About two months ago the foreign minister of Armenia, Vardan Oskanyan, and the deputy-minister of foreign affairs of Azerbaijan, Araz Azimov, announced that the sides are “closer than ever to the resolution of the Karbakh conflict.” No one perhaps related seriously to those announcements. However, a few days ago, a similar and even more optimistic announcement was made by the OSCE PA chairman, Goran Lenmarker.
The latter said that the key agreement is about to be signed and the sides only have to show some political will. “The OSCE Minsk Group has prepared a key agreement, where all the trouble spots, which concern the sides of the conflict, are reflected. The document is ready to be signed by the sides. All we need is political will.” Lenmarker made this announcement on July 5 in Kiev, where the 16th session of the OSCE PA was being held. He named the current status of the Karabakh conflict resolution a “golden opportunity” and emphasized that he became even more convinced in his opinion when he visited the South Caucasus in February. He assured that the peace treaty will give great advantages to both sides (let’s note that by saying this, Lenmarker doesn’t consider Karabakh as a side of the conflict). “Thousands of those deported and refugees can come back to their homes and restart their normal lives. Peace will enable the sides to develop the region through democratic reforms, and by cooperating with Georgia,” mentioned Lenmarker, and advised not to even think about a military resolution of the conflict. Is the agreement really ready to be signed? Does the Armenian side really have the will to sign the agreement? In this regard, the acting head of the communications department of the foreign affairs ministry of Armenia, Vladimir Karapetyan, told us “To be honest, I don’t know on what grounds Lenmarker makes such announcements, and I also don’t know where he found such exact information. All I know is that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been negotiating for two years around a document, which is called “document of Prague principles”. And the last stage of those negotiations took place in Saint Petersburg. And it’s known that the negotiations in Saint Petersburg didn’t give any results. Thus no agreement was made around the principles. And I don’t know whether it’s correct to say that the document is ready to be signed. As to showing political will, Armenia has always been constructive during negotiations, and we have the needed will to realize the provisions of the agreement,” said Karapetyan. In his turn, presidential spokesperson Victor Soghomonyan said that political will is necessary for the final solution of the conflict. Shortly said, the Armenian side is not as optimistic as Goran Lenmarker.
The essence of the “key agreement”
Nevertheless, let’s try to understand the essence, to know what the negotiations are about, as a result of which as Lenmarker says the agreement is going to be signed. If you remember, on June 22, 2006 the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group made an announcement, where they party publicized the principles on which the negotiations are based. Karapetyan also mentioned that the sides have been negotiating over the Prague principles for over two years. We may assume that the announcement of the co-chairmen related to the discussion of those principles. The announcement of the co-chairmen on June 22, 2006, enables us to have an understanding about the principles. The first thing we can mention is that the negotiations proceed around the “stage version”. This is actually mentioned in the announcement of the co-chairmen. “We have tried to regulate all the aspects of the conflict through a single package. Instead, we have tried to reach certain progress and leave the resolution of a few key provisions for the future, and plan further negotiations. This means that we are trying to regulate the practical provisions as a first stage of the regulation,” mentioned the co-chairs. They have also added that the regulation also supposes the removal of the Armenian troops, stage by stage, from the Azerbaijani territories adjacent to Karabakh, while demonstrating a special approach to Kelbajar and Lachin. This announcement of the co-chairmen was followed by a clarification by Vardan Oskanyan, by which the special approach is that Lachin is going to be a connecting corridor between Armenia and Karabakh. As of Kelbajar, Oskanyan mentioned that it may be returned only as the result of a Referendum and after granting a final status to NKR. According to the co-chairs the removal of Armenian troops from the mentioned territories will bring about the demilitarization of the region. According to the same announcement, the status of Karabakh will be determined through a referendum, whose dates are not specified. “The sides will be obliged to continue negotiations to decide the format and dates of the referendum. There will be certain mid-term agreements, which will provide Karabakh’s communication with international supporters. International peacekeeping forces will be deployed. A special joint committee will be established. There will be international financial support to disarm mines, conduct reconstruction activities in the region, and solve the issues of refugees,” reads last year’s announcement by the co-chairs.