Perhaps one can state without hesitance that the coming presidential elections in NKR are pretty much predetermined. We may assume that Bako Sahakyan is going to be elected president, as he has been already been approved by the opposition and the government.
On July 13, analysts Liz Fuyler and Richard Giragosian published an article about the coming presidential elections in Karabakh. The authors have tried to answer, “Who is going to be the next president of NKR?” and whether the campaign is proceeding in a free and equal environment. “On July 19 the citizens of the unrecognized state of Karabakh are going to elect a president. The favorite among the five registered candidates is Bako Sahakyan, who had resigned from his position of the head of the National Security Service of NKR right before his nomination. He is supported by the current President Arkady Ghukasyan’s “Democratic Artsakh” party, the two oppositional parliamentary parties, and the incumbent government of Armenia, which means that Moscow also approved Sahakyan’s candidacy,” state the authors of the article. They have also mentioned that Sahakyan’s main opponent is the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of NKR, Masis Mayilyan, who blames the leadership of the country for unfairly supporting Sahakyan. According to the authors of the article, the last result of the polls prove that 19% of the population doesn’t believe that the elections will proceed in a free and fair way. “Sahakyan, 49, had his career during Soviet times in the National Security Committee. Mayilyan, 40, has graduated from the diplomatic academy of Vienna; Armen Abgaryan is a member of the NKR parliament; Hrant Melkumyan is the chair of the communistic party of NKR, and Vanya Avanesyan is a professor of the State University of NKR,” write Fuyler and Giragosian. The latter states that the candidature of Bako Sahakyan is supported by many organizations, including the Dashnaktsutyun party, which is part of Armenia’s coalition government. However, according to the authors, many monitors were expecting that the Dashnaks would end up supporting Masis Mayilyan. Fuyler and Giragosian have researched and found out that there is little difference in the platforms of the candidates and that everybody is speaking about the development of infrastructures, unemployment, and improvement of the social economic life. By referring to the Russian Regnum, the authors mention that Masis Mayilyan has said that the conflict between NKR and Azerbaijan can be solved only after Karabakh receives sovereignty and its independence is recognized by the international community. “He also advocates the idea of populating the areas liberated by the Armenians with Armenians. But it’s not clear whether he clearly refuses to return those territories back to Azerbaijan as part of a peace treaty,” write Fuyler and Giragosian. They stated that after the launch of the official campaign (June 20) of the presidential elections in Armenia, the head of Mayilyan’s headquarters, Sergey Kalantaryan, mentioned that the TV companies were openly campaigning for Bako Sahakyan. He also announced that there was pressure put on the local government representative of the Martakert region when the latter said that he was going to vote for Mayilyan. The article also mentions that Igor Muradyan has announced in Yerevan that the incumbent president of NKR, Arkady Ghukasyan, is conducting a pro-Sahakyan advocacy through all the means he has. After all, the authors of the article cite the words of Arkady Ghukasyan, who has stated that the “campaign is proceeding ideally” despite the fact that the CEC chairman of NKR, Sergey Nasibyan, finds it only “normal”. By informing that the RA President’s advisor, Garnik Isagulyan, recently announced that Bako Sahakyan’s candidature is acceptable by everybody, and that according to the results of the polls conducted by Aharon Adibekyan’s “Sociometer” Center, as of June 45% of the population was willing to vote for Sahakyan and only 5% for Mayilyan, and as of July 60% of the people were willing to vote for Sahakyan and 10% for Mayilyan, the authors of the article write that 19% of the population of NKR doesn’t think that the elections will proceed free and fair and 16% of those think that the elections won’t change anything. Also, a few days ago the ARF, “Democratic Party of Artsakh”, “Movement 88”, “Liberty”, “Free fatherland” and one person from the Union of liberating soldiers of NKR made an announcement. We remind that these organizations have all declared their support for Bako Sahakyan. The announcement reads as follows: “We, the below-signed parties, state that the election of a joint candidate and supporting him is far from any political scientific substantiation. This is a bad idea and bans the development of democratic processes in the country. That’s the reason we don’t share the opinion of several organizations, which are planning to support a joint candidate. We are asking you to make the choice by your own will and conscience on July 19. We and many other party colleagues are supporting the candidacy of Masis Mayilyan and are asking you to vote for him as well,” reads the announcement. The announcement was signed by ARF members Rafael Petrosyan, Samvel Vanyan, and Alexander Harutyunyan, PPA member Alexander Kananyan, Davit Karabekyan of the Liberty party, Grigori Avanesyan, and from Movement-88 Gegham Baghdasaryan, Margarita Karamyan, and Gagik Avanesyan, and one member of the NKR liberating soldiers’ union, Armen Gevorgyan.