Strategic duet: Russian motives

08/04/2007 Armen BAGHDASARYAN

During the press conference given by the foreign affairs ministers of Armenia and Russia, Vardan Oskanyan and Sergey Lavrov, Oskanyan preferred to speak in Russian. The Mass Media representatives paid much attention to this fact, as was expected. However, we think this is not a grave thing and that there is no need to discuss this fact so much. It is not so important; the important thing is all that Oskanyan said. The language does not matter, as he could speak Russian and advocate our interests, and vice versa.

What did Oskanyan say? He said that the presence of Russian troops on Armenia land is very important for Armenia’s security. This is true. It is a pity that Oskanyan did not speak about the “prices” that Armenia has to pay to Russia for providing such security guarantees. However, we know that price. Instead of taking money for providing a place for the Russian troops, Armenia gives the territory for free and pays some expenses, also instead of them paying. Furthermore, Armenia is giving its strategic fields and companies to the Russians to make sure they will not let us down. Why? Because, as Oskanyan said, the presence of Russian troops in Armenia is very important for Armenia’s security. In a word, because of the fact that we are not in good relations with Turkey.

It is logical that it is in the interests of Russia to do everything so that the relationship of Armenia with Turkey stays bad. It is logical that if Armenia has good relations with Turkey, we will not need the Russian troops in our country any more and will argue they either take their troops out or we will ask huge sums for leaving them here. In other words, it is in Armenia’s interests to develop good relations with its neighbors (first of all with Turkey), which is out of Russia’s interests. Now please think about the policy implemented by our government and about whose interests they are protecting. And the language does not matter.

You may say that Turkish-Armenian relations are bad not due to Russia, but due to the Karabakh conflict and the fact that Turkey has a specific approach to that issue. It is true. If so, now let’s try to understand what Oskanyan and Lavrov discussed concerning the Karabakh issue. Let’s try to find out whether the Armenian government advocated our interests during that meeting or advocated Russian interests first.

It is possible that in the nearest future Kosovo will go out of Serbia’s territory and will be recognized as an independent state by the international community. This is already decided and the issue tends to this solution despite the fact that Russia is trying to prevent that process and not let its traditional partner lose territories. Certainly, it is in the interests of Armenia, as this may become an international practice, which may help Armenia as well to solve the Karabakh conflict problem. As for Russia, it doesn’t need such solutions. It is logical that Russia is interested in “solving the issue of Kosovo in consideration of the principle of Serbia’s territorial integrity”. In addition, in order not to affect our relationship as well, they will announce that the Karabakh conflict differs from that conflict. This is what Sergey Lavrov did. As for Armenia, it is in Armenia’s interests to declare that “the conflict of Karabakh does not differ from the conflict of Kosovo; we are glad for the fact that Kosovo is getting independence, thus Karabakh should be independent too”. As for Vardan Oskanyan, he said the following, “Certainly, examples are important, but each conflict should be settled in consideration of the specific factors”. In other words, he advocated not the interests of Armenia, but the interests of Russia.

In a word, it has been a long time since Armenia has implemented its foreign policy itself, which is the logical consequence of being Russia’s outpost. All the other things are just small details.