Today in Saint Petersburg the meeting of Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev is planned. Recently, prior to that meeting, the region hosted the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group of OSCE and the acting OSCE chairman. They came, talked, and discussed, and said some optimistic things. Then they left. Parallel to that, in Armenia, certain noise was made advocating “not an inch of land” be given up.
One feels uneasy saying that we witnessed just another recurrent regional visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs before the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Saint Petersburg. The visit was officially referred to as preparation for the meeting in Saint Petersburg, and it is not correct to comment on these preparations when the meeting has not taken place yet. For instance, it is possible that in the cultural and criminal capital of Russia, Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev will come to a firm arrangement typical of the criminal world and agree on the basic principles of settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Nothing should be ruled out, even if it is obvious that during the regional visit the co-chairs also displayed a shortage of optimism. After all, like the artist who does not know when the muse will knock at his mind, a politician does now when the political will will drag him by his tie. Therefore, the politicians discuss crucial issues without ties not to let the political will corner them and have anything to hold them by. As far as is known, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will wear ties to the meeting in Saint Petersburg. Therefore, it is possible that the political will may play a trick on them, or they know they are not going to discuss any important issue but respect the efforts of the co-chairs, so let the political will drag them by the ties. Although it would be funny to watch, for instance, Robert Kocharyan’s political will drag Ilham Aliyev’s tie or vice versa. “Will you give in and not stay overnight?” the women asked her husband who was going fishing with his friend for two days. “Give in to whom?” asked the husband in surprise. “The guys,” the wife said, correcting her mistake right away. Will the presidents give in and reach agreement over the settlement? “Give in to whom?” you will be asking. The international community, the mediators, of course. Perhaps the presidents will not be so ruthless and will not disappoint the mediators. Of course, the president of the unrecognized state, Arkady Ghukasyan, is disappointed, but better he be disappointed who will soon retire officially and focus on his personal problems, than the entire international community, which has existed, exists and will exist in the foreseeable future. It may sound strange to many that the international community does not want to settle the Karabakh conflict. Of course, it does. In the long run, everyone wants it:Azerbaijan, Armenia, Karabakh, Iran, Turkey, the OSCE Minsk Group countries, Georgia, and maybe also Cuba, which may desire the settlement of the Karabakh conflict more than the health of Fidel. Everyone wants it, but each wants in a peculiar way. It is so peculiar, that after all for everyone the unsettled issue is more favorable than the settlement that not everyone accepts. And the futility of the talks is not only Robert Kocharyan’s and Ilham Aliyev’s fault but also all the forces who have interests in the region. And it is wrong to view the issue in terms of fault or innocence when reaching for an agreement is concerned. The international community realizes there is no proposal on which at least an interim agreement could be reached. Consequently, any agreement will lead to undesirable geopolitical developments. The desirable way will be the natural solution, the solution of time, which will be the consequences or results of the actions of the countries involved in the conflict. Not only the actions that are directly related to the Karabakh issue but also actions towards modernization of the political, public, economic, and social systems of the country within the framework of the policy conducted by the states. “We had very open, honest and constructive discussions, and talked about expressions of optimism or pessimism,” stated the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, more exactly Matthew Bryza, who hosted a news conference after the meeting with the leadership of Armenia on June 7, because the news conference was held at the U.S. Embassy to Armenia. «When I talk about optimism it reflects my personality,» he said. “I don’t mean by any means that we anticipate some huge breakthrough in Saint Petersburg on Saturday.” Bryza says his optimism is based on the continuous meetings with the presidents and the foreign ministers all through the year. Bryza said the differences are narrowing between the sides but are still there. Therefore, the co-chairs are visiting in the region to prepare for the meeting of the ministers in Saint Petersburg on June 9. «In Baku and in Yerevan we discussed points which the co-chairs think the presidents need to focus on, and if they agree, the mediators think, it will allow going on,» Merzlyakov said. How many, and when, we cannot say because it is beyond us to evaluate. However, there is the possibility for progress, and there is the possibility for agreement on the basic principles, Yuri Merzlyakov says, and Bryza nods approvingly.