The upcoming parliamentary elections are a serious challenge for the authorities, and it is possible to say that they are terrified about the outcome. In order to make sure that they really worry, we can just pay attention to the fact that it is the second time they are organizing public surveys for internal use to figure out how the votes tend to be distributed. The findings were recently finalized, and as far as we know, this time they are quite different from the findings of the previous surveys. There are many reasons, such as the prime minister’s death, the explosions at the “Prosperous Armenia” party headquarters, and the pre-election campaign, as to why the findings are different this time.
However, there are some parties that still have a rating as low as before, and their campaign programs are having no effect. For instance, according to the findings of the mentioned secret surveys, the rating of the United Labor Party is not increasing, furthermore, it is falling. It is worth mentioning that according to the previous surveys, the ULP’s rating was lower than that of the newly established “Dashink” party, but the difference was not very much. According to the previous survey, they both had almost 1.5%, but this time the rating of “Dashink” is the same, but that of the ULP has fallen to 0.8%. ANM, ARF, PDF and “Republic” parties are in a very bad situation, as their ratings are rather low. They don’t even get 0.1%. According to our information, the authorities have not taken any actions to hinder these and some other parties, as they believe they are not dangerous for them at all. They are more concerned about Raffi Hovhannisyan’s “Heritage” and Shavarsh Kocharyan’s “National Democratic” parties. The problem is that the U.S. and Europe have recently started supporting these parties. Definitely this is one of the reasons the rating of “Legal State” party is falling, and it has fallen down to 2.1%. Also the PPA and NU parties are in the same situation (1.7 and 2.0%). According to our information, the “Heritage” and ADP have attracted votes from these parties, as the electorate of ARP and PA are staying the same (they are attracting each other’s constituents, but their share of votes taken together stays the same). As for “Heritage” and ADP, our sources inform that the U.S. is concerned about the fact that the next parliament might consist of only pro-Russian political powers, and they will not have advocates in it. This is the reason the U.S. has started supporting “Heritage”, and Europe – the ADP. The comparison of the two mentioned secret surveys clearly shows that the ratings of the mentioned two parties have significantly grown. For example, the rating of the “Heritage” party has grown to the level of “Legal State”. Certainly, we can’t say the same about the ADP, but it is clear that its rating is growing, and it is difficult to predict how much it will grow before the elections. To note, the ADP has a very specific method of campaigning. This method does not include TV campaigning and airtime, but it is very effective. The ADP is visiting the provinces, but without notifying beforehand and without asking for permission in advance. They are visiting the provinces and meetings people in streets and yards. They are talking to the voters for a while, and then walking to another district together with that group. Shavarsh Kocharyan told us during our conversation that this method is very difficult, but very effective, as if a huge group of people is following you till the end, it means that they are really interested in what you are saying.
According to recent polls, the rating of ARF has fallen down, but not so much, and definitely it will be able to overcome the barrier of 5%. Furthermore, if the authorities were concerned last time that the ARF would get more than 5%, this time they don’t have to worry. As for Tigran Karapetyan, it seems that his party is mainly competing with the NU, as their ratings are almost the same. As we noted above, the ADP’s rating is almost the same as that of the LS, but if they don’t give up and go on with campaigning this way, they will be able to get more.
As for the ratings of the largest governmental parties, the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties, this time their ratings are very different. If last time there was a small difference in favor of PA, this time it is the opposite, but in favor of the Republican party, and the difference is bigger. The PA rating has fallen to 7.2%, and the rating of the Republican party is 11.8%. According to our information, some of the reasons are the death of prime minister Andranik Margaryan and the explosions in PA headquarters. However, it is not clear why the explosions have affected PA’s rating so much, as the voters like the image of a victim. Notwithstanding, our interlocutor said that it is vice versa this time, since the voters thought that Gagik Tsarukyan was very strong and nothing could happen to him, but they were disappointed to see his two headquarters blown up in one night.
P.S. We are noting one more time that these surveys are done by the authorities for internal use, and it is not excluded that the organizers may have reported other information than the reality to play up to the authorities. Notwithstanding, according to our information this is real informatio,n and the future plans of the authorities are based on it.