It is a holiday for the authorities on September 1. Every year they
meet this day with festive interviews. They tell how much money they
spent in summer, how many schools and school roofs they reconstructed.
Several years ago the public TV Station made abvertisements two months
long, that there were 44.000 first class pupils. There is no festive
mood this year. Only one interview took place instead of the expected
ones. The representatives of the City Administration informed, that
this year there were only 12.600 first class students. This is a very
low mark. The low child-borth marks that demography shew in 1994 is
already clear to the authorities too. There was a demographical boom in
1985-92, after which there was child-birth decrease together with
economical cisis. In the chart that is attached to this article are
shown the child-birth marks, starting from 1994. It is difficult to
understand these marks clearly, i.e. to understand how many first class
pupils we are going to have this year. There are several reasons for
this. First of all because of the fact, that during these last years
also 6-6,5 years old children could go to school. That is why it is not
clear when the children, going to school this year, were born. On the
one hand the ministry let them go to school earlier, on the other hand
the schools were interested in having more pupils as well. The reason
is the new school finincing system. Each school is financed according
to the number of children it has. The City Administration this year
took actions to stop the schools let five years old children go to
school, because in the result of the fact, that last year they let six
years old children go to school, the number of children going to school
was decreased this year. Only in Yerevan 700 less pupils will go to
school in comparison with the last year. This is official information.
While this number, announced one day before September 1, is far from
the reality. The directors usually enrol more pupils in the lists. A
couple of weeks later, the ministry, on the base of the declared
numbers of the pupils, sets the financing sum. And after the financing
is made, they write in front of the names, that “The documents were
taken back”. Usually they add, that “this was because of leaving from
Armenia”. I.e. it turns out in November, that the official number of
the pupils is reduced (for about 3-10 %). I.e. the society gets true
demographical information neither from the schools, nor about
child-birth. We can say, that if the child-born mark in 2004 was
33.900, now there are 33.900 4 years old children in Armenia. There are
two objective factors reducing this mark. First of all, they announce,
that the death cases of children up to one age was increased for
(reached about 5 %). And the second factor is the fact of migration,
which can not be calculated. According to the information from
California, there are about 15.000 armenian young people studying at
the collages and universities of that state. Most of these children are
those, who had to study at our schools and universities. Actually this
demographical collapse first of all had to make influence on the
pre-school system. But the system of kindergardens is missing now, and
the maternity hospitals and the children’s polyclinics have no serios
financial support from the state budget. So, first of all the schools
will be faced with the results of children-birth decrease, together
with its well-known reforms. The dangerous demographical situation has
been discussed by the armenian economists in a scientific level. There
are both reasons and results analysis in the economical publications.
The reduction of wedding marks, the first mothers medium age increase,
and the immigrations resulted this kind of demographical situation. But
the authorities never paid attention to these discussions. In 2003,
when first after 1994, the child-births were more than in the previous
years, the authorities were crying about this fact. They said, that the
demographical crisis was worked out and the situation was under
control. The fact, that this is just mislead can be proved by comparing
two numbers. This year 12.650 children are going to school, while last
year less children were born in Yerevan: 11.947 (also there are the
death and migration factors too). Accordingly we can say, that in six
years the number of the first class pupils will be less than we have
now. The decrese of the number of the pupils doesn’t start only with
the first class pupils. It is already several years that we are faced
with this kind of appearance. At least, the latest school reforms were
resulted by this fact. So, the results of the demogrophical situation
will influence on schools, universities and the army. It is pity, but
we have to mention, that this negative fact will not influence on the
labour market neither now nor in the close future. And this because of
the absence of real vacancies.
