As it was expected the phrase “2.5 billion USD” has become a topic for intense discussions. There criticizers, who though the numbers were not realistic. There were also supporters.
RA President Robert Kocharyan “splashed” gasoline on the fire when he reminded that he had inherited a 300 million USD budget before he submitted his presidency and the budget will be 2.5 billion USD at his farewell, which is 8 times more than the first index. And what should we, average Armenian citizens, do? Shall we be proud, glad or what? Let’s first start with the national saying, “Don’t say hop before you jump the brook.” The 2.5 billion budget is planned but it should be applied. Besides that the budget must be realized during 2008 but Kocharyan is leaving his office at the beginning of the year, in February. Thus, even if the budget is realized it’s questionable who the achievement is going to ascribed to, the left president or the new one. It’s not only this. They don’t speak very much about a no less important issue. Do you remember the time when the CB of Armenia put notes on the walls on malls and fairs, which said the trade in the Republic of Armenia is conducted only in AMD. According to the law the national monetary unit of Armenia is the AMD and no one has the right to trade in foreign currency. All that is done to increase the trust to the AMD. If in past any price above 5000 AMD was converted into USD now people only use the AMD amount to speak about their salaries or when buying household electronics. The purchase of expensive items, such as cars and houses is taking place in AMD but still converted into USD in mind to feel the comparison. Of course that is a good thing. For any European (we consider ourselves Europeans) it is unacceptable to speak with USD. In that case a question. Why do the first men of the state speak in dollars? For example, “we will have a 2.5 billion USD budget” or “I inherited a 300 million USD budget”, etc. How does this support to increasing confidence toward the AMD. We have asked this question to the President of the Central Bank of Armenia Tigran Sargsyan, who directs a state structure, which is most interested in raising confidence to the AMD. The communications department of the CB passed us on the response of Sargsyan. “The Central Bank is a non-political structure and doesn’t comment on the statements of politicians.” We can understand Sargsyan. How could he answer? If he says it conduces to increasing the positions of the AMD it will turn out that he is contradicting himself. If he says it doesn’t it may perhaps be his last answer as a CB chairman. Everything is politicized… But it doesn’t mean that the independent media cannot ask a question to the CB chairman about the monetary formulations of the President of the country. The reason why the politicians are speaking in USD is quite clear for everybody. That way they are able to maneuver the political field. If we succeed in providing the 820 million AMD expenditure line in the next year it will be very good. If we succeed then the dollar rate will fall slightly more down and everything will be fixed. And if the budget inflows increase by the mentioned amount then we will not only definitely have a 2.5 billion USD budget but also a 3 billion one will not be excluded. Speaking in dollars is also convenient in the historic aspect. For example when they are saying through the media “inherited 300 million budget and am leaving a 2.5 million USD budget” it may sound really great for the residents of Hamzachiman. They might even feel proud. And the TV channels don’t wish to break up the happiness by asking whether it was actually 300 million. As much as we know the inherited budget of 1998 was 211 billion USD. If we base on the mentioned 300 million it will mean that the USD rate was 700 AMD in 1998. But the dollar was never worth that much. Let us for a moment ignore the USD and review the things with our monetary unit. The 211 billion of 1998 must become 820 billion in 2008. That is expressed in AMD the budget was increased 4 times during the past 10 years. How much have the prices grown during this period? Everything must be observed through comparison to make the picture clear. In the event of inflation it is a useless thing to brag about budget growth. For example if the budget is increasing the teachers’ salary must also be increased. Let’s suppose it grows from 50 thousand AMD to 60 thousand. And instead the price of the butter from 1000 jumps to 1300. This means that if the teacher with his/her previous salary was able to buy 50 kilos of butter now she can only afford 46 kilos. These are conditional numbers but this is the real ratio. Perhaps the teachers or other budgetary employees get encouraged about the budget growth but immediately get disappointed to find out the new growth of food price. If desired it is possible to calculate to what level the prices have grown since 1998 but it’s a useless occupation to rely on the numbers of the Statistics Service because they are never accurate about prices. It would be better if our reader-housewives remembered what they could but when shopping with 5000 AMD in 1998 or perhaps compare the weight of their bags every time they shop. Maybe we should ask. Why is it mandatory that the prices must increase when the budget grows. It is mandatory because the increased inflows of the budget must be received due to the pressure on businessmen so that they start to pay more taxes. As a result the businessman must raise the prices. We cannot say to what extent the recent increase of prices for butter, wheat or other products is influenced by the mentioned factors but it is a fact the prices of those products have been raised recently. Thus speaking in dollars is convenient but not convincing.