The RA National Statistical Service (NSS) publicized the economic index for the period of January-March 2008. This report is important because it is the first one since Tigran Sargsyan submitted his post as a Prime Minister. It is noteworthy to say that this time there has been no dual-digit economic growth. Compared to January-March of the previous year the GDP grew only by 9%. Let us mention that in January-February 2008 (when Serzh Sargsyan was the Prime Minister) we almost had a dual-digit growth – 9.9%.
The 9% growth is not a bad index either. Our government has simply “spoilt” us with a dual-digit growth. We even feel slightly worried about the reputation of our country because of not having a dual-digit growth. By comparing the indices of 2007 and 2008 of the same period it becomes hard to believe that in February 2008 we had presidential elections and the events, which followed the elections. Usually elections and political instability negatively affect the economy growth. First of all this influence feels the real estate market, when the prices rapidly shift down. Not only don’t we have such a motive but the prices have rapidly increased in the first quarter of the year. Moreover, the logic prompts us that the political instability must also affect the construction because during political turbulence the chance that migration level may increase rises. And if there is migration then the volume of construction should also diminish. But surprisingly we see that the volume of construction in January-March 2008 is 22.5% higher than of the same period of the last year (16.4%). This and other indices are showed in the charter. In the aspect of growth, compared to the last year the industry, agriculture and services volumes decreased. In January-March 2008 the industry rate amounted to 0.2% and in 2007 of the same period it was 4.3%. You may compare the indices of services and agriculture in the charter. The foreign trade indices most brightly show the negative traits of the economy. Compared to the same period of 2007 in January-March 2008 the volume of exportation amounted to only 1.5% and the importation was increased by 52.9%. This is another evidence that Armenia is turning into a consuming state. Only in the first quarter of the current year Armenia imported goods, which were worth 848.2 million USD and exportation amounted to 234.7 million USD. The situation becomes even clearer if we compare the large volume of the foreign trade turnover. The negative balance of the foreign trade in the first quarter of 2007 amounted to 414 million USD and in 2008 – 613.5 million USD. If it continues like this we will have a 2.5 billion USD negative balance by the end of the year. We say so because if the thoughts of Serzh Sargsyan expressed during the meeting with the customs officers come true the official volume of importation will be higher at the expense of legalization of smuggled goods.