The topic of the recent events and the post-election situation has been discussed much. However, if we look at the official statistics information, it seems that everything is not so bad.
According to the official information of the national statistics service, the economic growth of the January-February months of 2008 made 10.1%. It seems that nothing has changed – the construction capacities have grown much (22.9%), the services field has grown as well, even the production has grown by 3%. The situation is poor only in the fields of foreign trade: the import capacity has grown by 30.2%, and the export capacity only by 6.2%. However, this is not so important; the most important thing is to know where our economy is going from the global point of view.
Basing on the processes during the recent years, yesterday’s visit of the newly elected president of Armenia to Moscow, his meeting with the newly elected Russian president Dmitri Medvedev and other high rank officials, the interview given by the Central Bank president Tigran Sargsyan to the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper we can surely say that we are moving toward Russia step by step.
It is better to say that Russia is coming to us and we are accepting with bread and salt as we have done always. By saying bread and salt we mean the companies that are managed by the Russians now. We have numerously said that we can’t be sure whether such big presence of the Russian capital in Armenia is good or no. We can’t be sure about the indicators either. For example, the same article in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper writes that in 2007 the bilateral commodity circulation between Armenia and Russia increased by 65% and made $700 million. It is worth mentioning that 500 million out of the 700 million is the import from Russia.
The article also writes about separate fields of the economy, especially the energy production. It writes about the Iran-Armenia pipeline and the investment of the ArmRusGazard company in that pipeline. It also writes about the modernization works at the Sevan-Hrazdan HES and the plans of the corporation to invest $30 million during the period of 2008-2010. The reporter has emphasized the fact that Armenia is paying $110 against 1000cm of gas in case when the other neighboring countries in the region are paying not less than $230. Armenia is cooperating with Russia also in the fields of atomic energy, banking and communication. In fact, our economic cooperation is flourishing.
The reporter asked the CB president about the factors supporting the development of relations between Armenia and Russia. By the way, Mr. Sargsyan emphasized that in the modern economy the factors of time and trust are important. “Mutual understanding helps to develop good relations faster. The mentality, traditions, broad cultural community, which have always helped Armenia and Russia be closer, are becoming an important tool to support the creation of new cooperation prosperities and opportunities. It is more difficult to do the same thing with America or Europe because we need time, and the time is money,” Tigran Sargsyan said. In fact, it means that we are a nation which is saving its wealth, i.e. we have given almost all our strategic companies to the Russians in order to save time and thus save money. Also it is very strange that we can find a common language with the Russians easily because they have taken several companies at once against our debt of $100 million to them. As for the Americans, who are not easy to deal with at all, they have given more than $1 billion aids to us.
The reporter also asked a question concerning the foreign aids and the $235 million to be provided to Armenia in the framework of the Millennium Challenges program supported by the US. The journalist asked what affect it would have if the program was suspended. Tigran Sargsyan’s answer is very interesting and thus we are discussing it separately by parts. “Of course that program would help Armenia much. However, we are more basing on the potential of our economy. Armenia will continue the policy of market reformations,” he said. In fact, Tigran Sargsyan indirectly approves that the program will be suspended. It is strange because the minister of trade and economic development was optimistic concerning the future of this program. “The growth digits that we have now, and I believe will have in the future as well, will enable our American colleagues to recover the program”. Before this publication an Armenian newspaper had reported that the achievements of Armenia have made the US to revise that decision. First, Tigran Sargsyan said “enable” but not “make”, second, he used the future time and the local newspaper changed that tense and wrote “have made”. Of course these are minor things. The most important thing here is that basing on Tigran Sargsyan’s words we may assume that the Americans are deciding whether to continue or suspend the program basing on our economic achievements only. We thought that there are other standards for such decisions such as democracy, good governance and other relative standards. It turns out that we were mistaken. “Due to the close relationship between Russia and Armenia we will be able to overcome a number of problems, including the temporary suspension of the Millennium Challenges program. The activation of the relations with Russia during the past three years shows that the financial and economic problems in Armenia can be worked out”. This answer can have two meanings. First, it can be targeted at the Americans meaning that we can solve the problems without that too and we are not afraid of it, and second, it may be targeted at the Russians meaning that we like them so much that we have spoilt our relationships with the West in favor of our cooperation with Russia. Even Bush has not congratulated, thus we are expecting some help from you…
It seems that the Russians have given their consent long before. Definitely in the future they will love us more as they usually do with their strategic partners. As for the minor issues such as the gas, railway and other issues we can come to an agreement because we can understand each other better. The problem is that there are no partners to love. On the other hand, if they look for it well they can find.
Despite the fact that we have chosen the way to Russia, we have discussed only issues concerning the economy and money, however the problem is deeper. It means that we are choosing a long-term strategy to keep closer cooperation with Russia and from this point of view hence it will be more difficult for Vardan Oskanyan to speak about our complementary foreign policy with his western colleagues because now even taxi drivers can say that we have are a super pro-Russian country with a foreign affairs minister educated in the West. It is hard to say whether this evident polarization of the foreign policy is a result of the elections or the elections were the result of such polarization. In other words, would we become such a pro-Russian country if the presidential election of February 19 and the further events did not take place? Were we the same before too and these events helped us to see everything better? It is worth referring to what American analyst Richard Giragosyan told our newspaper during an interview in 2006: “It is important for Armenia to have someone, who can limit the influence of Russia. I think that the danger of Armenia is in being dependent from Russia too much. Armenia does not appreciate its strategic role well and overestimates the role of Russia. I would like to see such a leader in Armenia, who will have the powers and will be wise enough not to let Armenia become the consecutive victim of Russia”. Despite the fact where Richard Giragosyan is from, it is hard to disagree with this idea.
As for us, we are moving toward Russia step by step (or we are being taken there) with our quadrilateral coalition powers, one of which resigned some time ago because of announcing their pro-NATO stance, and one of which openly is against Russia. As for us, we are moving toward Russia not only because of the fact that we have good relations, but also because of the fact that alas we have no other place to go.