Will the government be able to realize the broad-scale reforms, which it promised to the Armenian society and the international community? It is quite difficult to give a concrete estimation to that as the issue consists of a number of important and even unexpected components.
Tigran Sargsyan’s appointment to the post of the Prime Minister was indeed quite expectable. It was expectable because the rumors of the latter’s candidacy to the post were spread months ago. But one thing is rumor and another thing is the actual appointment. Nevertheless, after the appointment of the former CB chairman to the post of the Prime Minister was surprising for some people and meanwhile expected for others. It is quite evident that certain processes were launched and continue. This process may be even called undesirable and threatening fro some people. The problem is that Tigran Sargsyan was not from the “narrow loyalists’ circle.” In order to understand the whole depth of the abovementioned we need to realize the interrelation between the government and the major businesses, the main formulation of which is the “circle,” a group of people, who have power and money. These people live with other laws and rules in this country. They become godfather to each other, backup and stockholder. Indeed because of occupying the post of the CB chairman Tigran Sargsyan was supposed to be one of the most influential officials in the country but he was not from the circle. Of course he is not sacred either but at least he is not connected with the kebab and barbecue eaters’ circle. And it is obvious that the appointment of such a person would cause certain discontent among the circle members. They realized that regardless of their wish they will have to adapt to the newly appointed Prime Minister and abide with the rules set by him as it is quite visible that some new processes have been launched. Although in the beginning of Sargsyan’s appointment these people were trying to be more or less “moderate” now they cannot hide their dissatisfaction. The evidence of that is the show that was demonstrated during the Parliamentary hearing of the government plan. And this already implies certain seriousness because the circle made him understand that they also have their rules of the game and they feel discouraged when the new Prime Minister instructs them to use a computer instead of spending time on testing the new functions of the BMW X5 and instead of entering a casino enter the Internet. The circle has virtually started to challenge the Prime Minister. The second important issue is within the governmental cabinet, whether the new government will be able to realize the plans of the government agenda. At first sight there are people in the new government, who occupy their worthy places. For example, Nerses Yeritsyan, who has never been criticized or at least harshly criticized so far. And the opposition also says positive things about Tigran Sargsyan. So does the business circle. However I can’t help understanding how the newly appointed Minister of Communication Gurgen Sargsyan is going to implement reforms, who after being recently appointed to his post, succeeds in voting instead of someone else on behalf of the new governmental agenda during the last Parliamentary hearing (as claimed by the media). By the way it is a criminal deed. Now let someone explain to me how this person can implement broad-scale reforms if he is not able to reform his own mentality. And how can the Prime Minister work with such a person and expect some change from him? This is only a consequence of the recent inner-political situation created after the Presidential elections and the only way was to form a coalition and include the Legal State in it. And it turns out that the Prime Minister appointed Gurgen Sargsyan to the Minister’s post not because he is aware of the working capacity and professionalism of Gurgen Sargsyan but because the inner political plight imposes it. Let us review all this with the eyes of an ordinary manager. If you head even a small enterprise you know that you entrust the important work to the key members of your staff, the ones, who you trust and the ones, who are loyal to you. Now can Gurgen Sargsyan and some other Ministers be considered from the team of the government? Can the Prime Minister trust them? Probably not. But can the head of the government normally work with people, who are not from his team? The answer is again, “probably not.” The problem is not with Gurgen Sargsyan but the whole situation that imposes such activity of the government. Ultimately the implementation of even the most ideal programs and plans greatly depends on who implements them as well as the environment. In this case it turns out that the normal implementation of the government program may be hindered by the implementers. As it was mentioned the circle is not quite encouraged by the new Prime Minister. In addition to this the tension in the country also impedes the normal process of the government agenda implementation. Every little shortcoming and omission is sensitively reflected to the society and the society feels the mistakes and confusion of the government. In the event of such mistakes a scandal will come into play, which will also be instigated by the circle. Please agree that the government is in a quite complicated situation, which is full of surprises. Moreover, these surprises are full of negative consequences. And it is not an accident that recent rumors are circulated that certain conflicts may spark out within the government. It means that the main vector of the struggle between opposition and government is not moved within the governmental pyramid.