The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Armenia last week may be considered significant in that he visited his native land (as it is known, the minister is half-Armenian). He didn’t visit to discuss serious issues, nor did he pay the visit on the threshold of the upcoming parliamentary elections. The fact of the matter is that this visit was interpreted as a visit dedicated to the 15th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries. No top-ranking government official of Russia has ever paid such a visit to a CIS country, although the country has had diplomatic relations with all the countries for the past 15 years. This not only goes to show Russia’s attitude towards Armenia, but also that Moscow considers these relations as exemplary. As Russian President Putin said to Armenian President Kocharyan, “It is a shame that Russia is not the first on the list of Armenia’s economic allies.” So, of course there are problems, but there exist all the symptoms showing that both sides are ready to solve them.
After this significant event, Yerevan made an important announcement. In his interview with “Figaro”, Serge Sargsyan whom, in fact, Moscow sees as the future Armenian presidential candidate, announced that the supreme foreign policy of Armenia remains Armenian-Russian strategic ties, while the issue concerning entrance to NATO is not on the agenda. Thus, Russia has one loyal ally in the South Caucasus, through which it is going to try to solve its regional issues.
Azerbaijan is definitely worried in light of Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan. Moscow-Baku relations are getting worse and the main reason is that Baku has joined the West in the energy conflict between Russia and the U.S. That immediately reflected upon the gas/electricity supply. Russia increased prices and the Azerbaijani authorities were forced to stop receiving gas from “GazProm” and started negotiations with the Russian “RAO EES” company on energy supply. However, the pricing issue is still hanging in thin air. Moscow must not forget that pressuring Baku to the extreme may deprive Moscow of the chance to make diplomatic maneuvers. If so, then Russia may forget about maintaining influence on Azerbaijan, and the situation of Russian-Azerbaijani relations may have an impact on Georgia. Without the help of Azerbaijan, it will be difficult for Georgia to lead its current pro-Western policy. There is a gap between the strategic alliances of these two South Caucasus countries. Baku refused to prolong the deadline for supplying gas to Tbilisi under special conditions. Russia will probably try to take advantage of this small disagreement between the neighboring countries, although in reality it won’t be that easy. In any case, Russia still hasn’t lost its chance to maintain influence and proof of that is the recent announcement made by Azerbaijan, according to which Azerbaijan is ready to provide all that it has, including its substructures, to any country in exchange of implementation of energy projects, and Russia is first on the list.