By judging from the motives of international economy in terms of indices Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan turned out to be more unlucky than his predecessor Robert Kocharyan. If during presidency of Kocharyan Armenia would register a 14% economic growth then in the opinion of the specialists it may never happen again.
Thus, according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economic growth of Armenia will gradually slow down. As we know this year it is planned that Armenia will have a 10% growth. Next year this index will reduce to 9% according to the IMF report. Let’s mention that the calculations of Armenia’s financiers match with the IMF report. According to the 2009 draft budget Armenia will have a stable economic growth and there will be a 9.2% GDP growth. 9 or 9.2 is already a dual-digit number. According to IMF experts in the next years the growth will slow down and will make only 6% in 2013. However the slow down of the economic growth is characteristic not only to Armenia but also many of the world countries. In its world economy review, the IMF predicts slowdown in GDP growth from 7.25% this year to 5.75% in Commonwealth of Independent States in 2009. The IMF experts think that GDP growth in CIS will slow down because of reduction in outside demand and pressure of financial markets. The fastest economic growth is expected in Azerbaijan – 16% in 2008 and 16.4% in 2009. Georgia’s GDP is expected to grow 3.5% in 2008 and 4% in 2009. Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow 4.5% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009. GDP is predicted to grow 7.5% and 6.7% in Kyrgyzstan in these two years, 6.5% in Moldova both in 2008 and 2009, 6% and 7% in Tajikistan, 10.8% and 10.3% in Turkmenistan. Ukraine will face 6.4% GDP growth in 2008 and 2.5% in 2009, Uzbekistan 8% and 7.5% and Russia 7% and 5.5%. Baltic countries will face following trends – Latvia will record 0.9% economic decline in 2008 and 2.2% in 2009, Estonia will record 1.5% decline in 2008 and 0.5% growth in 2009 and Lithuania 3.9% and 0.7% growth. According to IMF experts inflation in Armenia is expected to go down to 5% by next year. According to the minister of finances of RA Tigran Davtyan the index will be 4%. According to Armenian officials and a number of independent expertise agencies (e.g. Grant Thornton) by the end of this year the index of inflation in our country will reach 7%. According to the IMF the inflation for the same period will make 9.4%. However in this case as well we can console ourselves by comparing us with other CIS states. IMF expects higher inflation rates in the CIS (15.6% in 2008 and 12.6% in 2009). Kazakhstan is expected to post 17.6% inflation this year and 9.8% in 2009. The fund expects Russia’s inflation to be 14% and 12% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Belarus is expected to record 15.3% (2008) and 9.6% (2009) inflation. IMF forecasts 13% (2008) and 12% (2009) inflation in Turkmenistan. In order to reduce or prevent inflation the IMF experts advise the CIS states to cut or annihilate the customs fees for the importation of staple goods or subsidize the main food types and fuel.