Recently our citizens ask each other with sincere astonishment why the dollar rate is stable. In fact it has been quite long (starting from mid July) that the currency rate teeters from 335-336 AMD per USD.
The interesting thing is that the factors, which the slump of the USD is connected with, have not been alternated. In particular the transfers’ amount has not reduced. The continuous dual-digit growth proves that. One more interesting fact. As you remember the USD was planned 357 AMD for the year. According to the National Statistics Service (NSS) the average rate in January-July was 356.7. This means if the CB is jealous of these rates it can be quite lower now. On the other hand it’s quite an ungrateful work to make predictions about the currency rate developments and economy of Armenia. The logic, skills and experience are not enough to make forecasts. It’s also necessary to have a talent as Nostradamus or such “tools” as Tigran Sargsyan has. Economist Edward Aghajanov thinks that the stability of the currency rate cannot be logically explained. According to him it’s surprising because the cost of the USD was raised by 4% in the international market and nothing happened in our country. Nevertheless the economist dares to explain by AMD revaluation has ceased. According to him the main reason is that the industry abides slump and perhaps the elite has started to more deeply consider the issue and contemplate over it. According to Aghajanov, they realized that the situation is pretty serious. Based on the same logic he assumes that the USD rate will hardly go any more down than this because it “is off the hook” already.
We asked the same question to former Prime Minister of Armenia, economist, Hrant Bagratyan. The latter thinks that most probably certain pressure was put on the Central Bank of Armenia because such a low currency rate is profitable only for importers and trade banks. But it’s damaging the industry development rates. On the other hand, Bagratyan doesn’t exclude that this pressure may be connected with the coming presidential elections. According to the former Prime Minister, this may become a reason for a stronger criticism against the government. Regardless of what the reasons are, whether economic or presidential elections, Bagratyan thinks that the government is going to review its economic policies.