The South Caucasus is once again on the brink of danger. The speeches of the leaders of the regional countries have once again turned bellicose and aggressive, and certain activities reinforce these announcements. Last week, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev announced on the day of the graduation ceremony of military school students that he will never cope with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, that Azerbaijan is ready to get it back by force, military funds have increased up to 1 billion dollars, the military/industrial complex is getting back on its feet, and that it will have its first output by the end of the year, and finally that Armenia lacks the human force to man the front line. Both the Azerbaijani parliamentary deputies and the opposition are talking about the immediate and unavoidable decision of solving the Karabakh conflict by force.
The basis of their decision is that the negotiations are unproductive and only allow the Armenian side to gain more time.
During the GUAM summit in Baku, before Aliev’s announcement, Georgian President Mikhail Sahakashvili was also talking about the settlement of regional conflicts. Sahakashvili announced that the time for the self-declared republics is drawing to an end and that recognized states will soon reinstate their territorial integrity. It should be assumed that the first of those states is going to be Georgia because, according to the president, the rule of current president of South Ossetia, Edward Cocoyta, will soon come to an end and a new era will begin with the return of the rebellious region under Tbilisi’s rule. In general, Georgian authorities are successfully implementing their scenario for the development of events. Their placed, so-called head of temporary administration of South Ossetia, Dmitri Sankoyev, made speeches at the European Union on Monday and Tuesday where he presented his stance on Georgian-Ossetian conflict settlement. Based on that, the region of Tskhinvali will be situated in Georgia. In their turn, the de facto authorities of South Ossetia propose to Tbilisi to hold talks and make it clear that they are ready for any turning point of events. The Georgian side is also ready for “any development”. That region of Georgia is already “bursting” with an enormous amount of weaponry, ammunition and technical equipment. The OSCE observers completing inspections in South Ossetia register the facts of violations of the two sides, but they are practically unable to do anything. Tbilisi and Tskhinvali are preparing or are already prepared for war.
Relations with Abkhazia, where the scenario of the appearance of a pro-Tbilisi leader did not work out and “stopped” at the Kodori gorge (the only Abkhazian region that is legally subject to Tbilisi), are more complicated than the relations with South Ossetia, and remind one more of Karabakh. Mikhail Sahakashvili, touching upon the intention of settling the conflict only through peaceful means during his recent visit to France, signed a contract to acquire two frigates. I think it is clear as to what that means. According to well-known Russian expert and editor-in-chief of the “Independent Military Theory” newspaper, Vadim Solovyov, the situation is very terrifying and it can’t be underestimated.
“The military factor has always played a serious role in Kosovo. It could be felt back in the 1990s when wars broke loose. Since then, an arms race has begun in the region, and there are always military trainings and maneuvers taking place in the region. One side, then the second, then the third make their moves. I am talking about the recognized, as well as unrecognized, states. The sides are using the military factor, highly threatening announcements, and warnings for the use of military force in the political negotiations that are overall unproductive in the entire region. In fact, it should be noted that currently the economies of the South Caucasus countries cannot stand long-term military operations. However, I must also note that the so-called “national policy” is also traditionally strong in the South Caucasus; in other words, there may emerge a situation when the official leaders of countries will be incapable of controlling the situation, a few shots will be fired and that’s it. This is absolutely possible. As history and experience have shown, if there is a weapon, it will be fired sooner or later,” said Soloviov to “168 Hours”.