polls conducted on the threshold of presidential elections we get surprised. Thus, on October 27-November 3 of 2007 the International Republican Institute (IRI), Baltic Surveys Ltd., the Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association conducted social polls among 1200 citizens of Armenia. “Which are the most urgent issues of Armenia at present?” 41% of the respondents said unemployment and 31% – the social-economic condition of the country. Only 19% of them mentioned the NKR conflict as an urgent issue for Armenia. Only 11% of the respondents mentioned the NKR conflict as number one priority for the country. The question “what is the most concerning thing for the population of Armenia” was also an interesting one. The first place occupied the threat of war (33%); the second place occupies unemployment and NKR conflict (13% each). It turns out that the people are most concerned to maintain peace rather than the future of the NKR. According to another question the pollsters were trying to find out what the government should do to deserve the trust of the people. Here we have a more negative picture – creation of workplaces – 32%, keeping promises – 15%, increase of salaries/pensions – 22%, improvement of the social-economic situation – 20%, fight against corruption 12%, etc. Only 3% of the respondents mentioned the regulation of the NKR conflict to deserve the trust of the society. The respondents haven’t mentioned anything negative about the failure of the negotiation process around NKR conflict in none of the questions. Meanwhile 69% of them believe that the resolution of the conflict in future is very important; 25% think that it is important, 4% thinks it is not so important and 1% thinks that it is not important. 79% of the respondents expressed an opinion that the NKR conflict must be resolved in a peaceful way via negotiations. Is it possible to agree with Azerbaijan without the use of military force? 26% of the respondents answered definitely yes and 51% said perhaps yes. Let us bring up certain data, which made a lot of noise. We mean the results of the polls of the ComRes company. According to those results Serzh Sargsyan was considered the best candidate to resolve issues – development of economy, fight against corruption, recognition of the genocide, prevention of the war threat, and resolution of the NKR conflict. Specifically, 45% of the respondents responded that Serzh Sargsyan is the best candidate to resolve the NKR conflict. Reminder: Raffi Hovhannisian occupied the second place – 11% and Artur Baghdasaryan – 9%. Levon Ter-Petrosyan was the last – 5%. If we sum up the results of the last year polls we will see that the people want to see the NKR conflict resolved, believes that it is possible through peaceful means, are concerned by the threat of the war launch, and that despite the fact that the NKR conflict is not the number one priority however Serzh Sargsyan is the best candidate to resolve that issue. Now when Serzh Sargsyan is elected president of Armenia the media is trying to raise that issue and make optimistic stability abut the ability of Sargsyan to resolve the NKR conflict especially after the Moscow meeting. But there can be nothing said about this as long as the negotiation outcome is kept in secret. And first of all the society needs to be sure what the status of the NKR is going to be after the final agreement. The Armenian society has a unique opinion about this issue. The questions of IRI also imply the following, “what do you think the status of Karabakh should be?” In the opinion of 49% of the respondents it should become a marz of Armenia; 28% thinks that the NKR must be an autonomous region of Armenia and 23% thinks that it should be an independent state.
